tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post114668623466384134..comments2024-03-22T05:48:26.129-05:00Comments on Braves & Birds: Catching up with the Local Baseball CollectiveMichaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08365733949431139562noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-1146871016315198272006-05-05T18:16:00.000-05:002006-05-05T18:16:00.000-05:00Thanks peacedog,I'll readily and cheerfully conced...Thanks peacedog,<BR/><BR/>I'll readily and cheerfully concede the field here on the legitimate grounds that I don't know enough about the subject (though I'm learning from the volume of output on this blog).<BR/><BR/>I think more than anything I bristled at the notion that Sosa's utterly wretched pitching so far this year was something that sabermetricians were observing<BR/>and collectively shaking their heads knowingly. I think his terrible pitching is a surprise (to its degree), but I also understand that the metrics from last year predicted a significant dropoff from the lofty heights of 13-3 2.55 at some point in the future: a sort of market correction for a pitcher, if you will.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02525308050499798151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-1146781837871760922006-05-04T17:30:00.000-05:002006-05-04T17:30:00.000-05:00Goodness. What I have run into here? The United ...Goodness. What I have run into here? The United Front of Sabermetricians?<BR/><BR/>Joking aside, thanks all for the input. I wonder if I can play devil's advocate here for a moment in my completely unscientific way...<BR/><BR/>I did remember that Sosa spent a great deal last year pitching with runners on base (i.e. because of BBs), so it makes sense to me that his ERA was substantially lower than it otherwise might have been. <BR/><BR/>But it seems to me that you all put too much stock in these metrics if you think that a pitcher's collapse by FOUR earned runs from one year to the next is "inevitable" based on some abnormal metrics.<BR/><BR/>A pitcher, especially a young pitcher, can improve his peripherals. Brandon Webb comes to mind here. He had a great year ERA-wise and terrible peripherals in 2004, only to improve upon those peripherals in 2005.<BR/><BR/>Moreover, there are pitchers who defy these metrics. Take, for instance, Tom Glavine. In 2001, he pitched 219 innings and walked 97 and struck out 116. In other words, his K/9 and BB/K were absolutely awful. Moreover, his BAA was .261, so that his BABIP must have been much, much below average.<BR/><BR/>His ERA for that year? a solid 3.57. <BR/><BR/>Now, judging from the reasoning in the comments here that Sosa was absolutely destined to fall on his face, Glavine was due for a rough year in 2002. After all Glavine's one saving grace that year (like Sosa in 2005) was that he didn't give up the long ball.<BR/><BR/>Except that he didn't have a rough year at all - going 18-11 with a 2.96 instead. Now, frankly I don't remember if Glavine made any radical adjustments in 2002. I do know that his BBs and Ks didn't radically change, nor did his BAA. I also know that Glavine has had a number of these kind of seasons in his career, and the sky has yet to fall down on him.<BR/><BR/>Now maybe Glavine is simply the exception to the rule, but there are a number of other pitchers who have been successful with some unhealthy K/9 and BB/K. Russ Ortiz is a guy who comes to mind. Certainly, he has been terribly recently, but he had about a 5-year period where he lived on the edge and did well (most pitchers aren't usually successful for very much longer). <BR/><BR/>Now, maybe his struggles in 2005 are a testament to the prophetic functions of the sabermetricians, but why didn't he have his inevitable collapse in 2003 after a disturbing metric year of 2002? <BR/><BR/>In other words, am I allowed to raise an eyebrow at Sosa's high ERA this year? Is it really that predictable?Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02525308050499798151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-1146748721311529532006-05-04T08:18:00.000-05:002006-05-04T08:18:00.000-05:00What Anonymous said. Sosa's peripherals last year...What Anonymous said. Sosa's peripherals last year (home runs allowed, walks allowed, and strikeouts) were consistent with a pitcher with an ERA of 5. Thus, an ERA of 6-something is more plausible than his ERA last year. Unfortunately, his replacement in the rotation - Horacio Ramirez - also has terrible peripherals and Anthony Lerew isn't pitching well for Richmond right now, although he did have a good start on Monday. Chuck James would be the ideal fifth starter for this team (with Sosa in the pen and Horacio in the California Penal League), but I doubt that Bobby is going to go in that direction.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08365733949431139562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-1146703371615089462006-05-03T19:42:00.000-05:002006-05-03T19:42:00.000-05:00Ed,Here's where we stat nerds with the calculators...<B>Ed,</B><BR/><BR/>Here's where we stat nerds with the calculators and the computers outshine the tobacco-spitting scout types:<BR/><BR/>Sosa's collapse, by any objective measurement, was inevitable. Two metrics that measure luck, Strand Rate (from Ron Shandler) and BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play -- Baseball Prospectus), were heavily slanted in Sosa's favor last year. His strand rate was 85% and his BABIP was .269; major league averages hover around 72% and .300 respectively.<BR/><BR/>Throw in Sosa's terrible K/9 and BB/K rates last year and you have a pitcher who was very lucky. Indeed, every analyst worth his salt predicted backsliding:<BR/><BR/>Shandler: "Potentially facing the biggest drop-off of any player."<BR/><BR/>Baseball Prospectus: "In short, bet heavily on a regression in 2006, but hope that working with a real pitching coach taught him a thing or two."<BR/><BR/>Oh, and Michael, sorry to crash your blog here. Suffice to say I'm a regular reader, fellow Atlanta resident, and Member of the Tribe (MoTâ„¢). Keep up the good work.<BR/><BR/>JAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-1146690697639660822006-05-03T16:11:00.000-05:002006-05-03T16:11:00.000-05:00Regarding Sosa, how (barring injury) is a pitcher'...Regarding Sosa, how (barring injury) is a pitcher's collapse from a 2.55 ERA to a 6.65 ever "entirely predictable?"<BR/><BR/>I realize that Sosa had a pretty high WHIP for a guy with such a low ERA last year, primarily because he walked a ton of people. He probably should have had an ERA closer to 4.00 based on the rest of his stats. But still...we're talking about a current BAA of .330 and 6 HRs given up in 21 innings (last year, the numbers were .241 and 12 HRs in 134 innings, respectively). I don't see how this degree of horrendous pitching was written in the tea leaves.<BR/><BR/>Can't argue with the rest of your post. I have to do a double-take everytime I see Francouer's stats and find a big fat "0" under Bases on Balls. With the exception of three games, he's been essentially another pitcher at the plate.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02525308050499798151noreply@blogger.com