tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post7053577141438853300..comments2024-03-22T05:48:26.129-05:00Comments on Braves & Birds: Introducing Negative GrohmentumMichaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08365733949431139562noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-46633483035880784412022-09-23T05:26:51.142-05:002022-09-23T05:26:51.142-05:00kd 14
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Excellent read.Well done, Sir.<br /><br />Excellent read.Dawg19noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-5796404763966283492009-07-07T07:58:34.254-05:002009-07-07T07:58:34.254-05:00This is very interesting, especially in the case o...This is very interesting, especially in the case of Paul Johnson and GT. If net close wins is a FG or less, then GT had four such wins and one such loss (though I'm not sure how much close losses play into this), but if it is a TD or under then that number goes up to five such wins and two loses. Taking the percentages you already posted, combined with what some already consider a more difficult schedule than last year as well as the major losses on defense, and it looks as though Paul Johnson and GT are heading for a regression in wins this year.<br /><br />However, if my math is correct, GT had 14.28yds/pt offensively and 14.21yds/pt deffensively, both of which exceed the stated break point favorably for them to not regress, or at least the chance for them to not regress. Considering that it was the first year in Paul Johnson's offense, the first year in the new deffensive scheme, with an all new coachng staff, I would think that the chance of GT staying the course or getting better would be a likely outcome.<br /><br />Obviously, neither of these chances can ever take into account blind luck (turnovers, etc) or injuries, but it does give you a good starting point when making somewhat subjective projections. I would be interested in seeing where these numbers place GT percentage-wise with regards to possibly regressing.<br /><br />Also, do your numbers account for first year coaches or switches in offensive designs? I was just wondering if there was a mean to regress to if those were the circumstances involved when the coach was selected as COY. I'm not sure it would be correct in assuming the GT would regress to the standard mean that was when Gailey was around. Just a thought though.Jessenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-50854197755994866262009-07-07T07:34:40.190-05:002009-07-07T07:34:40.190-05:00You had me at "Grohmentum".You had me at "Grohmentum".Senator Blutarskyhttp://blutarsky.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.com