tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post7830513812129321949..comments2024-03-22T05:48:26.129-05:00Comments on Braves & Birds: Five Outlandish Predictions, Take FiveMichaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08365733949431139562noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-54296216876752684602010-04-05T18:54:55.177-05:002010-04-05T18:54:55.177-05:00I doubt that this comment will be read, seeing as ...I doubt that this comment will be read, seeing as it is on a blog post which is approximately 9 months old, but I just want to highlight that Ben's predictions are uniformly wrong. I congratulate him on this achievement, one even I (someone with tried-and-tested-and-failed predictive abilities) could hardly have managed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-24794999557589315302009-08-24T09:47:34.894-05:002009-08-24T09:47:34.894-05:00No problem, thanks for responding now. And yay fo...No problem, thanks for responding now. And yay for pointed comments!<br /><br />1. W/R/T Darren Evans, true enough, but relying on that same scenario to happen twice is a little bold, don't you think? As for Tyrod Taylor, I just don't see it yet. Nothing he has done has led me to believe that he will become an efficient enough passer to compensate for the loss in the rushing game. Plus their WR's are unimpressive and won't help cover for the mistakes that Taylor will undoubtedly make. I do, however, agree with the coordinator aspect.<br /><br />2. Completely wrong. They won the ACC relying heavily on Darren Evans to account for over 50% of their total offense, scoring just enough to win. Sure, they only averaged roughly 24 pts/g last year, but that was enough considering the strength of their defense. Do you honestly think they will win the ACC scoring half that, or even 3/4's?<br /><br />3. Also, all of those you mentioned failed your percentage break points whereas GT exceed them. How much weight do you put on those stats versus the arbitrary winning of the COY award? If the numbers mean more than the award, would you agree that GT has a better chance of at least standing pat versus regressing?<br /><br />4&5. Agreed, GT was inconsistent, but I would say that offensively, that should be less of an issue now that they have a year in the system plus the large number of starters returning. I also don't think that GT is getting anywhere near the same amount of hype that Ole Miss and OK St are getting, at least not nationally. In Atlanta they might be, but that's where they are at and should be expected. And even so, I don't see how any of that would lead you to claim that they are going to flame out and miss being bowl eligible. I'd say that's a reach.<br /><br />People still doubt Paul Johnson and his system and will look for any reason to claim that GT will fail.Jessenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-48499551684221113702009-08-23T11:50:46.840-05:002009-08-23T11:50:46.840-05:00I agree with Ben. Micheal has been drinking too m...I agree with Ben. Micheal has been drinking too much milk.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-49775867886228478152009-08-21T08:20:15.341-05:002009-08-21T08:20:15.341-05:00Jesse,
My apologies for not responding to your ea...Jesse,<br /><br />My apologies for not responding to your earlier comment.<br /><br />1. At this time last year, did you know who Darren Evans was? They have two freshman running backs who are highly touted. Also, I expect Tyrod Taylor to be better at throwing the ball. That program is really an offensive coordinator away from being very good; it's strange to me that Beamer doesn't see that.<br /><br />2. VT isn't going to win without scoring points? They won the ACC last year without scoring points.<br /><br />3. I went back and looked at the Negative Grohementum list to see first-year coaches who won conference coach of the year. Here is the list:<br /><br />Bret Bielema - regressed by three games in year two.<br /><br />John L. Smith - regressed by 2.5 games in year two.<br /><br />Ralph Friedgen - unchanged.<br /><br />Dennis Erickson - 4.5 games worse.<br /><br />Jeff Tedford - unchanged.<br /><br />Bill Doba - 4 games worse.<br /><br />Larry Coker - .5 games worse.<br /><br />Brian Kelly - .5 games better.<br /><br />The best comparators would be Smith, Friedgen, Tedford and Kelly, all sharp offensive guys who brought new systems. Three of the four were basically unchanged; the fourth had a sharp regression. The one question would be whether any of those teams had as many returning starters as Tech has this year.<br /><br />4. Here's my issue with Tech: the offense was outstanding at times last year, but it was inconsistent. It was terrific against Miami and Georgia, but those games were bookended by bad games against UNC and LSU. In order to get beyond 8-4, the offense will need to be consistently good. Maybe that comes in year two, but I'm going to guess that there are still going to be some subpar performances.<br /><br />5. I'm reticent to believe that Ole Miss and Oklahoma State are going to have great seasons this year because programs like that that get a lot of hype before the season tend to flame out. It's hard to meet expectations when you don't have a lot of talent and are not used to being the hunted. Wouldn't the same reasoning apply to Tech?Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08365733949431139562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-51375075693258971002009-08-21T07:43:54.622-05:002009-08-21T07:43:54.622-05:00I feel like you are trying to bait me Michael, wit...I feel like you are trying to bait me Michael, with your GT prediction.<br /><br />I think you are overrating VPI and underrating GT. In case you haven't been following, VPI lost their RB for the year. You know, the same one that averaged almost 150 yds/g over the last seven games, the guy that produced more than half of their entire offense as it realtes to pts/g and yds/g. They have a stought defense, no doubt, but they aren't going to win without scoring some ponts, and having to lean heavily on a very bad passing game led by a mediocre passer in Tyrod Taylor just isn't going to get it done.<br /><br />As for GT and your applying of the Negative Grohmentum, I disagree. You never responded to my questions concernign GT in your original post. Essentially, according to your own percentage break points, GT passed on all accounts which would lead to the thought that GT should not be affected by negative Grohmentum.<br /><br />Here's the original comments:<br /><br />"This is very interesting, especially in the case of Paul Johnson and GT. If net close wins is a FG or less, then GT had four such wins and one such loss (though I'm not sure how much close losses play into this), but if it is a TD or under then that number goes up to five such wins and two loses. Taking the percentages you already posted, combined with what some already consider a more difficult schedule than last year as well as the major losses on defense, and it looks as though Paul Johnson and GT are heading for a regression in wins this year.<br /><br />However, if my math is correct, GT had 14.28yds/pt offensively and 14.21yds/pt deffensively, both of which exceed the stated break point favorably for them to not regress, or at least the chance for them to not regress. Considering that it was the first year in Paul Johnson's offense, the first year in the new deffensive scheme, with an all new coachng staff, I would think that the chance of GT staying the course or getting better would be a likely outcome.<br /><br />Obviously, neither of these chances can ever take into account blind luck (turnovers, etc) or injuries, but it does give you a good starting point when making somewhat subjective projections. I would be interested in seeing where these numbers place GT percentage-wise with regards to possibly regressing.<br /><br />Also, do your numbers account for first year coaches or switches in offensive designs? I was just wondering if there was a mean to regress to if those were the circumstances involved when the coach was selected as COY. I'm not sure it would be correct in assuming the GT would regress to the standard mean that was when Gailey was around. Just a thought though."<br /><br />You did not use GT's number in your original post, so I would still be interested in seeing how those numbers I calculated stack up in your metric. I'd also be interesting in hearing your thoughts on my questions.Jessenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-87164524109156962152009-08-20T12:46:50.561-05:002009-08-20T12:46:50.561-05:00I don't think Spurrier will go anywhere. If h...I don't think Spurrier will go anywhere. If he does, Ellis Johnson might be the frontrunner.chghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08299359954137090528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11175154.post-59704777238819514002009-08-20T08:30:40.784-05:002009-08-20T08:30:40.784-05:00I have a feeling Ben will win out this year..........I have a feeling Ben will win out this year.........<br /><br />CarlosAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04646975534546809732noreply@blogger.com