Cue John Lovitz

Sam Donaldson: Vice-President Bush, there are millions of homeless in this country - children who go hungry, and lacking in other basic necessities. How would the Bush administration achieve your stated goal of making this a kinder, gentler nation?

George Bush: Well, that is a big problem, Sam, and unfortunately the format of these debates makes it hard to give you a complete answer. If I had more time, I could spell out the program in greater detail, but I'm afraid, in a short answer like this, all I can say is we're on track - we can do more - but we're getting the job done, so let's stay on course, a thousand points of light. Well, unfortunately, I guess my time is up.

Diane Sawyer: Mr. Vice-President, you still have a minute-twenty.

George Bush: What? That can't be right. I must have spoken for at least two minutes.

Diane Sawyer: No, just forty seconds, Mr. Vice-President.

George Bush: Really? Well, if I didn't use the time then, I must have just used the time now, talking about it.

Diane Sawyer: No, no, Mr. Vice-President, it's not being counted against you.

George Bush: Well, I just don't want it to count against Governor Dukakis' time.

Diane Sawyer: It won't. It will come out of the post-debate commentary.

George Bush: Do you think that's a good idea?

Diane Sawyer: You still have a minute-twenty, Mr. Vice-President.

George Bush: Well, more has to be done, sure. But the programs we have in place are doing the job, so let's keep on track and stay the course.

Diane Sawyer: You have fifty seconds left, Mr. Vice-President.

George Bush: Let me sum up. On track, stay the course. Thousand points of light.

Diane Sawyer: Governor Dukakis. Rebuttal?

Michael Dukakis: I can't believe I'm losing to this guy!

Who’s in the Mood for an Exercise in Generalization?

My operative theory on why the Big Ten underperforms despite outpacing every major conference other than the SEC in revenue generation is that the conference’s members do not spend their lucre on hiring brand name coaches. Rather, because of the Midwestern cultural bias towards blandness, they hire guys like Tim Brewster and Danny Hope instead of Bobby Petrino and Steve Spurrier because G-d forbid we pay for clothes and a car that make us look … flashy!

Michigan’s hire of Brady Hoke might have been the result of simple desperation. Dave Brandon assumed that he had Jim Harbaugh in the bag and when Harbaugh had second thoughts after NFL teams started chasing him, Brandon was left without a Plan B. However, the Hoke hire might also have been a classic example of what I’m talking about. With the money that Michigan potentially has to spend on a head coach, Brandon could have gone from candidate to candidate with the pitch “how would you like $4 million per year to coach a famous program in a famous stadium?” Instead, he picked the desperate girl whom he knew would go home with him the minute he raised the possibility. (Who knew that Dave Brandon and Cristiano Ronaldo have something in common?) To speculate for a moment, Brandon’s Midwestern sensibilities made him more likely to pick an unassuming guy without, you know, a big ego caused by numerous on-field successes.

With Hoke onboard and the rational members of the Michigan fan base thoroughly unimpressed, the PR machine has to go into full swing. What better way to sell the guy to your fan base than by portraying the new coach as a simple everyman? Short of finding a picture of Hoke driving into the parking lot of a Meijer in a Dodge Stratus, Michael Spath hits all of the notes with a frankly ludicrous piece. Spath’s thesis is that “almost everyone [in Michigan’s athletic department] is already impressed.” (Thank heavens that the athletic department won’t be acting to undermine the head coach by cooperating with the Detroit Free Press on a chilling expose that leads to the conclusion that Michigan was misclassifying ten minutes of stretching at the start of each practice! I guess that’s progress.) Spath’s evidence? I hope you’re sitting down for this: Hoke didn’t play Score-O at a Michigan hockey game. I shit you not, the following two paragraphs made it into a major online publication:

Three years earlier, Rich Rodriguez donned a Maize and Blue hockey jersey and took a stab at Score-O - the second-period intermission game in which three contestants attempt to slide a shot from the blue-line through a tiny opening into the net. The student section roared with delight. That was Rodriguez's way and that didn't make it wrong but his occupation of the spotlight did offend some folks.

Flash-forward (or rewind) to Friday night. Hoke stepped onto the ice from the north entrance wearing jeans and an untucked collared blue shirt. He looked uncomfortable as the patrons rose to their feet just as he appeared a bit out of sorts at a men's basketball game a few weeks ago. Hoke probably would have retreated quickly, disappearing out of sight, but the band broke into a rendition of The Victors and Hoke was soon pumping his fists in unison with the crowd.

If there are actually a non-trivial number of Michigan fans who were offended that Rich Rodriguez played Score-O between periods at a hockey game, then the program has bigger problems than I thought. Heaven forbid that the highest-paid employee at the University of Michigan, the man up front for the winningest program in college football history actually acknowledges that he is in the spotlight! Thank goodness that we’ve hired a guy who is going to do his work in front of 110,000 paying customers and millions watching on TV, but is uncomfortable with attention. This is bound to work out well!

Spath’s second piece of evidence is testimony from a current Michigan assistant coach that Hoke doesn’t engage in self-promotion. Leaving aside the obvious “what the hell do you think an assistant coach is going to say to a reporter about his boss?” factor, it seems fairly clear to me that Hoke doesn’t engage in self-promotion because he has nothing to promote! On a related note, I would like to brag that I am a committed husband because I haven’t slept with Salma Hayek. Thank goodness that Michigan doesn’t have a larger-than-life figure as its head coach. We all know that the program couldn’t prosper with a guy like that.

As with Dave Brandon’s "I stared into his eyes and saw his soul" defense of an indefensible hire, there are two possibilities here. One is that Spath is doing his best to make the best of a bad situation. Michigan has hired a coach with an underwhelming resume, so let’s find some way to build the guy up. How about the fact that he looks like a slob!?! The second is that Hoke’s underwhelming persona is actually a positive. If that’s the case, then Spath’s mindset is the Platonic ideal of why Big Ten football fails. It is generally (but not universally) true that successful head coaches have big egos. The level of adulation that fans and the media heap on coaches who win makes this a natural result. If having an ego is a red flag for Big Ten programs, then they’ll just keep hiring guys who get broiled 49-7 in Orlando. If the focus is on having rock-ribbed, square-jawed Midwesterners instead of guys who have actually won things, then the league can look forward to more 0-4 New Year’s Days. Southerners can be as provincial as anyone, but at least we demand that our ADs hire on the basis of credentials instead of stereotypes.

And as if on Cue...

Arthur Blank channels Hyman Roth:

The Atlanta Falcons moved a step closer toward a possible new home field Tuesday, after the Georgia World Congress Center Authority signaled it is ready to move into detailed talks on the matter.

The Authority agreed to enter into a “memorandum of understanding” with the Falcons on plans for a potential $700 million open-air stadium downtown.

Both parties emphasized the memorandum does not constitute a done deal, but rather allows them to begin negotiations over details of the project, including financing.

But the Falcons have made it clear that they want a new open-air stadium, rejecting alternatives such as expanding the Georgia Dome, adding a retractable roof to the facility or building a new dome with a retractable roof.

I suppose that we are supposed to feel good that the new stadium is going to be paid for by a hotel tax, so the expense of Blank's new palace will fall on out-of-towners, but why can't we keep the tax and spend it on something useful like, say, roads or college tuition? And has anyone gone to the Dome and said "gee, this facility is inadequate and outdated?" There is nothing wrong with the existing facility and the Falcons are perfectly capable of competing in the NFL with their existing revenue streams. This isn't about keeping the Falcons, improving the fan experience, or maintaining the team's ability to compete. It's simply about maximizing profit for a private entity.

Speaking of revenue streams, it's interesting to me that the socialist structure of the NFL ends up undercutting the rationale of its teams to demand public money. Because Major League Baseball payrolls are uncapped, a baseball team can argue that it needs a sweetheart stadium deal in order to spend on better players. In that instance, the local electorate can weigh the expense against the positive psychological impact of having a winning team. In the NFL, teams are going to have roughly the same player payroll regardless of how much they are making on their stadium. There's no reason for a city to enrich the local NFL team in order to produce wins. Instead, the NFL is ruthless enough to leave the second biggest market in the country without a team as a way to extort other cities, so they provide the stick rather than the carrot.

Oh, Orson

This is the sort of thing that only I care about:

IT'S A SPRAIN OH GIMME DA SPRAY. That three overpaid medics did not come out immediately and revive Aaron Murray's sprained ankle with magic spray is proof that Georgia is not a professional European football team. Anyone who watches their fair share knows that the magic spray is all you need to recover from a major soccer injury, often reviving an apparently dead man in a matter of seconds. When Italians have heart attacks, it's often applied directly to the chest and works in half the time. This is really all a roundabout way of saying that Aaron Murray's ankle is fine, and that if your national soccer team is not named Spain and has a coastline bordering the Mediterranean, you play an abominable, despicable form of the game and should be ejected from international competition forever based on style alone.*

*You too, Portugal.

Ahem...

Five Thoughts on Barca-Arsenal

1. It seems sacrilegious to criticize Pep Guardiola for anything, but he made a major mistake pulling David Villa off and that was a factor that turned the game.  At the time that Guardiola made the move, Messi and Villa had been making outstanding combinations to take advantage of Arsenal playing a high defensive line.  Villa had slipped Messi in for a breakaway that Messi dinked wide; Messi returned the favor and Villa scored Barca’s goal.  When Villa came off, Messi lost his partner in the middle of attack.  Additionally, the move pushed Andres Iniesta out wide, which further weakened Barca’s offensive presence in the middle of the pitch.  The move seemed timid, which is rare for Guardiola.  Michael Cox agrees:

Guardiola’s decision to bring on Seydou Keita for David Villa on 67 minutes looks like a mistake in hindsight. Barcelona pushed Iniesta forward into the front three but they had less attacking threat – they sat back too much and focused on keeping possession rather than looking for further chances.

Wenger made an attacking switch – Song off, Arshavin on, and Nasri into the middle of the pitch. Those two substitutions happened at the same time, so it wasn’t either manager responding to the other, but it worked nicely for Arsenal. Whilst taking off their holding midfielder was something of a risk, the fact that Barcelona no longer had a driving, attack-minded central midfielder meant it wasn’t an issue. Song’s absence meant Iniesta would have thrived in the centre of midfield – the two were in direct competition.

2. To me, the difference in this Arsenal team and the edition from last year is Jack Wilshere.  Over the last several years, Arsenal have had good attacking players (especially when Robin van Persie is healthy), but the midfielders behind them have been suspect.  Wilshere is a revelation, an English midfielder who can actually pass the ball.  There are a number of troglodytes in England who are going to owe Arsene Wenger an apology when Wilshere gives the Three Lions something they haven’t had in years.  Wilshere is the platform off of which Fabregas, Nasri, and Walcott can function.  The platform certainly isn’t Alex Song, who didn’t look like he belonged on the pitch.

3. My one obligatory whine about the ref: it was amusing to hear Martin Tyler intone that Arsenal fans thought that Barca was getting all the calls as a replay was playing that showed Barca having a perfectly legitimate second goal ruled out for offside.

4. Victor Valdes, you’ve come so far and then you leave your near post like that?  If there is one piece of knowledge upon which you should be able to rely, it’s the knowledge that Robin van Persie will shoot at every possible opportunity. 

5. The 2-1 result makes for an interesting second leg.  Barca have progressed with road draws in five Champions League knock-out ties under Guardiola and they were knocked out after a 3-1 loss at Inter last year.  Now, we have a middle ground.  I’d make Barca the favorite because every single home result they have had under Guardiola in Champions League knock-out ties would be sufficient to allow them to progress.  Also, it’s unlikely that Messi will finish as poorly as he did tonight (although the rest of his game was outstanding).  That said, at 0-1 and even 1-1, the tie was pretty much over.  At 2-1 Arsenal, Barca’s chances aren’t much above 50%.  The big question is whether Arsenal’s backline can handle the pressure that they’ll see for 90 minutes.  What worked for Inter last year was a great center back pairing and terrific defensive midfielders in front of them.  Arsenal doesn’t have that personnel, so they have to be thinking about 2-2 instead of 0-0.

Our Lady of the Lake and her Big, Angry Men

Stories about Notre Dame’s imminent return to glory under a new regime seem like Police Academy sequels, each new one more preposterous than the last.  Rather than dismissing the latest batch, Stewart Mandel argues that New and Improved Notre Dame, Brian Kelly Edition is not Mission to Moscow ridiculous, but rather that we have a legitkmate reason to believe that this time, it's not a joke.  Mandel’s argument is that Brian Kelly’s first recruiting class is especially heavy on defensive line talent, unlike the classes of Charlie Weis. 

Mandel is correct, although he overstates the case a little.  It’s true that Kelly landed Notre Dame’s first five-star defensive linemen since the Bob Davie years.  However, it’s not as if Weis didn’t pull in any talent at the position.  Of the 37 (!) ESPN 150 players that Weis recruited in four full classes, five were defensive linemen.  (For some reason, Notre Dame’s recruiting classes are not available on Rivals right now.)  If you assume a three-man front as the base defense, then Weis brought in blue chip defensive linemen in a proportion consistent with the number of defensive linemen in a starting lineup.  His downfall was on the defensive side of the ball, but it wasn’t a failure of recruiting.

Speaking of the three man front, I’m interested to see how it plays out on the college level.  Bobby Diaco runs a 3-4 defense, which traditionally sees the outside linebackers making the plays and the defensive ends occupying blockers.  At 225 pounds, Ishaq Williams seems destined four outside linebacker.  With weights in the 250s, Aaron Lynch and Stephon Tuitt could also be outside linebackers or they could bulk up into 3-4 ends.  They are already at the weight at which Justin Houston tore up the SEC this fall.  If they put on 25 pounds, where will they be on the field?  The Irish’s use of Lynch and Tuitt presents an interesting issue because college teams that run a 3-4 are coming into a recruiting advantage.  Three of the four teams in the NFL final four run 3-4 schemes.  The defense is getting very popular in the NFL, as smart 3-4 coaches have the upper hand right now with their ability to confuse quarterbacks and offensive lines.  Georgia’s switch to the 3-4 is likely to pay recruiting dividends because of what recruits are seeing on TV in January.  The same is true for Notre Dame.  The question is whether the best recruits pulled in by Georgia, Notre Dame, and other 3-4 schools are going to end up as defensive ends or outside linebackers. 

Mandel’s description of Brian Kelly’s recruiting success also raises two issues for Michigan fans, aside from the obvious “a team on the schedule is improving the talent on its roster.”  The first is that Brian Kelly is doing exactly what Rich Rodriguez should have done. Like Rodriguez, Kelly knows offense and is confident that his teams will be great on that side of the ball, regardless of the talent level. Kelly moved to ND to have access to better athletes on the defensive side so that his teams aren't lopsided. Rodriguez had to have thought the same thing when leaving his alma mater, where he had just gone 32-5, but for whatever reason, he was unable to take advantage of Michigan’s recruiting platform.  Kelly, on the other hand, is taking advantage of being at Notre Dame.

That said, the second issue is that Kelly's recruiting success is also an implicit repudiation of the story that the media in Michigan will tell about Rodriguez's failure in Ann Arbor. The local media will want to make Rodriguez's demise a repudiation of the Spread, but based on the quarterback that he recruited, Kelly seems to be moving towards a more run-based Spread as opposed to a passing spread (or at least a more balanced version). The local media are also on a kick about how Brady Hoke is going to recruit the Midwest heavily, but Kelly is getting players from the Deep South, which is exactly the right strategy for a school like ND or Michigan and it’s the same strategy that Rodriguez tried and failed to execute.  In short, the media in Michigan are in denial about the state’s current condition, so they responded vehemently to a coach who looked elsewhere for talent and they are excited by a coach who believes (or is at least mouthing the belief for public consumption) that a national contender can be created from recruiting the local high schools.

One final thought on Mandel’s piece.  I’ve had a good time ripping Mandel’s overreaction to Notre Dame’s recent struggles.  To his credit, in his most recent article, Mandel links to his own pieces that have been refuted by recent events.  With my new-found appreciation for Mandel using his brain when writing, I’m inclined to point out that one of the things that I like about him is his willingness to reference instances in which he has been wrong.  I like this trait in Mark Bradley, as well.  I’ll put up with a lot from a writer if he will acknowledge when he is wrong. 

We Have Now What we Have Always Needed, Real Partnership with the Government.

Deadspin is pretty much useless to me because it’s become the US Weekly of sports blogs, but I remain a fan of its slogan: “without access, favor, or discretion.” That saying is the “all the news that’s fit to print” of the blogosphere. Think about the slogan when you read two pieces: Peter King’s hagiography of Roger Goodell ($) and S.M. Oliva’s dissection of the NFL as an embodiment of crony capitalism at the Mises Economics Blog. (HT to Chris Brown for the latter link. And yes, I get the point that I’m left-of-center and quoting the von Mises Institute.)

I finally got around to reading the King piece this weekend and found myself wondering whether it would be any different if it were written by the NFL’s PR department itself. (The irony here is that Goodell got his start as a PR guy for Ken O’Brien when the Jets took O’Brien as one of the least heralded members of the famed 1983 quarterback class.) In Cliff Notes style, here’s what you can learn from King’s eight-page piece:

1. Goodell successfully handled a racially-loaded incident in a bar in college.

2. Goodell sent a security detail to Tank Johnson’s house instead of Johnson buying a gun.

3. The NFL is very popular, but the labor dispute will be complicated.

4. Goodell’s childhood was marked by protecting his siblings, realizing that he would have to outwork everyone else, and following his Dad’s political career, which ended with a principled stand against the Vietnam War. We end up with this rancid comparison:

Goodell lost the 1970 Senate election, receiving just 24% of the vote in a three-party race. "But what did he retain?" Roger says. "His principles. His integrity. His character. It had a big effect on all of us."

On the future NFL commissioner, especially. "Roger has so much of his father in him," Tagliabue says. "He listens to all sides and has the courage of his convictions. I used to see it a lot when he was dealing with state legislators and governors. He understood the pressure elected officials were under."

Yes, Peter, we all see the similarity between Charles Goodell taking a stand against Vietnam that provoked a backlash from his own party and Roger Goodell convincing politicians to fork over large chunks of the public treasury to enhance the bottom lines of the NFL and its wealthy owners. Real conviction on both sides.

5. Goodell took care of his mother when she had terminal cancer.

6. Goodell convinced Jerry Rice not to go to the USFL, returned pro football to Cleveland, and was correct to side with Jerry Jones on the potential of local sponsorship deals.

7. Goodell is a man of the people who talks to his ordinary customers.

8. Mike Vick wants to make Goodell proud after lying to him about his involvement in dog-fighting. (Seriously, this story about Goodell’s steely glare to Vick is ludicrous. Was Vick really going to admit to a serious federal offense and thus make the Commissioner of the NFL a material witness? Goodell’s question to Vick was a classic sideline reporter question with only one potential answer, but Greg Aiello King retells it with vim so fans can feel good that the NFL commissioner takes a hard line on scofflaws with cornrows.)

9. Goodell will bend on the NFL’s position that the season should be extended to 18 games – an unprincipled, meritless position in light of the emphasis on head injuries and thus, an obvious negotiating ploy - but he is a stalwart negotiator who will win in the end.

The inclusion of the 18-game schedule issue is the only nugget in a long cover story that could possibly be construed as negative for Goodell and King promptly defuses it by saying that Goodell and the owners will back off that demand. Hell, even the cover – a ground level shot looking up at Goodell, surveying all he has conquered as the serious man of industry – comes right out of your average political campaign. Sports Illustrated is the major national media entity that should be able to display critical thinking when it covers the labor dispute because ESPN and the other networks are beholden to the league as a result of their broadcast deals. Instead, SI devoted major space to allow the NFL to fire an early salvo in a PR war. (In SI’s defense, they did a very good job covering head injuries in a lengthy cover feature this season, so it’s not as if they have nothing to contribute.) King’s piece reeks of a writer who wants to maintain a good relationship with the entity that he covers. The desire for access pollutes the final product.

In contrast, the Oliva piece is a great takedown of the NFL and Goodell. In the same way that lots of voters are against “big government” while ignoring the fact that they are beneficiaries in a host of ways (their position isn’t “I don’t like spending;” it’s “I don’t like spending on other people”), lots of otherwise conservative people love a sport that makes a mockery of the free market. Inept owners like the Fords in Detroit and the Browns in Cincinnati continue to rake in profits from unassailable positions because the NFL protects bad management. (I would pay through the nose to see a meeting of NFL owners in which a promotion/relegation system is discussed.) These owners benefit from the heavy public subsidies that every franchise receives in one form or another. Oliva then lights into Goodell as being emblematic of the league’s authoritarian bent:

There is, in fact, a strong “intellectual property” mentality throughout the NFL. Literally this is reflected in the league’s fanatical prosecution of its trademarks and copyrights. But on another level, there’s a belief in “The Shield,” the image of a league that must be protected at all costs from any hint of negative press.

When Roger Goodell became commissioner, he took this idea to laughable excess. No longer content to enforce the league’s on-field rules, Goodell anointed himself a crusader against all perceived wrongs. He routinely suspends players for off-field incidents – even mere allegations — that have nothing to do with the actual game of professional football. His rationale is that any action by an NFL player that may reflect poorly on him also hurts the league somehow. (Of course, that doesn’t apply to Goodell’s employers, the franchise operators, who are free to be sleazy, racist, and dishonest businessmen, e.g. Daniel Snyder).

Then again, as a lifelong NFL bureaucrat, Goodell is simply extending the league’s on-field thinking to off-field situations. The NFL product is increasingly bureaucratic and not very “consumer friendly.” The league obsesses over trivial matters — fining players $5,000 for wearing the wrong socks, banning all truthful criticism of officiating mistakes, changing rules on the fly in the middle of the season — to the point where we’re no longer talking about private businessmen but quasi-governmental officials. Indeed, what private business outside of professional sports has a “Commissioner”?

Not that any of this is surprising. When the majority of league stadiums are government finances, that mentality seeps into the league’s operations. When you attempt to circumvent the laws of economics by continually subsidizing poor management, what you’re left with is a even poorer management.

The one problem with Oliva’s critique is that Goodell’s crackdown on players who are not charged with crimes (Ben Roethlisberger) or, in one case, are alleged to have committed a tawdry offense that isn’t even illegal (Brett Favre) is actually a free market response. The NFL has to be careful with resentment on the part of its fans towards its players. That resentment has elements of race and class (a combination of conservative and liberal themes!) and is stoked by the sports media, which often have little food on their table, but have a lot of forks and knives and have to cut something. (See the comment in King’s piece by a tailgater in Cincinnati.) By becoming the avenging angel for fans, Goodell is responding to taste of the market. Not all bad qualities of the NFL are the result of its suckling at the government teat. Then again, if the point is that the NFL is an emblem of authoritarian, state-aided capitalism, then Sheriff Goodell fits right in.

Rebranding in the NHL

I recommend the article in Tuesday's New York Times about the efforts of the Tampa Lightning to rebrand their product by simplifying the uniforms:

Redesigning the Lightning’s uniforms took six painstaking months.

“This is a big, long process involving researchers and writers and designers and strategists,” said Ed O’Hara, the chief creative officer of SME Branding, the New York firm hired to make the Lightning crest and uniforms evocative of hockey’s roots.

The path to rebranding the Lightning was littered with discarded sketches for jersey and crest designs, cashiered concepts for remaking the team’s image and weekly speakerphone conferences between New York and Florida to hash it all out.

It ultimately led to a simple blue-and-white uniform: a clean design redolent of the N.H.L.’s Original Six. Tampa Bay’s uniform is only the third in the league to use just two colors, after the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Detroit Red Wings.

Lord, please let this be a trend. With football uniforms headed towards the garish end of the continuum, it's refreshing to see a pro sports franchise realize that branding itself in a more traditional way makes sense. The fact that Tampa is in a non-traditional market makes the rebranding even more important. They've clearly come to the realization that they need to downplay the fact that they aren't one of the Original Six and the way to do that is to play in duds that look like they could have come from the 1930s. Of course, they have also been able to rebrand in the one way that would save hockey in Atlanta: new ownership.

Speaking of which, Tim Vickery made a great point on the World Football Phone-in a few weeks ago regarding coverage of futbol in Brazil and the point applies to the NHL. He was talking about the discussions in England regarding whether the new tenant of the London Olympic Stadium, either Spurs or West Ham, will tear out the track when one of the clubs moves in after the Olympics. In the process of making the point that having a running track kills the atmosphere for a match, he said that Brazilian TV companies can't get enough of the English Premier League in large part because the atmosphere is so good. The fans are screaming and singing the whole time and significantly, they are close to the action, so the cameras can pick up the facial reactions of the fans when goals go in.

Vickery's point has applicability to the NHL, specifically as an illustration of yet another way in which Gary Bettman has got things all wrong. He expanded hockey throughout the Sunbelt because of the size of the markets here. In the process of doing so, he reduced the value of the NHL as a TV property. Hockey already struggles on TV because it's hard to follow the puck. The sport needs to make up for this shortcoming in other ways. One such way is passion from the fans. Hockey fans tend to be screamers, especially in places where the game has deep roots. Leaving aside the fact that I live in Atlanta and want our city to have an NHL team, what is going to be more appealing to an average viewer: a playoff game in a beautiful, but somewhat sterile arena in Atlanta or Nashville or the same game played in front of crazy fans who live and breathe the game in Quebec City or Winnipeg? The NHL already has something of a spectacle problem by virtue of iconic franchises leaving their great old arenas for new, less interesting venues. (Chicago, Montreal, Toronto, and Boston all come to mind; Hockey Night in Canada just isn't the same without Maple Leaf Gardens. Now, if you'll excuse me, there are some kids on my lawn who require shooing.) The league adds to the problem by moving its product outside of its sweet spot.

Our Lady of the Lake and her Big, Angry Men

Stories about Notre Dame’s imminent return to glory under a new regime seem like Police Academy sequels, each new one more preposterous than the last. Rather than dismissing the latest batch, Stewart Mandel argues that New and Improved Notre Dame, Brian Kelly Edition is not Mission to Moscow ridiculous, but rather that we have a legitimate reason to believe that this time, it's not a joke. Mandel’s argument is that Brian Kelly’s first recruiting class is especially heavy on defensive line talent, unlike the classes of Charlie Weis.

Mandel is correct, although he overstates the case a little. It’s true that Kelly landed Notre Dame’s first five-star defensive linemen since the Bob Davie years. However, it’s not as if Weis didn’t pull in any talent at the position. Of the 37 (!) ESPN 150 players that Weis recruited in four full classes, five were defensive linemen. (For some reason, Notre Dame’s recruiting classes are not available on Rivals right now.) If you assume a three-man front as the base defense, then Weis brought in blue chip defensive linemen in a proportion consistent with the number of defensive linemen in a starting lineup. His downfall was on the defensive side of the ball, but it wasn’t a failure of recruiting.

Speaking of the three man front, I’m interested to see how it plays out on the college level. Bobby Diaco runs a 3-4 defense, which traditionally sees the outside linebackers making the plays and the defensive ends occupying blockers. At 225 pounds, Ishaq Williams seems destined four outside linebacker. With weights in the 250s, Aaron Lynch and Stephon Tuitt could also be outside linebackers or they could bulk up into 3-4 ends. They are already at the weight at which Justin Houston tore up the SEC this fall. If they put on 25 pounds, where will they be on the field? The Irish’s use of Lynch and Tuitt presents an interesting issue because college teams that run a 3-4 are coming into a recruiting advantage. Three of the four teams in the NFL final four run 3-4 schemes. The defense is getting very popular in the NFL, as smart 3-4 coaches have the upper hand right now with their ability to confuse quarterbacks and offensive lines. Georgia’s switch to the 3-4 is likely to pay recruiting dividends because of what recruits are seeing on TV in January. The same is true for Notre Dame. The question is whether the best recruits pulled in by Georgia, Notre Dame, and other 3-4 schools are going to end up as defensive ends or outside linebackers.

Mandel’s description of Brian Kelly’s recruiting success also raises two issues for Michigan fans, aside from the obvious “a team on the schedule is improving the talent on its roster.” The first is that Brian Kelly is doing exactly what Rich Rodriguez should have done. Like Rodriguez, Kelly knows offense and is confident that his teams will be great on that side of the ball, regardless of the talent level. Kelly moved to ND to have access to better athletes on the defensive side so that his teams aren't lopsided. Rodriguez had to have thought the same thing when leaving his alma mater, where he had just gone 32-5, but for whatever reason, he was unable to take advantage of Michigan’s recruiting platform. Kelly, on the other hand, is taking advantage of being at Notre Dame.

That said, the second issue is that Kelly's recruiting success is also an implicit repudiation of the story that the media in Michigan will tell about Rodriguez's failure in Ann Arbor. The local media will want to make Rodriguez's demise a repudiation of the Spread, but based on the quarterback that he recruited, Kelly seems to be moving towards a more run-based Spread as opposed to a passing spread (or at least a more balanced version). The local media are also on a kick about how Brady Hoke is going to recruit the Midwest heavily, but Kelly is getting players from the Deep South, which is exactly the right strategy for a school like ND or Michigan and it’s the same strategy that Rodriguez tried and failed to execute. In short, the media in Michigan are in denial about the state’s current condition, so they responded vehemently to a coach who looked elsewhere for talent and they are excited by a coach who believes (or is at least mouthing the belief for public consumption) that a national contender can be created from recruiting the local high schools.

One final thought on Mandel’s piece. I’ve had a good time ripping Mandel’s overreaction to Notre Dame’s recent struggles. To his credit, in his most recent article, Mandel links to his own pieces that have been refuted by recent events. With my new-found appreciation for Mandel using his brain when writing, I’m inclined to point out that one of the things that I like about him is his willingness to reference instances in which he has been wrong. I like this trait in Mark Bradley, as well. I’ll put up with a lot from a writer if he will acknowledge when he is wrong.

Used to Work on Mr. Wren’s farm

With the obligatory cautionary references to Brad Komminsk, Bruce Chen, and Jose Capellan, there is near-universal consensus that the Braves' farm system is loaded, especially with pitching talent. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus gives five-star status (nice to see the infiltration of college football recruiting terminology here) to three prospects: Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, and Mike Minor. Three more prospects - Arodys Vizcaino, Craig Kimbrel, and Randall Delgado - get four stars.

Goldstein's bullish thoughts on the farm system are by no means unusual. ESPN's Keith Law rates Freeman as the top impact prospect in baseball and ranks the Braves' system as third overall. Law puts five Braves in his top 100: Teheran (6), Freeman (43), Vizcaino (47), Delgado (50), and Minor (61). Baseball America takes a similar view of the top prospects in the system, although its organization rankings are not yet out.

This seems like as good a time as any to make the point that Liberty Media has not been a disaster for the Braves. The common criticism in this town is that Liberty Media doesn't care whether the team wins or loses because the Braves are only one of a number of faceless assets to them. That's true as far as it goes, but one of the advantages of being run by a distant, dispassionate entity is that there is no interference with the people who actually know the industry. Thus, the professionals who draft and sign young talent are able to maintain a farm system that consistently produces quality players. We all get frustrated when Liberty Media doesn't spend that little extra sum to fill in an obvious hole, but the team is only in a position where a free agent leftfielder could make a difference because of the farm system.

Yes, Phil, it's Rude to Acknowledge Reality

If this account of the now-famous Phil Simms/Desmond Howard tete-a-tete is correct, then we have a perfect encapsulation of one of the problems with modern commentary. Simms allegedly told Howard that Howard's criticism of Matt Simms as one of the three worst quarterbacks in the SEC (a criticism that was not far off and possibly shared by Derek Dooley, who replaced Simms with Tyler Bray by the end of the season) was out of bounds because "you don’t say that about anyone else." In other words, if a player is not performing well, it's rude to point this fact out. And this, in a nutshell, is why sentient people would rather hear Cris Collinsworth call a game as opposed to listening to Phil Simms follow the custom of telling us that everyone is wonderful.

Signing Day Thoughts

To live outside the law, you must be honest

Of Rivals’ top 15 classes, #4 USC is on probation (pending appeal), #7 Auburn spent the month of November under a cloud because of a wealth of circumstantial evidence that they bought Cam Newton, and #16 North Carolina spent the month of September under a cloud because their defensive line coach was essentially a runner for a agent.  In the end, 18-year olds don’t seem to worry about the prospect of playing for a team on probation.  Maybe the lesson is that it’s worth the risk to cheat?  I’m not even sure why I ended the last sentence with a question mark. 

This is teh awesome

College football is valuable to the NFL because its popularity means that players come to the NFL with reputations.  We’re interested in Vince Young and Reggie Bush because they come to the League with a backstory.  College basketball is valuable to the NBA for the same reason.  MLB suffers in comparison because it has to start from scratch in terms of creating personalities.  With more and more attention paid to recruiting, college football now has a similar bounce to the NFL and NBA (although not as high) because fans know some of their players before they ever put on the uniform.  In fact, the bounce is a little stronger in two senses.  First, we follow the recruitment of our players and our initial feeling about them is affection because they picked us over a rival.  Second, we follow the big ones who got away, which means that we have some interest in other teams.  I’m still waiting to watch Demar Dorsey play for … someone.  

Fighting over the scraps

Recruiting in the state of Michigan should be interesting next year.  The in-state class is supposed to be fairly good, which I guess means that the state will push past South Carolina and be a bit more like Alabama in terms of the number of top-tier prospects.  On the one hand, Michigan has a new coach who is trying to improve relations with the high school coaches of the state.  Michigan fans are expecting the normal first-year recruiting bounce, especially with the Luddite local media now behind the coach because he’s a “Michigan Man” by virtue of having been a defensive line coach under Lloyd Carr for a few years.  On the other hand, Michigan State fans will be expecting a recruiting bounce from their once-a-decade very good season.  It would be nice for the Big Ten if one of its programs other than top dog Ohio State and newcomer Nebraska could put together a top 20 recruiting class, something the other ten teams in the league collectively failed to do in this recruiting class.  One wonders if the top brass in the Big Ten are noticing that their collection of underwhelming coaching staffs aren’t exactly doing much to convince players outside of the region to come play in their full stadia.

Stingless

This recruiting cycle came on the heels of Georgia Tech winning the ACC for the first time in almost two decades.  The crop of in-state players was especially good, as there were 22 four- or five-star players in the Peach State.  In the end, Paul Johnson signed one of the 22.  In response to the inevitable counter by Tech fans that recruiting rankings don’t matter, think about the players who led the Jackets to that ACC title.  Derrick Morgan, Morgan Burnett, Jonathan Dwyer, and Josh Nesbitt, all four-star recruits from Chan Gailey’s excellent 2007 class.  Right now, I’m thinking of Paul Johnson as being another version of Ralph Friedgen: a very smart offensive coach who was able to win with his predecessor’s players, but will struggle to do so with his own guys.  The one potential saving grace: Tech has very specific needs for its option offense and 3-4 defense, so if they found good players to fill those needs, then that might allow them to compensate when they play opponents with great players.

So who is Christian Laettner in this class?

I hate the Dream Team nickname because of overuse, but full marks to Mark Richt for pulling in a classic Georgia class, headlined by a bevy of excellent in-state players and augmented by the occasional blue chip from elsewhere in the Southeast.  Richt has been on the hot seat since the Dawgs started 1-4 on the heels of a disappointing 2009, but he circled the wagons beautifully.  If nothing else, Richt’s replacement will be in a great position.  In an ideal world, the Dawgs’ new 3-4 will get traction and Richt will have a second wind, a la Vince Dooley after two weak season out of three in the late 70s.  As one of Rich Rodriguez’s excuse-makers, I tried to rationalize Michigan’s weak classes over the last two years as a result of all of the negativity around the program from the various factions fighting with one another, but after seeing Richt put together a great class despite questions about his job security, maybe the conclusion is simply that Rodriguez wasn’t a very good recruiter (or at least wasn’t good at selling Michigan’s strengths).

More than a Game, Cairo Edition

As a history nerd, one of the factors that has drawn me into following world football is that it's a great way to learn about historical context. For instance, reading about how the modern game started in England requires one to understand the effects of the industrial revolution, as well as the role played by English schools in training their elite. Reading about how the modern game spread throughout the world requires one to understand how international trade took off in the late 19th and early 20th century. When I was picking a club to support, I was drawn to Barca, at least in part, by the founding myth (and I use the term myth in the Jospeh Campbell sense, not the "totally fictional story" sense) that the club was an outlet for opposition to Franco, with the murder of Josep Sunyol a central part of the story.

Not surprisingly, soccer is weaved into the current events taking place in Egypt:

Last Thursday, the Egyptian Soccer Federation announced that they would be suspending all league games throughout the country in an effort to keep the soccer clubs from congregating. Clearly this was a case of too little, too late. Even without games, the football fan associations have been front and center organizing everything from the neighborhood committees that have been providing security for residents, to direct confrontation with the state police. In an interview with Al-Jazeera, Alaa Abd El Fattah, a prominent Egyptian blogger said, "The ultras -- have played a more significant role than any political group on the ground at this moment." Alaa then joked, "Maybe we should get the ultras to rule the country."

The involvement of the clubs has signaled more than just the intervention of sports fans. The soccer clubs' entry into the political struggle also means the entry of the poor, the disenfranchised, and the mass of young people in Egypt for whom soccer was their only outlet.

As soccer writer James Dorsey wrote this week, "The involvement of organized soccer fans in Egypt's anti-government protests constitutes every Arab government's worst nightmare. Soccer, alongside Islam, offers a rare platform in the Middle East, a region populated by authoritarian regimes that control all public spaces, for the venting of pent-up anger and frustration."

Soccer certainly isn't the only prism through which one can view the world, but it is one of the best.

Sir Alex in an Alley in London with Posterboards

Kudos to Nate for altering me to this.