The upshot of this methodology in the SEC is that FO is high on Auburn and down on Ole Miss($). This stat is scary for Ole Miss:
Since 2003, seventeen teams have registered a one-year improvement of at least six wins. Only three improved again the following season. Of the five BCS-conference teams to do the deed, all regressed by at least two wins the next year. The two most recent examples -- Illinois and Kansas in 2007 -- both regressed by four wins in 2008.
The caveat attached to it is reassuring:
Lucky for the Rebels, there are no clauses in the FO projections for "a potential Heisman darkhorse (Snead) transfers in to play quarterback" or "former head coach Ed Orgeron may have been historically bad at his job." Because of that alone, they may have a better chance than most at bucking what is a pretty solid statistical trend.
But screw their caveat; I'm still higher on Arkansas this year.