Wednesday, November 04, 2009

I Hate Iowa

Not as a state, a school, or a program. I just hate this Iowa team.

RankTeamDelta
1 Texas
2 Florida 1
3 Alabama 1
4 Cincinnati 2
5 TCU 1
6 Oregon 2
7 LSU 5
8 Boise State 3
9 Iowa 4
10 Penn State 3
11 Southern Cal 4
12 Georgia Tech 3
13 Ohio State 4
14 Pittsburgh 1
15 Oklahoma 4
16 Arizona 6
17 Houston 3
18 Miami (Florida)
19 Tennessee
20 Oklahoma State 10
21 Utah 1
22 Notre Dame
23 Clemson
24 California
25 Virginia Tech 9
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#21), South Carolina (#23), Mississippi (#24), Navy (#25).

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

can you explain why you have USCw and Penn St ahead of Tech? USC has TWO losses, including one to a dinky Washington team and Penn St plays in the not-so-big 10

Michael said...

Because Tech's defense is terrible.

Jesse said...

While I don't agree with Tech being dropped three spots or being placed behind a two loss USC, the defense as a whole is not that great, with the pass defense being specifically bad (7.8 ypp). The only thing saving Tech is that we have a decent scoring defense and a top 20 offense in scoring, ypg, and ypp. Tech should be able to outscore everyone left on the schedule to win out.

I still think we are a top ten team regardless of the defensive deficientcies because the offense is so good. It doesn't matter though because even if Tech wins out we aren't playing into the top two spots without a large amount of failure from the undefeateds. And by large amount, I mean those teams need to lose more than once.

Michael said...

Tech is 102nd in yards per play allowed. The only reason why they look good in the stats that you cite is because the defense is on the field for fewer plays because the offense keeps the ball so well.

Statistically, your defense is marginally better than FSU's. The differences between Tech and FSU are that Tech has won every close game in which it has played and that Tech is outstanding on offense, whereas FSU is merely good.

Anonymous said...

All of those teams ahead of Tech would beat Tech like a drum. I'd love to see what TCU would do to them with that defense shutting down the option then the offense rolling over that inept D. Tech's big win this year is against a mediocre Va.Tech team.

Jesse said...

Michael, who is your latest comment directed at because I don't understand what you are trying to say. In my comment I am completely agreeing with you that Tech's defense is not good. I'll wait for clarification so as to not assume something that may not be implied.

Anon, I agree that Tech's D probably could not stop a few of the teams that are currently ahead of us in the polls, but I highly doubt that they all would beat Tech like a drum or that they all would shut down Tech's offense. Currently there are three teams that we have already beaten listed in the top 25 defenses based on ypp, UNC @ 7th & 4.1ypp, Clemson @ 10th & 4.23ypp, and VT @ 20th & 4.75ypp. Take out the GT game and you get Clemson with 3.91ypp, UNC with 3.92ypp, and VT with 4.69ypp. Currently that would make them 3rd, 4th, and 19th respectively. Against GT, UNC gave up 5.1ypp, Clemson gave up 6.5ypp, and VT gave up 5.1 ypp, all of which happen to close to the worst allowed by each defense. Based on this, there has been no evidence of any solid defense being able to "shut down the option".

Before you go touting TCU like some all-pro team, keep in mind the teams they have played thus far. Only BYU is in the top 25 offensively and only Clemson and Air Force are in the top 25 defensively. The same with Boise St. and probably a few more of the teams above GT.

Like I said, my only opinion as far as the poll goes is that I don't think Tech should fall three spots for winning and be behind USC with them having two losses. I don't think they should move up outside of natural attrition and I don't think that it really matters at this point because GT still has to win two conference game to get to their championship game, win that to get to a BSC game, and that's it. I would love nothing more than for GT to win out and everyone in front of them lose two games so there could be the chance at a MNC shot, but it isn't going to happen. I think they are one of the better one loss teams, but not the best.

Jesse said...

Also, Michael, I know you put a lot of stock into MOV, but shouldn't good teams win all their close games? Should GT lose thier close games? I mean, you keep bringing it up like every game GT plays is a close game, when it's actually just three. Outside of those and the loss to Miami, GT's MOV is almost double (19.6) what it is currently (10.56).

Just wondering.

MikeO said...

You've got to put Boise in front of Oregon. They beat them head to head and haven't lost. I'm not saying they would win the rematch, but head-to-head should mean something.

Joe Friday said...

MikeO-

As a longtime reader (who enjoys this blog very much), I can tell you with 100% certainty, that the author values statistical measurements significantly higher than he does H2H results. Just read his Texas/Oklahoma posts last year.

chg said...

I'd take Tech over either of the Big Ten teams ahead of them. All three teams lack a true signature victory, but Tech's win over the Hokies is better than anything the other two have managed, and the Jackets have also more impressive in their wins.

I think all of them are 9-3 talent taking advantage of relatively weak competition, but GT has the best body of work and is also the one I would give the best shot against a top five opponent.

Anonymous said...

anon 1237...are you serious? you're probably still one of those ugay fans...err...people who thinks the CPJ triple option is "gimmicky" and/or "high schoolish"

and Michael, our D may be terrible, but at least we a) make stops when we have to and b) haven't given up 47 yet