Lose at Home to Vandy, Lose to Kentucky...Clobber Auburn at Jordan-Hare?

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Ohio State	--
2	Michigan	--
3	Southern Cal	4
4	Arkansas	4
5	Florida	1
6	Louisville	2
7	LSU	2
8	Notre Dame	3
9	Rutgers	9
10	Texas	7
11	California	6
12	Wake Forest	5
13	Oklahoma	1
14	West Virginia	1
15	Boston College	9
16	Wisconsin	3
17	Auburn	7
18	Georgia Tech	2
19	Nebraska	--
20	Tennessee	8
21	Maryland	1
22	Oregon	1
23	Boise State	7
24	Brigham Young	2
25	Texas A&M	2

Dropped Out: Virginia Tech (#25).

As per usual, my stream of consciousness follows:

1. For those of you inclined to question why Rutgers is still behind Louisville, there are two responses. First, Louisville lost by three points on the road, so at best, Rutgers established that they are roughly equivalent with Louisville. Second, the game struck me as a good team getting momentum on a better team and riding that momentum out of a half. On a neutral field with that sort of momentum swing far less likely, I think that Louisville would beat Rutgers by at least a touchdown. I'm willing to consider Rutgers for the national title game if they run the table, mainly because a road win over West Virginia would show me a lot, but right now, Rutgers is a team that muddled through a very easy schedule and then caught fire for a half against the first good team they played.

2. Everyone who was criticizing Phil Steele for picking Arkansas #13 might want to re-frame their criticism and attack him for having the Razorbacks too low. Arkansas looked like a complete team on Saturday night, although since I've already gone on record as saying that Tennessee was a good passing game and little else and the Vols were missing the triggerman for that passing game, I'm probably reading too much into the rout of Tennessee. The Arkansas-LSU game is going to be enormous. Arkansas is going to have a shot at Glendale on the line, while LSU is going to have a BCS bid looming as a possibility. LSU's run defense is going to be the best that Arkansas has seen all year, which will force the Hogs to show whether they've figured out that whole passing thing with Casey Dick under center. Conversely, LSU leads the SEC in yards per pass attempt by over a half a yard over second place Florida, but they'll be facing an Arkansas pass defense that is second in the conference in yards per pass attempt allowed (trailing only LSU, natch). And then add in the fact that the game is going to be at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, where Arkansas has a freaky ability at pulling games out. (Interesting note on that stadium: I wrote a column for PigskinPost.com four years ago criticizing CBS for not having a goal line angle on a critical "did he get in?" play in an Arkansas-LSU game that decided the SEC West. A few days later, I got an e-mail from someone on the production team for the game saying that such an angle was impossible at War Memorial because there is so little room between the stands and the field that they can't get a rolling camera in there. So take that for what it's worth. I digress.)

Michigan-Ohio State is going to take all the available oxygen this week, but the Thanksgiving weekend is going to feature two other rivalry games that will be as big as they've ever been: Arkansas-LSU and USC-Notre Dame (assuming that USC takes care of Cal this weekend). Hog fans are going to be rooting for the Irish in that one, because no matter how far Arkansas has come this season and no matter that they were starting their second-best tailback and third-best quarterback against the Trojans, there's no way around 50-14 in Fayetteville if Arkansas and USC are the two teams vying for the spot opposite the Michigan-Ohio State winner.

3. Phil Steele alert: Ohio State led Northwestern 33-10 at halftime last week, but the yardage in the game was almost even. The Bucks led by 23 because Northwestern had three fumbles and an interception. Ohio State is leading the nation in scoring defense, but they have given up yardage in chunks on occasion this year. If Phil the Lawgiver is right about yardage being a more reliable indicator of a team's merit than points and that turnovers are random...

4. Major kudos to the Georgia Sports Blog for throwing out the possibility of a return to 2001 one week before Mark Richt reached the same conclusion. Georgia ran the ball and then hit Auburn on play-action fly routes. Matt Stafford made the throws and the receivers held onto the ball, which was something new. The simplicity of the approach probably explains why Richt didn't like the gameplan on Friday night:

"I was as low as I have been," Richt said. "I looked at the game plan and
thought, 'This is the worst thing I have ever seen.'"

That's telling, isn't it? It reminds me of Hugh Freeze, the coach of Briarcrest Christian School in The Blind Side (an excellent book, by the way). Freeze was in love with the notion of out-thinking his opponents and had achieved considerable success as a high school coach by doing so, but confronted with a team that had Michael Oher at left tackle, he had to be browbeaten by his assistants into running a one-play offense that ultimately took Briarcrest to a state title. Similarly, Mark Richt wants to beat opponents with the fast-break offense he used at Florida State. He doesn't want to win games with a basic I-formation, run-run-throw deep offense, but that suits this offense best because it reduces the chances for Matt Stafford and the receivers to make mistakes and it simplifies matters for Mssr. Stafford. It also better utilizes Kregg Lumpkin, who is the best player on the offense.

Defensively, the Dawgs obliterated Auburn's offensive line and then picked on a series of wounded ducks from Brandon Cox. The game left me asking questions like "has Cox's arm always been this weak?" and "did Tuberville show highlights of the 2003 USC game to his offensive line before the game?" It's hard to say whether Auburn's offense is really that bad (I knew their passing game was suspect, but not "can't complete a forward pass to anyone not named Tra Battle" suspect) or if the Georgia defense suddenly played up to its potential. Anyway, the Auburn-Georgia series has been filled with suprising results, usually favoring the road team, so we shouldn't be totally shocked. Wait a second, this is a Georgia team that lost to Vandy and Kentucky; we should absolutely be shocked.

5. I dropped Virginia Tech out of the rankings in part because they were leading Kent State 6-0 at halftime, in part because I was impressed by BYU's resume (especially after Arizona has righted their ship), and in large part because I'm mad at this guy:



6. I don't know what to do with Texas A&M. They've lost three games, all at home in dramatic conclusions, but they also lack a good win and they have combined a cake out-of-conference schedule with a Big XII schedule that has them playing every quality opponent at home, at least until the season-ender against Texas.

7. Alabama: worst red zone team since...? Georgia '03 doesn't hold a candle to this year's Crimson Tide, who have moved the ball well against good opponents, but they can't score touchdowns to save their lives. On Saturday night, they gained 398 yards, which is more than any team has gained on LSU this year, but they ended up with only 14 points because they had an interception after driving to the LSU 25 and a missed field goal after driving to the LSU 23. (I know those aren't technically red zone trips.) Ultimately, as with the 2003 Georgia team, this needs to be put on the Tide's offensive line, which simply can't get enough of a push to run the ball effectively on a short field and they are unable to handle the increased pressure that opposing defenses throw at them when the defenders have their backs to the wall. Something tells me that the Alabama-Auburn game Saturday is not going to be a paean to the "blocking" part of General Neyland's maxim on blocking and tackling.

7a. How angry are Auburn and Alabama fans that their chief opponent for the title of "best college football rivalry" - Michigan/Ohio State - is going to be hyped beyond belief this week, while few outside of Alabama will pay much attention to the Tide and Tigers because they have combined for seven losses and this is one of the few seasons in which there are no implications for the SEC title. OK, that last sentence was a bit of an overstatement as most Southern college football fans would care about Alabama-Auburn if both teams were winless, not to mention the "one for the thumb" and "Mike Shula: how thin is the ice?" dynamics that are in play this year.

If you couldn't tell...

I played around with the blog's format last night. Please let me know what you think? Too busy? Not enough Rick Mahler shots?

On that note, I was thinking of having a sidebar of nothing but Atlanta failures, some shots that would better represent this city from a sports perspective. (At least a pro sports perspective.) The pictures I would have used:

But then it occurred to me that my objective isn't to depress my readers every time they come to the blog. Still, if everything goes south for the Birds this winter, I may make a change solely out of spite.

4-1, Bitches!!!

In the words of Darth Vader, it is pointless to resist.

A few thoughts on the game:

1. I hate unmeasurable statements like "Joe Johnson is better because he got to play with LeBron, Wade, and Carmelo this summer on the Olympic team," but there might be some merit to it. Johnson was quite a player last year on a 26-win team, but this year? He's averaging 29-5-5 on the season. Rip on Billy Knight all you want for the Chris Paul pick (and I've certainly been part of that chorus), but he's only gone after one free agent hard with the Hawks' cap room and that guy turned out to be a terrific player.

2. And speaking of another alleged Billy Knight screw-up, I'm starting to think that Josh Childress is the second best player on the team. His stats are starting to flower and he does so much that doesn't show up in the box score, namely his defense and his smart movement without the ball. He doesn't take many shots to get his points and he's the perfect glue guy to go with Johnson, Josh Smith (who had a career high tonight with 29 points), and Marvin Williams (when he gets back).

3. Has Cedric Bozeman taken Royal Ivey's role? It sure looks like it? And can we say the same for Matt Freije taking Salim Stoudamire's role as the shooter off the bench (leaving aside the fact that they play different positions)?

An Article You'll Never Read about Ohio State's Secondary

Checkmate: Wolverines bond through chess


HT:
MGoBlog's AOL page

When imagining the Ohio State equivalent, I'm reminded of Christian Slater's line in
Heathers: "This is Ohio. If you don't have a brewski in your hand you might as well be wearing a dress." I need some help filling in the blank: "Buckeyes bond through _________" $500 handshakes from boosters? Choking Wisconsin quarterbacks? Leading the police on a high-speed chase with an assault rifle, a bottle of vodka, and a lint brush? Comparing 0.0 GPAs? Sharing notes from AIDS Awareness class?

At this stage, a Buckeye could easily drop in and suggest filling in the blank with "comparing multiple yellow pants pins representing numerous victories over Michigan," so I should be quiet now.

Incidentally, I shared the article with a Buckeye friend and when she came back with the obligatory "NERDS!!!" remark, I responded that I liked to think of Michigan's players as upholding the Greek/Jeffersonian ideal of balance between body and intellect...until the secondary lets Ginn or Gonzalez behind them, at which point I'll loudly proclaim that "we have a bunch of f***ing Steven Hawkings playing corner!!!"

Remember the '91 Braves?

OK, I know I'm getting carried away after four games, but just indulge me a little joy after the road win in Cleveland tonight. My one thought is that signing Speedy Claxton might have the ancillary benefit of making Tyronne Lue play better because he sees competition for his position. Lue has 16 assists and two turnovers so far this season. My biggest criticism has always been his inept defense, but with Josh Smith maturing as a weakside shot-blocker and Shelden Williams providing an upgrade in interior defense, maybe Lue's defense isn't such an issue anymore.

Could the Thrashers and Hawks both end the Philips Arena playoff drought in the same season? Perish the thought. (I've been meaning to get some thoughts on the Thrashers out and when things settle down a little, I'll do so.)

Grading the Falcons

The Falcons have reached the midway point in the season at 5-3, one game off the pace set by the division-leading...New Orleans Saints(?) and in position to at least return to the playoffs, if not do some damage once there. The first half of the season has been fairly bizarre, as the Falcons have shown themselves to be fairly inconsistent. On the one hand, they didn't allow a touchdown in the first two games, they dominated Carolina on the road in the opener, and they won a critical game in Cincinnati against a quality opponent. They also beat Pittsburgh in a must-win game for both teams. On the other hand, there's the small matter that they have been dominated in all three of their losses (save for the first half against the Giants) and losing to Detroit by 16 is awfully hard to justify.

Despite the constant focus on the mercurial Mike Vick, the main difficulty for the team is their crappy defense, or more specifically, their crappy pass defense. Since the first two games, the team has been regularly roasted by opposing quarterbacks. The team's two-game winning streak against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati that saved the season was the result of Vick playing two of the best games he's played since 2002, which compensated for a defense that cannot stop anyone. You like numbers? I do:

22nd in total defense
31st in pass defense
24th in yards per pass attempt
28th in first downs allowed
25th in third down percentage

The team is only 14th in points allowed, possibly as a result of the 16 turnovers they've forced (only three teams in the NFL have forced more), but if you buy the Phil Steele hypothesis that yardage and first downs are the true indicator of a team's merit and that turnovers are largely a matter of luck, then there is no reason to believe that the pass defense is going to be any better, at least as the lineup is present constituted. I add in that last clause because there are a couple changes on the horizon that could make the pass defense passable:

1. Bench Jason Webster - there is complete and unanimous agreement among the Falcons' fan base that Webster is terrible. Watching him this season has been like a throwback to the days when the Falcons lined Deion Sanders up on one side and the regrettable Charles Dimry on the other. (One of my Dad's pet routines is to tell stories about how bad Dimry was. It's only when he starts to lump Tom Glavine into that category that I step in. It still boggles my mind that someone who went to all those Braves games with me in the 80s and watched Len Barker and Rick Mahler attempt to pitch would be so critical of Glavines. I digress.) DeAngelo Hall isn't as good as he thinks he is - DeAngelo would need to be able to teleport into passing lanes two counties away for reality to coincide with his self-image - but he's a good corner. However, Hall's ability only serves to magnify how bad the corner is opposite him. Webster's struggles are a major, major indictment of Jim Mora. Webster wasn't merely some free agent that the team scouted on film or a college guy who was drafted because he was hot during the Senior Bowl. Nay, Webster played for Mora in San Francisco and with that base of knowledge, Mora still decided to bring him to Atlanta and start him. I try not to fall in love with the back-up when a starter is struggling, which is one of the ultimate reactionary sports fan cliches, but how much work does Jimmy Williams really need on technique before he sees the field? Put another way, how could he be any worse?

2. Buy John Abraham a new groin - Jet fans have to be laughing their tails off right now, as they were not upset to lose Abraham because they believed he was brittle and a liability against the run. The first part of the statement has turned out to be true and we have no idea on the second part because Abraham has barely played.


Heal, dammit!

It looks as if the Falcons traded a draft pick for a "proven veteran" and that veteran has turned out to be less than advertised. Maybe Arthur Blank's impatience for winning isn't such a good thing after all. (And if Don Banks' article from the Monday after the Steelers game is correct, then we have one more piece of evidence that the owner is too involved and is undercutting the authority of his head coach and GM. If Blank really did feel the need to step in to mediate between Ed Donatell and Greg Knapp without involving Rich McKay or Jim Mora, then that's not a good sign. Everyone still want him to own the Braves?) All that aside, if the team can stay in contention until Abraham gets back, he could make the pass defense significantly better.

Overall, the team has done little to disabuse me of my belief before the season that this is an average football team. They haven't beaten a team that currently has a winning record and they've outscored their opponents by a whopping three points while outgaining them by 15 yards per game. The run defense is a little better, but it looks like the front office overreacted to last year's run defense problems and now, the team has pass defense problems. The starting quarterback is alternatively excellent and poor, which grades out to average and the team didn't make Vick the highest-paid quarterback in the league to be average. (It must be said that the trend line for Vick is good, although he does need to work on his fumbles. Speaking of which, the team has lost only 3 of 13 fumbles, which is another indication that the Falcons were lucky in the first half.) Vick's receivers typically show signs of promise and then get a case of the dropsies. The line is fine at run blocking, but cannot pass protect. Average average average.

This would have been funnier at Georgia Tech

The Michigan Marching Band's salute to Star Trek, with Patrick Stewart conducting. On the one hand, it's cool that the Royal Shakespeare Company came to Ann Arbor. On the other hand, uh, a little nerdy for the send-off to Columbus, no? If you're headed to Gomorrah, you might need a more intimidating song at your back:



Is it me, or does that video demonstrate that is Columbus the biggest dump in the college football universe? There wasn't a single appealing location or groups of fans. And if the Columbus Chamber of Commerce had to choose between a Michigan fan getting attacked and rivers of urine cascading down a stairway, which would they choose?

HTs: Michigan Zone.

Smelling Bacon

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Ohio State	--
2	Michigan	--
3	Texas	1
4	Louisville	5
5	California	1
6	Florida	3
7	Southern Cal	1
8	Arkansas	3
9	LSU	3
10	Auburn	3
11	Notre Dame	3
12	Tennessee	7
13	Wisconsin	8
14	Oklahoma	1
15	West Virginia	5
16	Boise State	3
17	Wake Forest	6
18	Rutgers	1
19	Nebraska	7
20	Georgia Tech	5
21	Oregon	3
22	Maryland	4
23	Texas A&M	1
24	Boston College	11
25	Virginia Tech	1

Dropped Out: Clemson (#16), Washington State (#20), Penn State (#24).

For the second straight week, I wanted to drop Michigan and then Tennessee lost and Florida looked underwhelming against Vandy. Texas looked good, but they're one week removed from allowing 512 passing yards against Texas Tech and two weeks removed from being a late fumble away from losing to Nebraska. Cal looked pretty good, but I have a hard time taking a team seriously when they surrender 529 yards to UCLA. I thought about putting Louisville in the #2 spot, but I decided that I would be inconsistent in doing so, given my feelings that West Virginia was overrated. Plus, Louisville illustrates the proposition that a team probably should not be judged on its performances against minnows in the lead-up to the "GAME OF THE CENTURY!!!" So, Michigan remains at #2 behind an Ohio State team that looked mortal for the first time since Penn State traded punches with them for almost four quarters.

Random notes from the weekend:

1. As Arkansas was whipping up on South Carolina and looking very much like a team worthy of consideration for tops in the SEC, I started to criticize Kirk Herbstreit in my head for constantly leaving the Hogs off his list of top five one-loss teams. (The fact that I had Arkansas ranked outside of the top ten was lost on me at this point.) After all, the Hogs had, arguably, the most impressive win of any of the one-loss teams: the 17-point domination of Auburn on the road. Arkansas also had the most embarrassing loss, but they had the best excuse, as they played USC without their starting quarterback or tailback. Anyway, I decided in my head that Arkansas was being punished because they were not one of the anointed contenders before the season, just as players who aren't Heisman candidates before the year find it hard to force their way into the conversation. The moral of the story is that Herbstreit had the Hogs on his list at the end of the day and he was singing the praises of Darren McFadden, so credit to him for reacting to evidence.

1a. Speaking of McFadden, compare his stats to those of Steve Slaton, who was considered a top contender for the Heisman until his fumbles against Louisville:

Slaton - 169 carries for 1,215 yards and ten touchdowns

McFadden - 167 carries for 1,038 yards and ten touchdowns

McFadden was still recovering from his broken toe in the opener and has since put up 145 yards on Auburn's #41 run defense, 112 yards on Alabama's #31 run defense, and 219 yards on South Carolina's...OK, their #82 run defense. McFadden would be in the Heisman race if that race was at all fair to players who weren't candidates in the pre-season magazines. At a minimum, McFadden is on top of my list for conference MVP (along with Erik Ainge and Reggie Nelson) and I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do against Tennessee and LSU.

Incidentally, I'm keen on the McFadden/Slaton comparison because we had to decide in the off-season which of the two to franchise and we went with Slaton. I was very happy with that decision until it occurred to me this weekend that their stats are fairly similar, especially when considering that McFadden has a long receiving touchdown, as well as a passing touchdown.

1b. One other fantasy note: our team is in first place right now, but if you want an illustration of the randomness of it all, we wanted to take a Texas Tech receiver in the draft and, like most teams, had the Red Raider receivers ranked as follows:

Jarrett Hicks
Joel Filani
Robert Johnson

Hicks was taken before our pick, so we grabbed Filani. Here are the stats for the Red Raider receivers at present:

Hicks - 25 catches, 334 yards, two touchdonws
Filani - 70 catches, 980 yards, 12 touchdowns
Johnson - 65 catches, 559 yards, six touchdowns

As much as I'd like to tout my skill in jumping on Steve Slaton quickly last year or in identifying Adarius Bowman as a viable option before he mangled Kansas for 300 yards and four touchdowns, there's a major luck component to fantasy football.

2. Michigan's close call against Ball State is a good example of a game that has a very different value to a big fan paying close attention, as opposed to a casual fan, or even a big fan of another team. The average fan would see the score of the game, as well as the fact that Ball State had shots at the end zone to tie the game, and conclude that Michigan's performance was an epic feat of incompetence for the #2 team in the country. Upon a closer look, Michigan dominated the yardage totals, outgaining Ball State by 180 yards, and the turnovers were even. The yardage disparity was far greater when Michigan had its starters in, as the totals were something like 270-20 at halftime, or something like that. Michigan got up 31-12 and then allowed Ball State to complete two long touchdown passes on its back-up corners. The starting defense did allow the Cardinals to drive close to the tying score, which is worrying, but they held out on seven goal-to-go plays. Anyway, the point I'm trying to make isn't so much that Michigan's performance was better than it looked, but rather that a rational fan base will often have a better sense of its team's strengths and weaknesses. In the one direction, Michigan fans have a sense that the Ball State performance wasn't quite the warning sign that it appears to be. In the other direction, the rest of the Georgia blogosphere and I were the canaries in the mine, jumping off the Georgia bandwagon well before the rest of the country figured out that the Dawgs are not a good team.

3. Ralph Friedgen has always been one of my favorite coaches and I'm glad to see him reversing the conventional wisdom that he could only win with someone else's players. I also firmly staked out the ground that he was a better coach than Chuck Amato or Al Groh when Maryland, NC State, and Virginia looked ascendant in 2002 and I'm happy to have been right about something. Now, about that Georgia as pre-season #4 thing...

4. Speaking of tooting my own tooter, I remarked to Der Hausfrau at the start of the Penn State-Wisconsin game that "this game has 10-3 Wisconsin written all over it." damn you, Taylor Mehlhaff.

5. Today's debate topic: "Resolved that the Alabama fan base is the most dissatisfied in the Southeastern Conference." It seems to me that Georgia's fans are the only ones who could be more annoyed by developments this season. On the one hand, Georgia has two recent SEC titles, so their fans are probably willing to cut Mark Richt some slack. That said, the offensive tackle situation for the future has me concerned that this yearis not a one-year blip for Richt's Dawgs. (Is my memory fuzzy or were both Goff and Donnan's declines concurrent with an inability to recruit offensive linemen?) On the other hand, Bama fans are as rational as Hitler in the bunker, moving around imaginary divisions to halt the Red Army. They also just lost to the coach they passed on in favor of Mike Shula. If G-d has a sense of humor, he'll pit these teams against one another in Shreveport in the Totally Disgruntled Bowl. (Comcast, you know something about disgruntled consumers. You want to be the sponsor?) Oh, and need I point out that these are the two teams waiting at the end of Auburn's schedule that Tommy Tuberville pronounced to be too difficult for the '94 49ers, coming on the heels of that rigorous Tulane-Ole Miss-Arkansas State forced march?

6. I'll admit it: I got up and danced to LSU's fight song after they scored at the end of the Tennessee game. LSU deserved something good after their first eight games and I feel bad for them having to play the other four top teams in the conference on the road. I've also really grown to appreciate LSU's medley of songs played after touchdowns. Maybe I'm just a sucker for a good version of "Hold that Tiger." There's also something very rootable about Jamarcus Russell because he doesn't look like any other quarterback I've ever seen.

7. I would have liked to have ranked Oregon State, Virginia Tech, and BYU this week, but I couldn't find three teams to yank out of the rankings. Anyway, they're the wallflowers looking in on the top 25. That said, Virginia Tech didn't break 100 yards in either passing or rushing, so even though they might make me look good (I picked them to go 10-2 this year), no one should confuse them with, you know, a team that can put one foot in front of the other offensively.

8. Note this from the weekend: both Bob Stoops and Bill Bellichek went for fourth downs in their own territory in the second halves of big games this weekend. Both were second-guessed by analysts, who solely focused on what could go wrong if they did not get first downs. Both teams were successful on the gambles, this validating the fact that Stoops and Bellichek are better strategically than Bob Davie or John Madden. In Oklahoma's case, they faced 4th and inches from the 30 with a one-point lead and 90 seconds to go. (Incidentally, Davie had no idea that OU was short before the sticks confirmed that fact, even though they needed to get the nose of the ball to the 30 and they were clearly a few inches short. Notre Dame fans, you have a point.) Here's how I break out their odds:

90% chance of getting the yardage on the sneak.

80% odds of losing if they don't get the sneak.

40% odds of losing if they punt the ball, assuming that A&M would get it around their own 35 with the wind at their backs.

Thus, Stoops had an 8% chance of losing if he went for the sneak and a 40% chance of losing if he didn't. You can argue that my odds are off a little, but the overall point is that Davie (and Musberger and Herbstreit, to a lesser degree) solely focused on the downside of the strategy without recognizing the likelihood of getting six inches on fourth down, as well as the likelihood that A&M could drive for the winning FG in 90 seconds.

Signs You're Raising a Southerner

He asks to dress as Phil Fulmer for his first Halloween.

Surreal Life Mit Michael

Stream of Consciousness to follow...

It's 10:45 p.m. in Salt Lake City. I'm on a layover on my way back from Oakland after a week of depositions. I dominated a Cajun burrito at OAK (in support of LSU, whom I believe to be hours away from their first big win of the year) and then two beers before last call at Dick Clark's American Bandstand here in SLC. You can imagine the epic that is my breath right now. G-d help the person in 26B tonight. I spent the time at the bar Blackberrying my wife and figuring out what songs I would play if my I-Pod was plugged into the speakers at the bar. This is surely a comment on modern life, although I'm not coherent enough to describe it, other than the fact that we all stay in our own little cocoons, even in public, and that Radiohead has written some good songs that apply to the situation.

I don't sleep well on planes and I'm on Pacific time right now, so I'm going to be very tired tomorrow. This will test both my merits as a father of an infant and my commitment to college football. The Michigan game won't be on, which will help. How is it, by the way, that I paid $120 at the start of the year to get extra games on GamePlan and I pay $5 every month to Comcast for the "Deluxe" sports package, but I don't get ESPNU and therefore, I'm going to miss the Michigan game. In the words of Jonathan Pryce in Tomorrow Never Dies, what do I pay you people for?

Speaking of the Deluxe sports package, I haven't had a chance to comment on Barca's current swoon, which I got to see up close and personal on Gol TV against Real Madrid. The conventional explanation is that they miss Samuel Eto'o and that Eidur Gudjonsson is a poor replacement, especially since he isn't a true striker. There is some merit to this, as he missed a couple really good chances against Real. Another explanation is that Ronaldinho is also slumping, which also has merit as he sucked against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, as well as at the Bernabeu. The third explanation is that they miss Henk Ten Cate, Rijkaard's lieutenant and technical brain. For those of you who don't know much about soccer, imagine Pete Carroll without Norm Chow, George O'Leary without Ralph Friedgen, or the Rolling Stones without Mick Taylor. Related to this explanation is my personal favorite, which is based solely on the Real match: they lack a defensive bite in the midfield. Real poured forward in the game, not unlike Chelsea in the second leg in 2005 at Stamford Bridge, and this was because Rijkaard played a midfield without Motta or Edmilson. (He could also play Marquez in the holding role with Puyol and Thuram behind them as central defenders.) Barca cannot play without a defensive midfielder. Anyway, the home match against Werder Bremen has become must-win.

I took the deposition of a damages expert for the defense today in a commercial litigation and it made me think of all of the sloppy arguments that are made in sports arguments on causation. On the other hand, it made me think that we would never be able to attribute anything to anything if the world was ruled by defense economic experts because there's always another factor that allegedly isn't being controlled for.

I caught the second half of the Louisville-West Virginia game last night. It was nice to see the WVU defense that we all expected to finally rear its head. The Mountaineers are a team with a good offensive concept and the right personnel to run it, but they don't have the athletes to compete on a top level (insert standard explanation that Georgia had their heads in their cooloos [transliterating Tony Montana there] in the first quarter of the Sugar Bowl) and that shows up on the defensive end. Teams with inferior talent can hide that shortcoming by coming up with inventive schemes. There is little way to hide a lack of talent on defense. Louisville has more talent than West Virginia, for which they can thank...that Michigan State coach who was fired this week. WVU can remedy this shortcoming because they have a good potential recruiting base in Western Pennsylvania and their success of the past couple years ought to bring in some people who can tackle and cover. As for the Cards, they have pretty good athletes and a terrific quarterback and coach. For a brief moment, I was scaring myself about the prospect of a Michigan-Louisville game because Michigan's secondary isn't outstanding, but then I considered what little chance the 'Ville would have at blocking Woodley & co. The Louisville game also reminded me, by the way, that a team's offensive performances in the weeks leading up to a game of the year can be highly deceiving, so now I've swung back to the side of thinking that Michigan has a great chance at the Horseshoe.

I've done nothing more than read the recaps for the Hawks' first two games this season, but the first game sounded extremely depressing. Shelden Williams did absolutely nothing, Speedy Claxton didn't have an assist, and the team looked on paper to be worse than they were last year. Tonight, they beat the Knicks, which doesn't exactly prove a lot, but it sounds like they won by running. Adding Williams to Pachulia ought to improve the team's defensive rebounding and they finally have a point guard who can lead the break. In other words, for one night, based solely on a game recap that I read on my Blackberry, I am holding out hope that Billy Knight has added the components that will allow the team to harness its athleticism and that Shelden and Speedy will make the team's primary players better. If that happens and Josh Smith makes the leap this year, then 35 wins are a legitimate possibility.

I can't believe I haven't even had a chance to blog about Mike Vick's renaissance. Leaving aside the dumbest thing I heard this week - Sean Salisbury opining that Vick will someday throw for 4,000 yards and run for 1,000, as if it's possible to combine those two other than in an offense scoring 50 points per game - this is an excellent development. That said, the Falcons have so far lost two games decisively and won just about every close game they've played. There's a market correction on the way.

Time to board the plane.