Great post on schedule strength since 1993

This post is from my favorite Michigan board and, unfortunately, it omits Georgia, but it's pretty interesting for some of the major powers in college football:

"I looked at 14 Division 1-A programs using Sorenson's rating system and data base to compare them in terms of schedule strength and their relative success against Top 10, Top 25 and Top 50 teams for each season between 1993 (when Penn State joins the conference and the 85-scholarship limit is implemented) and 2004. I picked marquee named teams from the different BCS conferences and Notre Dame for the comparison. All these rankings include bowl games as well as the regular season.

Here's the won-loss rankings of these teams during the 1993-2004 time period from the highest to the lowest winning percentage:

1. Florida State (124-25-1)
2. Nebraska (124-28)
3. Tennessee (119-31)
4. Miami-FL (114-31)
5. Ohio State (116-33-1)
6. Florida (117-34-1)
7. Michigan (111-37)
8. Texas (108-39-2)
9. Oklahoma (100-47-1)
10. Southern Cal (98-48-2)
11. Penn State (96-49)
12t. Louisiana State (90-53-1)
12t. Notre Dame (90-53-1)
14. Alabama (82-65)

Sorenson gives each team a strength-of-schedule raking for each season. Here's the average SOS ranking for these teams over the 12-year period with the programs ranked highest to lowest:

1. Florida State - 13.3
2. Florida - 14.7
3t. Miami FL - 17.7
3t. Notre Dame - 17.7
5. Southern Cal - 18.4
6. Michigan - 21.5
7. Ohio State - 23.3
8. Alabama - 25.3
9. Tennessee - 25.7
10. Penn State - 27.8
11. Nebraska - 29.8
12. Louisiana State - 31.3
13. Oklahoma - 32.3
14. Texas - 41.2

Using Sorenson's power rankings, here's the number of Top 10 teams each program has faced during this period with the won-loss record:

1. Florida - 37 (14-22-1)
2. Tennessee - 29 (11-18)
3. Florida State - 28 (12-15-1)
4. Michigan - 26 (11-15)
5. Nebraska - 25 (12-13)
6. Louisiana State - 24 (6-18)
7t. Southern Cal - 23 (6-17)
7t. Oklahoma - 23 (8-15)
7t. Notre Dame - 23 (2-21)
10t. Texas - 22 (6-16)
10t. Ohio State - 22 (10-11-1)
12t. Alabama - 21 (1-20)
12t. Miami-FL - 21 (9-12)
14. Penn State - 17 (1-16)

Here's the listings for Top 25 teams that each school has played:

1. Florida - 68 (37-30-1)
2t. Ohio State - 60 (32-37-1)
2t. Florida State - 60 (39-20-1)
4. Michigan - 56 (31-25)
5t.Tennessee - 55 (29-25-1)
5t. Notre Dame - 55 (31-33-1)
7t. Alabama - 53 (17-35-1)
7t. Louisiana State - 53 (19-34)
9. Penn State - 52 (20-32)
10. Southern Cal - 49 (21-27-1)
11. Oklahoma - 48 (22-25-1)
12. Miami-FL - 47 (27-20)
13. Nebraska - 46 (26-20)
14. Texas - 45 (18-27)

Here's the listing of the Top 50 teams played by each program:

1. Southern Cal - 100 (57-41-2)
2. Florida State - 99 (74-24-1)
3. Florida - 97 (63-33-1)
4t. Michigan - 95 (61-34)
4t. Notre Dame - 95 (44-50-1)
6t. Tennessee - 91 (60-30-1)
6t. Alabama - 91 (39-51-1)
8. Ohio State - 90 (58-31-1)
9. Penn State - 87 (44-43)
10t. Oklahoma - 85 (46-38-1)
10t. Nebraska - 85 (59-26)
12. Miami-FL - 82 (54-28)
13. Louisiana State - 84 (37-47)
14. Texas - 80 (41-37-2)

There's been discussion on this board regarding Michigan's non-conference schedule, etc., but when you look at the numbers, UM does pretty well against a number of its contemporaries. Not quite at the level of a Florida or Florida State, but certainly in the upper third of the 14 teams that were researched."

My thoughts:

1. I always ripped on Florida State for joining the ACC and playing a sub-standard schedule, but these computer ratings clearly debunk that myth. Playing Florida, Miami, and a major bowl opponent every year did wonders for their strength of schedule and makes their streak of top four finishes even more impressive, especially since pollsters are not noted for taking strength of schedule into account.

1a. As I would have expected, Florida has played the most top ten and top 25 teams. There's no way to escape the fact that they have the toughest schedule set-up in the country, since they play Florida State, Tennessee, LSU, and Georgia every year. No one else plays a foursome of similar power. How dominant did Spurrier's teams have to be to play for the national title in consecutive years against that level of opposition? (I suppose that LSU and Georgia being down in 95-96 helped.)

2. On the other end, Texas has the weakest schedule by a significant margin and also has the worst record against top 25 and top 50 opponents. I was going to write a lot of that off as a function of playing in the Southwest Conference, but the Horns were in the Big XII for all but three of the years measures. I was also going to write their numbers against quality opponents off as a function of David McWilliams and John Mackovic, but Mack Brown has been the head man in Austin for seven of the 12 years covered in this study. Texas has two major rivals - Oklahoma and Texas A&M - and they haven't been up at the same time, so they've typically only played one top team a year. You combine that with a game against Baylor, 1-2 games against Missouri, Iowa State, or Kansas, and a typically weak non-conference schedule, and you have a recipe for an average schedule. Their weak numbers against top 25 teams ought to give us major pause before anointing them #2 in the country this year.

2a. Three of the bottom four teams in the strength of schedule rankings are Big XII teams. Toughest conference in the country, my ass.

3. Penn State's strength of schedule is lower than either Michigan or Ohio State's, which is probably a function of their weak non-conference schedule. Their 1-16 record against top ten teams is abysmal, topped only by Alabama's 1-20. I suppose that Notre Dame's 2-21 record is also in the same ballpark. Fans have been wondering over the past couple years what happened to these three major powers, probably not realizing that their decline has been a long-term phenomenon.

3a. And speaking of the Irish, these numbers debunk the notion that their schedule is tougher than anyone else's and is therefore the reason why they have struggled over the past decade. They are middle of the pack in terms of top ten and top 25 opponents. If Florida and Florida State can win against tough schedules, then why can't the Irish? Probably because they ran off their Bowden/Spurrier and replaced him with Bob Davie and Ty Willingham.