I've been nervous to say anything about the Braves for fear that whatever minimal karmic power this site has will cause the local baseball collective to end its surprising charge at the final wild card spot. So, how about a little pessimism? Tonight's pitching match-up is the least favorable match-up that the Braves have had or will have over the last two weeks of the season. Josh Johnson, the Marlins ace, goes up against Tim Hudson, who has been decent but not outstanding over the past several weeks. (How weird is it that the Braves have had outstanding starting pitching this year, but their two weakest starters are their two highest paid hurlers: Hudson and Derek Lowe. Speaking of Lowe, what is the justification for starting him over Kenshin Kawakami, given that Kawakami has been better over the course of the season and much better over the past two months? In Bobby's defense, starting Lowe over Jurrjens is more defensible than sending Greg Norton to the plate in the seventh inning of a 3-3 game with a runner on third and one out. And yes, I am criticizing our Hall of Fame manager whose team has won 15 of 17.) Tonight could be the end of the run.
If the Braves can win tonight, then they are going to be in great shape because they have a favorable pitching match-up in the final game against the Marlins (Javier Vasquez against Ricky Nolasco) followed by four games against the Nats, two of which will be pitched by the sterling Vasquez and Jurrjens.
The Dodgers could find themselves in an interesting position this weekend in that their success or failure against the Rockies will determine whether they face Colorado or Atlanta in the NLDS. Do they have a preference? The Dodgers are 12-3 against the Rockies this year and 3-4 against the Braves. [Edit: a commenter pointed out correctly that the Dodgers can't play the Rockies in the NLDS, as well as the fact that John Johnson and Nicky Nolasco don't pitch for the Marlins. They might have a slight preference in tanking the final series because it creates a reasonable chance that they would play a team that they have dominated in the NLCS. On the other hand, tanking would dump them into an NLDS with the Phils, who beat the Dodgers easily in last year's NLCS, or the Cardinals, who are a very threatening playoff opponent with Carpenter and Wainwright atop the rotation. Would they rather play one of those teams or a hot Braves team? I'm not sure. The only certainty is that I am an idiot.] There would also be a certain irony in the Dodgers playing such an important role as a spoiler, since the last time the Braves were in a down-to-the-last-weekend pennant race, it was with the Giants in 1993 and a Dodgers win on the final day of the season against the Giants gave the Braves the NL West after the Braves had swept the Rockies, one of the worst teams in the NL that year.
As of this morning, the Braves are 86-70 and have a run differential of +103. They need to go 4-2 the rest of the way to get to 90 wins. The last NL team to win 90+ games and miss the playoffs were the 2004 Giants. The last NL team to have a run differential of +100 or better and not make the playoffs were the 2004 Cubs. In other words, if the Braves finish hot and still miss the playoffs, they'll achieve something that hasn't been done in five years. So we have that going for us, which is nice.
9 comments:
not to be picky, but the next two nights we're facing Josh (not John) Johnson and Ricky (not Nicky) Nolasco
But you didn't catch the fact that the Dodgers can't play the Rockies in the NLDS, so you only get two out of my three glaring errors right.
I noticed the absence of Braves related posts and am now horrified of the possible failure due to your jinxing of them. 10 lashings in the courtyard for you good sir!
But, since you brought it up, is it wrong for me to actively root for the Dodgers? It feels wrong and it sounds wrong when I say it, but it's been a while since they were an immediate rival so it's ok now right? I dislike the Rockies, not the level of disdain I harbor for the Mets, but I dislike them enough all the same that I assume it's ok to root for the Dodgers right now, what with Cox and Chipper planning on retiring soon.
And finally, as hot as this team has been lately, would it be fair to dream of a Rockie-esque playoff run? Over the past few years, if you only gave me one game I would be scared for the Braves to close the deal because of the ridiculously low winning percentage in close games. However, this team, playing as they are right now, I think a long series would favor them slightly. Or are the Dodgers, Phillies, and Cardinals just that much better than the Braves that we would only be prolonging the inevitable?
If the Braves do surge into the playoffs, they'll be in a completely new situation. In most seasons during the 14-year run, the Braves were in the position of the Dodgers, Cards, or Phils: a team that knew it was going to be in the playoffs for months and had to stay sharp in September. This year, the Braves would be surging in. One would hope that this would give us an advantage.
With three torrid pitchers and a bullpen whose arms refuse to fall off, this team could win in October. The lineup is nicely balanced, with only left field standing out as a sore spot. My concern is that Greg Norton will play a prominent role.
Go buy tickets. Go to the games. This is as close to 1991 as you're going to see again.
I don't think it could ever be the same. Fulton Co, oh how I miss thee, for nostalgia purposes of course. No really, I miss going to games in that place. I assume it's only because I practically grew up in that place what with growing up playing ball with the Treadway kids and all. But still, those old memories die hard.
And of all the things that were hurt, the ones hurt most by TBS dropping the Braves are the long distance fans, such as myself. I never minded looking for work and living away from Atlanta because I always knew that I had the Braves on TBS. Sure would be nice if they fixed that little issue.
See, it's all your fault now!
You just had to...
I bet you'd run up to the pitcher in the 7th and say, "Hey, only nine more outs!"
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