Sunday, November 16, 2008

My Top 25 was Really Bored this Weekend

1Texas Tech --
2Florida --
3Texas 1
4Alabama 1
5Oklahoma 1
6Southern Cal 1
7Penn State 1
8Oklahoma State 1
9Ohio State 1
10Boise State 1
11Utah 2
12Oregon State 10
13TCU 1
14Missouri 1
15Oregon 5
16Georgia 3
17Michigan State --
18Ball State --
19California 5
20Cincinnati 4
21Pittsburgh --
22Miami (Florida) 4
23Iowa 2
24Mississippi 2
25North Carolina 2

Dropped Out: South Carolina (#16), LSU (#19).


Anonymous said...

I guess I'm confused how Boise St. could be ahead of Utah. BSU's big win this year was over Oregon with Oregon playing their 4th string qb (had to burn his redshirt). Utah has beaten 3 top 25 teams, including the PAC-10 champ, and has a tougher SOS than Alabama. The MWC is also a much better conference than the WAC. Not that your poll matters, I'm just curious.

Michael said...

1. Boise State's win over Oregon is better than anything on Utah's resume, especially when you take into account the fact that the game was on the road and Boise moved the ball at will in building a huge lead.

2. Where do you find three top 25 wins for Utah? I count two: Oregon State and TCU. In both instance, Utah trailed and had to complete an improbable comeback to win. That hits on another issue: Boise State has been more dominant in its wins than Utah has. BSU has one win by one score (the Oregon game that they led by 24 going into the fourth); Utah has five wins by one score.

3. Sagarin's predictor has Boise State ahead of Utah, albeit marginally so. He also rates Alabama's schedule ahead of Utah's.

4. Oregon State is two wins away from being the Pac Ten champ, so hold your horses.

Anonymous said...

Oregon played a redshirt freshman qb. He was their 4th stringer and the Ducks still almost beat Boise State. I wouldn't elevate that to a noteworthy win. Oregon's Sagarin Rating: 28; Oregon State's: 16. After next week, Utah will have beaten Oregon State, TCU (Sag 13, BCS 16) and BYU (Sag 19 / BCS 14). I counted Michigan as the third, as they were ranked at the time.

Of course Boise has more lopsided margin of victories, the next highest rated team they've played is Nevada (62). Utah is undefeated in the MWC which has done very well against BCS competition (6-1 vs. PAC-10; even 1-0 against the mighty SEC).

Finally, it is defense that counts when non-bcs goes up against bcs teams. Utah has it, boise does not. If Utah gets matched up against Alabama in the sugar bowl, expect the non-bcs schools to be 3-1 in such games. Hawaii was not the best non-bcs team last year, and did not belong.

Michael said...

1. Oregon's quarterback played reasonably well in the Boise State game and wasn't the reason why Boise State passed for almost 400 yards on Utah.

2. The fact that you included Michigan as a quality win for Utah is a real stretch.

3. Where are you getting BYU as #14 in Sagarin's ratings? The Sagarin predictor (the ranking that Sagarin swears has the most value because it takes MOV into account) has BYU at #26.

5. Utah beat Michigan (Sagarin #71), Air Force (Sagain #48), and New Mexico (Sagarin #88) by a combined 12 points. Don't act as if Utah has played close games against excellent teams. If you want a common trait between Utah and '07 Hawaii or a distinguishing factor between '08 Utah and '04 Utah, the close games against average to bad teams would be it.

3. Boise State is fourth in the nation in fewest yards per play allowed. They're second in scoring defense, third in pass efficiency defense, and 12 in total defense. I'll acknowledge that they haven't played an especially challenging schedule, but you have no basis to claim that they don't have a defense.

4. Short of Alabama not caring about the game after losing to Florida in the SECCG, Utah is not going to beat Alabama, certainly not in New Orleans and certainly not with Saban matching wits against Kyle Whittingham. In two posts, you've already claimed credit for several future wins, but this is one you don't get.

5. Congrats on Wyoming's big win over a Tennessee team that had fired its coach earlier in the week. Well done.

Anonymous said...

This will be my last post on the great bsu/utah controversy, which no doubt has readers riveted. I notice the week before you had Utah ahead of Boise. I guess a 49 point win the road for Utah was not enough to prevent BSU from jumping them.

Your logic in putting BSU ahead of Utah is absurd. And I loosely use the word "logic". BSU's biggest win came against a team that by all accounts is ranked lower than Oregon State (and I believe they won by 3?). Utah also has beaten TCU, whose only other loss is Oklahoma on the road. I guess BSU's next best win is Louisiana Tech. Nice. Utah has wins over Air Force on the road and Michigan on the road (the UM game was game 1 when RichRod and co. were still playing for something and were riding high off of the UF win). They also have the BYU game this week. Boise has nothing comparable. I do not believe they have even beaten another bowl eligible team. Boise does not have the wins to take #1 non-bcs honors. Not even close.

Boise has played one good offensive team. Oregon and their 4th string qb. They got lit up.

Utah has played some close games. But the difference being that the conference is stronger than UH's WAC from last year, and they have played and beaten top 25 teams. UH didn't play or beat a single top 25 team.

What exactly was Wyoming playing for? Fullmer and co. promised to get to a bowl game. They were playing for that. I get it though -- when the SEC loses, it is because they weren't inspired. It is a no win situation for a non-bcs team. I can't wait to read the headlines on Jan. 2 -- "Utah beats uninspired Alabama team".

If BYU beats Utah this week, forget this entire conversation.

chg said...

Unrelated, but why is anyone other than the Big Ten Conference willing to pay Pete Fiutak for his opinion on cfb?