Negative Grohmentum Commences Operation Grand Slam

When last we met with Negative Grohmentum, it was coming off an unprecedented year in which only four of the nine reigning conference coaches of the year saw their teams regress.  Nick Saban won a national title as one of three reigning SEC coaches of the year.  Brian Kelly led Cincinnati to an unbeaten regular season as the reigning Big East coach of the year.  Paul Johnson won an ACC title had a good year on the field as the reigning ACC coach of the year.  With another year like that, Negative Grohmentum was threatening to go the way of my previous pet theory for identifying overrated teams: the Charles Rogers Theorem, which died after it spat out eventual national champion Florida in 2006 and then eventual #2 Georgia in 2007.  Thankfully, 2010 was a return to glory, and not in a Ty Willingham, we kept getting outgained, but won because of a collection of punt blocks and terrible calls sort of way.  Behold the regression!

SEC - Nick Saban – regressed by 3.5 games
Big Ten - Kirk Ferentz – regressed by 3 games
Big XII - Mack Brown – regressed by 7 games
ACC - Paul Johnson – regressed by 4.5 games
Pac Ten - Chip Kelly – improved by 2 games
Big East - Brian Kelly – regressed by 7.5 games

Now that's a fire!  Five of the six coaches of the year regressed and not by a small margin.  Negative Grohmentum wasn’t screwing around last year.  It grabbed Mack Brown by the lapels and turned his team from a participant in the national title game to a team sitting out the bowl season.  It beat on Cincinnati like Sonny Corleone on Carlo Rizzi.  (I guess the Pitt game was the equivalent of getting beaten with a trash can.)

And best of all, the Big Ten maintained its lengthy winning streak.  Since 1992, no Big Ten coach of the year has seen his team’s record improve the following year.  Jim Tressel just resigned got fired and the only empty spot on his resume was a Dave McClain Coach of the Year award.  Tressel led the Bucks to an unbeaten season in his second year with an underwhelming squad and wasn’t the coach of the year.  He won or tied for the conference title in each of his last six seasons in Columbus, but the Midwestern media never saw fit to honor him with a plaque.  Lloyd Carr suffered the same fate.  Carr won Michigan’s first national title in 49 years, but Joe Tiller was deemed to have done a better job in 1997.  Carr won the conference title in 2004 with a true freshman at quarterback and lost the coach of the year award to Kirk Ferentz.  (I guess that it must have taken a superhuman coaching effort by Ferentz for Iowa to lose to Michigan by only 13 points that year.)  Meanwhile, the Queen of England has won the award three times, despite the fact that he is a combined 5-16 against Tressel and Carr.  Apparently, the key to winning the Dave McClain award is to have crappy seasons so that your good ones stand out.

So which teams are marked for death in 2011?  I’m glad you asked.

SEC – Steve Spurrier – South Carolina
Big Ten – Mark Dantonio – Michigan State
Big XII – Mike Gundy – Oklahoma State
ACC – Ralph Friedgen – Maryland
Pac Ten – Chip Kelly – Oregon
Big East – Randy Edsall – UConn & Charlie Strong – Louisville

Negative Grohmentum is pretty confident about this bunch.  Expecting South Carolina to regress after its first divisional title is a pretty safe bet;* it’s pretty much the same thing as asking “are one of Florida, Georgia, or Tennessee going to wake up?”  (Question: was 2010 South Carolina any different than the collection of good, but not great Gamecock teams that have graced the SEC since South Carolina joined the conference?)  Michigan State is the Platonic ideal of a Big Ten team that would get its coach a Dave McClain award: gaudy record, unremarkable underlying stats, and a near certainty for regression.  Mike Gundy looks to me like George O’Leary minus Ralph Friedgen.  Speaking of Georgia Tech’s former offensive coordinator, Maryland was so impressed by Friedgen’s work last year that they pushed him out the door, a move that made sense when Mike Leach was the rumored replacement and makes little sense now that Randy Edsall is in charge.  Chip Kelly’s Oregon team is bound to regress because there’s almost nowhere to go but down after going 12-1.  The only teams that might defy Negative Grohmentum are UConn and Louisville, because it’s reasonable to improve on 8-5 and 7-6 in a conference where everyone is the same.  The Huskies and Cards will likely determine whether Negative Grohmentum succeeds in setting off a nuclear device inside of Fort Knox.

* – Counterpoint: Spurrier won the SEC Coach of the Year award in 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, and 1996 and kept right on winning conference titles.  The media in the SEC reward the coaches of the best teams, as opposed to the media in the Big Ten, which looks for the coach whose team overcame bad recruiting by winning a bunch of close games in improbable fashion showed guts and moxie en route to getting a hiding in Orlando or Tampa.  Can you tell, by the way, that I am having fun with Strikethrough this morning?  Windows Live Writer is so much fun!

Negative Grohmentum Strikes Early

The media looks at a Maryland team with mediocre talent that went 8-4 all while: (1) missing Virginia Tech; (2) not beating a single ranked opponent during the season; (3) going 4-1 in games decided by one score, including squeakers over Duke and Boston College; and (4) being outgained by nine yards per game and says “Coach of the Year!”  Maryland’s athletic director looks at the same evidence, combined with the fact that coach-in-waiting James Franklin decided to stop waiting and took the Vandy job, and says “You’re fired.”  Is there a better illustration of the uselessness of coach of the year awards than that?  They’re a nicer way of saying “you haven’t recruited that well, but you managed to win a pile of close games so your record flatters your team.  Here’s a plaque!”

For the record, I like Ralph Friedgen a lot.  To the extent that one can tell anything from an interview, Friedgen sounds like a good guy.  His work at Georgia Tech under George O’Leary was outstanding, as were his first several years at Maryland.  However, the Terps’ slide since 2004 – Friedgen was 31-8 in his first three seasons and 43-42 over the next seven – leads to the conclusion that Friedgen is a great coach when someone else is recruiting for him.  Friedgen’s record illustrates the potential downside for hiring guys like Dana Holgorsen or Gus Malzahn: you know that these guys know how to scheme on offense, but can they handle the other aspects of being a head coach?  

From Negative Grohmentum with Love

For the uninitiated, Negative Grohmentum is the effect that teams whose coaches win conference coach of the year will usually see their teams get worse (and often significantly worse) the following season. It's named after three-time ACC Coach of the Year and newly-minted defensive coordinator on the Flats Al Groh, who managed to win the award and regress on a regular basis. Here's what the numbers looked like last summer:

There's no doubt that we have a strong correlation between a coach winning coach of the year and then his team getting worse. 78% of the teams in this situation this decade have seen their record regress the following year. 34% of the teams in the sample saw their record get worse by at least three games. By way of comparison, Phil Steele likes to look at net close wins and yards per point in finding teams that were especially lucky or unlucky in the previous season and are therefore due for a correction. (Page 299 if you're following along at home.) Teams with three net close wins have been weaker or the same the next year 76.7% of the time. Teams with 11.56 offensive yards per point or less have been weaker or the same 72.3% of the time. Teams with 19.85 defensive yards per point or more have been weaker or the same 77.6% of the time. Again, 78% of the teams whose coach won coach of the year have been weaker (not just weaker or the same, but weaker full-stop) the next year.

So how negative was the Grohmentum last year?

SEC - Nick Saban improved by two games, Bobby Johnson regressed by 4.5 games, and Houston Nutt was unchanged.

Big Ten - Joe Paterno was unchanged.

Big XII - Bob Stoops regressed by 3.5 games and Mike Leach regressed by two games.

ACC - Paul Johnson improved by 1.5 games.

Pac Ten - Mike Riley regressed by one game.

Big East - Brian Kelly improved by 1.5 games.

So four coaches saw their teams get worse, three got better, and two were unchanged. Three of the six BCS conferences were won by coaches whose teams should have gotten work. 2009 was a bad year for Negative Grohmentum. Anyway, if we are still buying that it has an effect, here are the coaches whose teams would be taking a step back this year:

SEC - Nick Saban
Big Ten - Kirk Ferentz
Big XII - Mack Brown
ACC - Paul Johnson
Pac Ten - Chip Kelly
Big East - Brian Kelly

We seem to have some mortal locks for regression this year, but how much guidance do we need to know that Alabama is unlikely to match a 14-0 season or that Iowa, Texas, and Georgia Tech will have a hard time doing better than they did last year? Negative Grohmentum is having a low self esteem moment.

Prepare for Four Years of Bad "Use the Force" Puns

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida
2	Southern Cal
3	Alabama
4	Texas
5	California
6	Mississippi	2
7	Penn State
8	Brigham Young	1
9	Cincinnati	5
10	LSU	11
11	Georgia Tech	1
12	Iowa
13	Boise State	3
14	Oklahoma	1
15	TCU	4
16	Clemson	4
17	Oklahoma State	11
18	Missouri	3
19	Ohio State
20	Georgia	2
21	Texas Tech	1
22	Houston
23	Notre Dame	6
24	Baylor	2
25	Virginia Tech	1
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Utah (#23), Arkansas (#25).

Bulleted thoughts on the weekend:

• This is a provisional ballot, so any thoughts on moving teams around would be welcome. I didn't realize that I gave LSU such a bump until I entered the rankings. I also wanted to include Michigan and Auburn, but I couldn't find room.

• You know you're in the South when you go to a six p.m. wedding on a Saturday in the Fall and half the men at the reception are staring and their phones and are furtively giving each other updates on games. In case you're wondering, I was in line for my first drink when Tate Forcier his Greg Mathews in the end zone. I was singing the chorus to "Angel Eyes" at the top of my lungs when Rennie Curran knocked Stephen Garcia's fourth down pass to the ground.

• When the wife and I got into the car to go to the wedding, the Michigan game was coming out of halftime. I remarked to her that it was a good thing that I wasn't going to see the second half because the Irish were moving the ball at will. Despite the fact that Michigan won the game, I came out of it quite impressed with Notre Dame. I still don't think that Charlie Weis is an above-average gameday coach, but he is a terrific recruiter and he has assembled quite a collection of players. The Notre Dame offensive line has gone from a laughing stock to a solid unit, one that gave Jimmy Clausen an embarrassing amount of time to throw the ball against a reasonably good pass rushing defensive line. Clausen is living up to billing, although the jury is still out on his ability to make decisions under duress. Notre Dame's receivers are legitimate. In short, this Notre Dame team might actually give Southern Cal a run for their money for only the second time since the Trojans got good.

• Sometimes, the manner of a rival's demise leads to extra special feelings of schadenfreude. You know, like Michigan State losing in classic "SPARTY NO!!!" fashion after a year of hearing about how this program is totally different under Mark Dantonio.

• Does Auburn have an offense this year? I have a hard time picking between Georgia 41 South Carolina 37 and Auburn 49 Mississippi State 24 as the more shocking score. The SEC West already looked loaded with Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, and a potentially frisky Arkansas. If Auburn is also a top 25-caliber team, then the division looks insane. Step aside, Big XII South.

• Does anyone want to venture a guess as to the number of North Carolina fans who switched from their team's ugly display in Storrs to the Penn State-Syracuse game just to see Greg Paulus take a beating?

• How am I going to handle the Negative Grohmentum implications of Rich Rodriguez winning Big Ten Coach of the Year? At this point, I have to root for Northwestern or Minnesota to have a big year to prevent an uncomfortable summer of disowning another theory.

• Sometimes, a fan base suffers through a year of an inept walk-on quarterback and is rewarded with a true freshman who has a preternatural ability to elude a rush and make accurate throws in critical circumstances. Other times, a fan base suffers through a year of Jonathan Crompton and is rewarded with another year of Jonathan Crompton. I have no love for Tennessee and I certainly don't like their head coach, but I feel bad for Big Orange fans, not to mention the guys on defense who look like they have another year of short fields ahead of them.

• Name teams that struggled for 2-3 quarters against minnows on Saturday: Texas, Alabama, and Florida State. The 'Noles were actually trailing Jacksonville State 9-7 going into the fourth quarter. Something tells me that BYU isn't quaking in their boots at the prospect of playing Florida State in Provo.

• What do you think an Ohio State fan thinks when he/she watches the Cincinnati offense in operation?

Five Outlandish Predictions, Take Five

As per tradition, my friend Ben, the irrationally optimistic Georgia/Saints fan, and I will make five loopy predictions for the upcoming college football season. Thanks to the incredibly convenient label that I created for the posts, you can revisit our previous hits and (mostly) misses. In 2008, Ben took the 0-fer and yours truly got two out of five, hitting on Ole Miss's big season and East Carolina beating West Virginia.

Ben's Five

1. Charlie Weis keeps his job this year, but loses it the following year. I think his entire offensive line is composed of seniors. [Three seniors and two juniors, but who's counting? -Ed.] You are looking at a huge drop off the next year. Also, they will have the sexy players back, Tate, Floyd and Clausen, meaning they will be overrated in the pre-season. I don’t think much of that win at Hawaii last year, and remember the total domination by USC as a greater indicator of their progress under “Schemer.” As a side note, what if they lose to Nevada in the opener? Remember, the Wolfpack are coached by a Hall of Famer and have fielded some decent teams recently. Plus ND did lose to the ‘Cuse last year, at home no less. If that happens and he loses to your beloved Wolverines the next week, does Tenuta become the interim coach by week 3?

[I'm not sure what to think about Notre Dame. On the one hand, Weis strikes me as a bully whose teams get punked every time they pick on someone their own size. Notre Dame fans are generally a clever bunch and will figure or have figured this out. On the other hand, so much talent!]

2. BC crashes very very hard. They lost a lot when Jags left and I think the bottom out this year. The ACC is slowly getting better, in large part to Butch Davis getting things going in Chapel Hill, Tom O’Brien implementing his program at State, and Bowden pursing the Paterno model and letting Jimbo run things in Tallahassee. (I do have an issue with the Swinney hiring, but I really like his hiring of Steele to coach the D, so I will give him two years). Firing a dynamic coach who was making chicken soup with… is a huge mistake. Matt Ryan was a talent, but he blossomed under Jags and what BC did last year with all the injuries was very impressive. BC has killed all of that with their principled stance.

[Way to go out on a limb by predicting bad things for BC, a team picked to finish fifth in a six-team division. After last year, this is Ben picking out a streak-breaker at closing time. Let's hope she doesn't order the double pork chop platter at the Waffle House.]

3. UGA far exceeds Vegas’s expectations, which are 8 wins, by winning 10 games. They win at Stillwater and at Knoxville. They also beat LSU at home, South Carolina at home and on the road in Fayetteville. They lose to Florida and possibly Tech. People seem to forget that Richt keeps pumping in these top ten classes while Tennessee has been down and SC has been average. Talent will win out and UGA has it.

[This is not unreasonable. I'm on record as thinking that Georgia will do well in the opener. Hell, with Georgia's record against defending national champions, I'm surprised that Ben doesn't foresee glory in Jacksonville.]

4. Pete Carroll’s tree will not take root yet. (Ask Nick Holt and Ed Orgeron.) Kiffin in Tennessee and Sarkisian in Washington will do horribly this year. Washington may have the hardest schedule in the country and will struggle to win 3 games. Kiffin has no QB in Tennessee and even though he recruited well, those guys are way too green to play in the SEC. They will not win 10 games between the two programs.

[I agree with this, as well. USC's regression on offense after Norm Chow left does not speak well of Kiffin or Sarkisian. Vegas has these two combining for 11 wins, so going nine or fewer is a smidge of a risk.]

5. Michigan will far exceed expectations and will win 9 games. Their schedule is a joke, and they should be 3-1 OOC, at least. If they beat ND in Ann Arbor, than 10 wins is clearly attainable. That means that they only have to go 6-2 in the Big Ten to hit the number. Outside of PSU and Ohio State, who scares you as a Michigan fan? Iowa is in Iowa City and they play Sparty at East Lansing. Color me unafraid. Maybe Illinois, but just look at the coach on the other side. It is cliché by now, but Rich Rod turns things around in year two. He has the schedule to do it.

[From your lips to G-d's ears. As will be clear from my first prediction, I'm high on at least one team on Michigan's schedule...]

Michael's Five

1. Iowa finishes ahead of Penn State and in the top two in the Big Ten. I don't quite understand why Iowa isn't getting more love this preseason. Did they win nine games last year solely because of Shonn Greene? The line in front of him, which returns three starters and plugs two seniors into the open spots, had nothing to do with it? The defense that allowed 16 points per game and 97 yards rushing per game in Big Ten play and returns eight starters had nothing to do with it? Iowa wins in State College and the game of the year in the Big Ten is November 14 when the Hawkeyes travel to Columbus.

2. Arkansas finishes ahead of at least one of Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU. They have 18 starters back, one of the best coaches in college football on the sideline, two legitimate SEC running backs, and an enormous upgrade at quarterback from Casey Dick to Ryan Mallett.

3. Georgia Tech loses four games and is out of the race in the ACC Coastal by November. I'm banking on Negative Grohmentum here, along with ACC defenses being a little more savvy to Tech's offense. The games against Virginia and Virginia Tech in the second half of October will be the Jackets' Waterloo (or Kursk, if you're Eastern Front inclined like I am). Tech has a dreadful record in Charlottesville and if there's one team you'd trust to slow down the Tech running game, it's the Hokies.

4. Baylor makes a bowl game. If Indiana, Vandy, and Arizona have all made it in recent years, it's time for the Bears to break their duck. After watching their performance in Lubbock at the end of last season, I'm fully on the Robert Griffin bandwagon. How about a trip to El Paso to play Stanford?

5. Steve Spurrier retires at the end of the year and is replaced by Charlie Strong.

Introducing Negative Grohmentum

So I was reading Phil Steele the other night and ruminating on the demise of my beloved Charles Rogers Theorem when something dawned on me. I was looking at the conference stat pages and was reminded of the fact that, at this time last year, Sylvester Croom was the reigning SEC Coach of the Year. A lot of good that did him. And then I remembered that Al Groh has won the ACC Coach of the Year not once, not twice, but thrice. 20 minutes later, I was ploughing through my Phil Steele archive, which dates back to 2001.

An observation started to form: winning the coach of the year award is a curse because the winning coach's team almost inevitably regresses the following year. Negative Grohmentum was born. So how tight is the correlation between a head honcho winning coach of the year in a BCS conference and then watching his team get worse.


SEC

2008 - Nick Saban / Bobby Johnson / Houston Nutt

2007 - Sylvester Croom - 3.5 games worse

2006 - Houston Nutt - 1.5 games worse

2005 - Mark Richt - 1 game worse

2004 - Tommy Tuberville - 3.5 games worse

2003 - Nick Saban - 3 games worse

2002 - Mark Richt - 2 games worse

2001 - Houston Nutt - 1.5 games better

2000 - Lou Holtz - 1 game better

Total - six of eight teams regressed; mean of 1.5 game regression; median of 1.75 game regression.

Big Ten

2008 - Joe Paterno

2007 - Ron Zook - 3.5 games worse

2006 - Bret Bielema - 3 games worse

2005 - Joe Paterno - 2.5 games worse

2004 - Kirk Ferentz - 3 games worse

2003 - John L. Smith - 2.5 games worse

2002 - Kirk Ferentz - 1 game worse

2001 - Ron Turner - 5 games worse

2000 - Randy Walker - 3.5 games worse

Total - all eight teams regressed; mean of 3 game regression; median of 3 game regression.


Big XII

2008 - Bob Stoops / Mike Leach

2007 - Mark Mangino - 4 games worse

2006 - Bob Stoops - no change

2005 - Mack Brown - 3 games worse

2004 - Gary Barnett - 1 game worse

2003 - Bill Snyder - 5 games worse

2002 - Les Miles - 1 game better

2001 - Gary Barnett - 1.5 games worse

2000 - Bob Stoops - 2 games worse

Total - six of eight teams regressed; mean of 1.94 game regression; median of 1.75 game regression.


ACC

2008 - Paul Johnson

2007 - Al Groh - 3.5 games worse

2006 - Jim Grobe - 1.5 games worse

2005 - Frank Beamer - 1 game worse

2004 - Al Groh - 1 game worse

2003 - Tommy Bowden - 2 games worse

2002 - Al Groh - .5 games worse

2001 - Ralph Friedgen - unchanged

2000 - George O'Leary - 1.5 games worse

Total - seven of eight teams regressed; mean of 1.37 game regression; median of 1.25 game regression.


Pac Ten

2008 - Mike Riley

2007 - Dennis Erickson - 4.5 games worse

2006 - Pete Carroll - unchanged

2005 - Pete Carroll - 1 game worse / Karl Dorrell - 3.5 games worse

2004 - Jeff Tedford - 2 games worse

2003 - Pete Carroll - 1 game better / Bill Doba - 4 games worse

2002 - Jeff Tedford - unchanged

2001 - Mike Price - .5 games worse

2000 - Dennis Erickson - 5.5 games worse

Total - seven of ten teams regressed; mean of 2 game regression; median of 1.5 game regression.


Big East

2008 - Brian Kelly

2007 - Brian Kelly - .5 games better

2006 - Greg Schiano - 3 games worse

2005 - Rich Rodriguez - .5 games worse

2004 - Walt Harris - 2.5 games worse

2003 - Rich Rodriguez - .5 games better

2002 - Larry Coker - 1 game worse

2001 - Larry Coker - .5 games worse

2000 - Butch Davis - 1 game better

Total - five of eight teams regressed; mean of .69 game regression; median of .5 game regression.


Grand Total - 39 of 50 teams regressed; mean of 1.76 game regression; median of 1.5 game regression.


So what's going on here?

To a certain extent, this is good ol' regression to the mean. A coach wins coach of the year in a very good season and then his team will typically take a step back the following year. There isn't much room for improvement after a very successful season. A coach will usually win coach of the year when the voters determine that a program is at its absolute apex: an unbeaten season for Texas, eight wins for Virginia, etc. A team might do well with an experienced roster and then fall back to earth the following year with younger replacements. Schedule can also play into the equation. A team might have an excellent record because of a favorable schedule and then regress when they rotate to tougher opponents or more critical road games in the following season.

That said, these numbers demonstrate a misunderstanding that a lot of people have about what truly matters in college football: talent. I'm going to step out of the objective world for a second and speculate that the sort of coach that wins coach of the year is often one whose team was lucky. Not to keep picking on Croom or Groh, but they won coach of the year after their teams won a bunch of close games. The media looked at their teams and concluded "that team had no business winning eight games, so the coach must have done a great job." What the media should be saying is "that team had no business winning eight games, so they were lucky as hell and are going to take a step back." In other words, the coach of the year award is a pronouncement that a team really wasn't as talented as its record. It's an unintentional veiled insult that mistakes good fortune with good coaching.

There's no doubt that we have a strong correlation between a coach winning coach of the year and then his team getting worse. 78% of the teams in this situation this decade have seen their record regress the following year. 34% of the teams in the sample saw their record get worse by at least three games. By way of comparison, Phil Steele likes to look at net close wins and yards per point in finding teams that were especially lucky or unlucky in the previous season and are therefore due for a correction. (Page 299 if you're following along at home.) Teams with three net close wins have been weaker or the same the next year 76.7% of the time. Teams with 11.56 offensive yards per point or less have been weaker or the same 72.3% of the time. Teams with 19.85 defensive yards per point or more have been weaker or the same 77.6% of the time. Again, 78% of the teams whose coach won coach of the year have been weaker (not just weaker or the same, but weaker full-stop) the next year.

Random Thoughts on the Data

So which teams are the lucky ones who have a four-in-five chance of seeing their records get worse this year? Alabama, Ole Miss, Vandy, Penn State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, Oregon State, and Cincinnati.

Negative Grohmentum has been especially pronounced in recent years. In the the last four seasons, the only team with a reigning conference coach of the year that has improved was last year's Cincinnati team, which went from 10-3 to 11-3.

Negative Grohmentum is also especially pronounced in the Big Ten, mainly because the voters have not given the award to Michigan or Ohio State coaches this decade, most likely because of an assumption that those programs have natural advantages, but those natural advantages make those two programs the consistent winners in the conference. (Insert "3-9!" joke here.) Michigan and Ohio State have also been consistent winners this decade and Big Ten voters appear to be attracted by major changes in a won-loss record. How else does one explain the fact that Jim Tressel's teams have won or shared four Big Ten titles, but he has never won the conference coach of the year. Meanwhile, Joe Paterno has won the conference coach of the year twice because his teams have followed the decent-decent-very good-decent-decent-very good pattern, whereas Tressel's teams have been consistently very good. (Insert "SEC Speed Killz!" joke here.) Tressel is penalized because he almost never has to come back from a mediocre season. Illinois has finished over .500 exactly twice this decade and its coaches have won coach of the year both times. "Hey, you've taken a program that is routinely referred to as a sleeping giant and won enough games to make a bowl in which you'll be slaughtered. Here's a trophy for your trouble!" In case you're interested, the last Big Ten team with a reigning coach of the year that did not regress: the 1992 Michigan Wolverines. 1992 is also the last season in which a Michigan or Ohio State coach won the Big Ten coach of the year, despite the fact that those programs have won or shared the conference title in 12 of the 16 seasons since.

Urban Meyer: two national titles in four years, no SEC coach of the year awards. Hell, does anyone want to take bets on whether Florida mimics the '95 Huskers this fall and Meyer is beaten out for coach of the year by Bobby Petrino because Arkansas goes 8-4?

Coaches who have won three coach of the year titles this decade: Pete Carroll, Bob Stoops, Houston Nutt, and Al Groh. The former two are on just about every list of the best coaches in America; the third has been essentially fired; and the fourth is on the hot seat.

By my unofficial count, 12 of the coaches on this list have been fired or forced out of the jobs they held where they won coach of the year: Nutt, Tuberville, Croom, Smith, Turner, Barnett, Bowden, Dorrell, Doba, Erickson, Harris, and Coker.