Monday, September 12, 2005

Furcal

I can't remember who left the comment that Rafael Furcal isn't going to be expensive this off-season, but Joe Sheehan of the outstanding Baseball Prospectus agrees with me and, in fact, sets Furcal's value higher:

"I missed this, so maybe you did, too: Rafael Furcal, whose OBP was below .300 on July 1, is hitting .322/.399/.470 since the All-Star break and having his best defensive season to boot. He's a huge part of the Braves' jillionth division title, and about to become a very wealthy man. If Edgar Renteria got four years and $40 million coming off his .287/.327/.401 age-28 season, how does Furcal not start at four and $48 million hitting the market a a year younger and with higher everything, including a possible Gold Glove Award?"

Furcal's value won't be quite that high because most of the primary big spenders in baseball - the Yankees (Jeter), Red Sox (Renteria), Orioles (Tejada), Mets (Reyes), Dodgers (Izturis), Phillies (Rollins), Angels (Cabrera), Cardinals (Eckstein), and Cubs (Nomar) - all have long-term commitments at the position. The most likely suitors would be the White Sox, Mariners, Nationals, Astros, D-Backs, or Giants, unless some team came completely out of nowhere and decided to increase their payroll. That said, there's always the possibility that one of the big market teams could trade their shortstop or move him around the infield, as the Cubs are apparently considering. Still, the Braves might luck out this winter and find that the market for Furcal isn't commensurate with his actual value. On the other hand, if Giles was the free agent, then a number of the wealthy teams would be interested, starting with the Red Sox.

4 comments:

Andy said...

Nomar signed a one-year deal for this year with the Cubs (to prove that he could play a year injury-free - oops!). So they have no committment to him past this season and will have lots of money to spend with Sosa completely coming off the books. Their lack of a true lead-off hitter was also quite apparent this year, so I would consider them to be a serious suitor for Furcal (and the Chicago media is already pushing for him).

Anonymous said...

Damn my comment from yesterday was deleted. Anyways, I own up to the comment about Furcal's salary Michael. In my defense though, at the time he had only begun his recent stretch of offensive hotness. Now that he's torn off the second half numbers that he has, I can see your point.

On a side note...what's the name of that kid we have in the minors? I had read about a phenom SS earlier in the year that we have. Any info on him?

Stone75

peacedog said...

Elvis Andrus. he finished the year at the GCL hitting .295 - he slumped over the last few weeks. He turned 17 this year - sometime late in the summer; I know it was after he was drafted. He's Venezuelan IIRC.

Hey, he actually got sent up to Danville where he went 5/18 with 4/4 BB/K; I missed that. So on the year, he went 54/184 (.293) with 23/32 BB/K. Also, his BB/K improved as the season went on, something like 14/13 over the second portion of the season. He's supposed to be kind of a big kid - I swear I read he's like 6-2. He's supposed to grow into his power (he had 7 doubles, a triple, and 3 homers).

Don't discount the two kids at Danville. 3B Eric Campbell (.313-18-64) had a monste year, as did C Max Rodriguez (.3457-8-47)(and yes, the Braves officially have a third bit-time catching prospect, though when tehy are this young it's true you never know how they're going to turn out).

Anonymous said...

That's why I like this blog...great info from dedicated braves fans. And the spread picks aint too bad neither...thanks peacedog. Too bad that kid is 17..it'll be a couple years no doubt.