Monday, January 09, 2006
Revisiting my Pre-Season Predictions
For your amusement, here are my five outlandish predictions for college football from August, along with those of my friend Ben. Happily, I'm giving myself credit for getting 2.5 of them right. I was right that Notre Dame would be better than expected and that Louisville would lose two games. I was wrong that Cal would win the Pac Ten (you need semi-competent quarterback play for that) and that USC's defense would be better than their offense by the end of the season, the equivalent of predicting smashing success for the Democrats on the morning of the '94 elections. Maybe I'm cheating, but I get half-credit for picking Maryland to win the ACC Coastal Division, not because the Terps were decent, but because I thought that Florida State would be mediocre. After an 8-5 year that included blow-out losses to Clemson and Florida, I feel vindicated in that decision, ACC Title be damned.
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5 comments:
Fla came on strong in the endgame, dickweed.
Playing better in the final two games of the season as compared to the prior ten is one of the two criteria for being overrated the following year, so Florida playing strong at the end makes them more likely to be overrated, not less.
http://collegefootballnews.com/2005/Columnists/Misc/ME_Overrated.htm
Save for Wyoming and A&M, I think I acquitted myself fairly well. Remember, these were outlandish predictions. Iowa was 5-3 in conf. play, but lost four games overall, not too bad. SC lost 1 game not two, and Bama competed for the west title up until the final game, not too shabby. Fla. did not come on strong. Their victory over FSU was a bit tainted because of how weak FSU was and let's just saw that a special teams TD and an interception for a TD in the bowl game in no way validates that their offense was improving.
I'd give you credit for the Iowa prediction, as they did lose five games. We were both right that they would be very overrated. We were both wrong on USC. I'd also give you half credit on Alabama; they didn't win the West, but they were better than expected.
As for Florida, the media will overlook the legitimate factors that you point to and simply notice that they beat FSU and Iowa in their last two games, so they have Joementum going into the season.
One more note on the Fla. hype: This is the first UF team to ever beat FSU, Tenn. Ga. and win its bowl game. More for the hype machine.
While I generally agree with recruiting issues, Fla. has 8, that's right 8 receivers in this class- overhypped to say the least.
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