Picking a weak spot in the Braves' batting order this year is not unlike picking out a malapropism in a Sarah Palin speech, but I want to point out the situation in left field. Melky Cabrera is the nominal starter there and he has an OPS of .476. Matt Diaz spells him in left and his OPS is a robust .501. The Braves do not have a home run from their left fielders, despite the fact that left field should be the easiest position at which to find a hitter, other than first base.
The problems in left field are nothing new for this team. While I was messing around with Baseball Reference in an attempt to find punch and judy hitters who have career slugging percentages higher than the Braves' current collective .350 SLG (answer: David Eckstein has a career slugging percentage of .358), I came across this page listing the players who have started the most games at each position for every Braves team in history. The Braves have had a different left fielder every year since Chipper manned the position in 2002 and 2003. Moreover, Chipper only moved to the position because the Braves had cycled through candidates ever since trading Ryan Klesko in the disastrous Quilvio Veras deal. That trade set the stage for a decade of a revolving door in left, with just about all of the participants providing substandard production.
In short, the Braves have thought for the better part of a decade that left fielders are fungible and that the team can find solid production at the position on the cheap. (The same case can be made at first base, with the difference being that the Braves did produce Adam Laroche to play the position reasonably well for a three-year stretch, whereas the team has not found any left fielders in the farm system.) However, the Braves' confidence in finding economical options at the position has been misplaced. Think about that the next time you're watching Melky struggle through another at-bat.
Showing posts with label Customary Rending of Garments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Customary Rending of Garments. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Sunday, August 31, 2008
This Chicken Salad Sure Smells Funny
Let's get this out of the way right off the bat: Michigan's offense was terrible against Utah. The offense scored three touchdowns off of short fields created by the defense and the special teams, but it only managed one possession where it created anything approximating a drive and that ended with Brandon Minor fumbling the ball away. The Michigan offense is a perfect storm of bad factors. It is:
Inexperienced: only three returning starters. The starting backfield was a sophomore walk-on and two freshman running backs.
Ill-fitting: Michigan does not have a quarterback who presents a running threat, nor does it have any dangerous slot receivers.
Learning a New Scheme: Rich Rodriguez is presented with the dual challenge of developing the basic technique of a pile of young players, along with teaching them a new scheme. The playbook is already limited by the fact that the talent isn't a good fit for the system; it is further limited by the fact that Rodriguez has to spoon-feed the offense in small doses.
Possibly Bad: It's not just that the quarterbacks are bad fits for this offense; they might simply be bad fits for any offense. Nick Sheridan does not have the arm to threaten a defense down the field except with moonballs down the sideline. Stephen Threet might turn into a good player, but he takes an awfully long time to read a defense. There's a reason why Michigan was so leery of throwing the ball down the middle of the field yesterday. That reason is most likely the fact that the quarterbacks showed themselves to be bad decision-makers and likely to throw interceptions when they did so in Fall practice.
(The only throw down the middle that I recall was a streak route by Brandon Minor that was wide open in the second quarter and Sheridan overthrew it. That was a great call by Rodriguez and Calvin Magee.)
All that said, yesterday illustrated that the transition to the spread is a good one for Michigan. Utah runs the spread and created all sorts of issues for a good Michigan defense for a half. Oregon, Missouri, Illinois, and Florida all scored 40+ points running variants of this offense. It is clearly the way to go. Michigan has one of the inventors of the offense running the show. One bad game or even one bad season does not change the fact that Michigan made the right decision going in this direction.
Yesterday also illustrated that struggles for first-year coaches are to be expected. Bobby Petrino was down by ten points at home to Western Illinois before Arkansas saved themselves. Mike Sherman lost his opener to Arkansas State. Washington State got blown out in Seattle by Oklahoma State. The only new coaches for BCS conference teams who got wins were playing I-AA opponents (Duke and Georgia Tech) or walked into a perfect situation (Ole Miss). If Jim Tressel and Pete Carroll combined for 11 losses in their first seasons at Ohio State and USC, then it's probably fair to assume that a good coach won't create magic overnight.
So what are the positives to be taken from the game yesterday?
1. The Barwis effect is real. The defensive linemen didn't become man-eating centaurs liked I'd hoped, but the team did show a major conditioning advantage. The defense was dominant in the second half. Speaking of which...
2. Michigan has a defensive coordinator who can make halftime adjustments. Michigan's defense was disappointing in the first half, but they came out in the second half playing a 3-35 and shut down a quality offense. Speaking of that quality offense...
3. Utah is a good team. If Utah were in the Big Ten, they would be smack dab in the Wisconsin-Penn State-Illinois jumble below Ohio State. Hell, they'd probably be towards the top of that clump. The Utes' indiscipline aside, Utah runs a well-designed offense with a terrific quarterback at the controls. Brian Johnson is probably the best quarterback that Michigan will face all year. He made some terrific throws in the first half when he had time and only clammed up in the second half when the coverage improved and he was being hit consistently. Utah has the requisite number of kick-ass Polynesians and a ludicrous cyborg kicker who put every field goal dead-center between the uprights with room to spear. If they win fewer than ten games, it can only be because of an injury to Johnson or Kyle Whittingham getting too conservative with a lead.
4. Michigan's special teams were quite good. The Wolverines blocked a PAT and a punt, they forced a fumble on a punt return, the kickoff returns looked dangerous, and they got a 50-yard field goal.
All in all, I was thinking at halftime that this would be a repeat of Oregon 2007 and ended the game thinking that it was Virginia 1995. Given that my expectations for the season were for seven wins and my expectations at halftime were for total humiliation, 25-23 isn't so bad. If only Michigan were in the ACC...
Inexperienced: only three returning starters. The starting backfield was a sophomore walk-on and two freshman running backs.
Ill-fitting: Michigan does not have a quarterback who presents a running threat, nor does it have any dangerous slot receivers.
Learning a New Scheme: Rich Rodriguez is presented with the dual challenge of developing the basic technique of a pile of young players, along with teaching them a new scheme. The playbook is already limited by the fact that the talent isn't a good fit for the system; it is further limited by the fact that Rodriguez has to spoon-feed the offense in small doses.
Possibly Bad: It's not just that the quarterbacks are bad fits for this offense; they might simply be bad fits for any offense. Nick Sheridan does not have the arm to threaten a defense down the field except with moonballs down the sideline. Stephen Threet might turn into a good player, but he takes an awfully long time to read a defense. There's a reason why Michigan was so leery of throwing the ball down the middle of the field yesterday. That reason is most likely the fact that the quarterbacks showed themselves to be bad decision-makers and likely to throw interceptions when they did so in Fall practice.
(The only throw down the middle that I recall was a streak route by Brandon Minor that was wide open in the second quarter and Sheridan overthrew it. That was a great call by Rodriguez and Calvin Magee.)
All that said, yesterday illustrated that the transition to the spread is a good one for Michigan. Utah runs the spread and created all sorts of issues for a good Michigan defense for a half. Oregon, Missouri, Illinois, and Florida all scored 40+ points running variants of this offense. It is clearly the way to go. Michigan has one of the inventors of the offense running the show. One bad game or even one bad season does not change the fact that Michigan made the right decision going in this direction.
Yesterday also illustrated that struggles for first-year coaches are to be expected. Bobby Petrino was down by ten points at home to Western Illinois before Arkansas saved themselves. Mike Sherman lost his opener to Arkansas State. Washington State got blown out in Seattle by Oklahoma State. The only new coaches for BCS conference teams who got wins were playing I-AA opponents (Duke and Georgia Tech) or walked into a perfect situation (Ole Miss). If Jim Tressel and Pete Carroll combined for 11 losses in their first seasons at Ohio State and USC, then it's probably fair to assume that a good coach won't create magic overnight.
So what are the positives to be taken from the game yesterday?
1. The Barwis effect is real. The defensive linemen didn't become man-eating centaurs liked I'd hoped, but the team did show a major conditioning advantage. The defense was dominant in the second half. Speaking of which...
2. Michigan has a defensive coordinator who can make halftime adjustments. Michigan's defense was disappointing in the first half, but they came out in the second half playing a 3-35 and shut down a quality offense. Speaking of that quality offense...
3. Utah is a good team. If Utah were in the Big Ten, they would be smack dab in the Wisconsin-Penn State-Illinois jumble below Ohio State. Hell, they'd probably be towards the top of that clump. The Utes' indiscipline aside, Utah runs a well-designed offense with a terrific quarterback at the controls. Brian Johnson is probably the best quarterback that Michigan will face all year. He made some terrific throws in the first half when he had time and only clammed up in the second half when the coverage improved and he was being hit consistently. Utah has the requisite number of kick-ass Polynesians and a ludicrous cyborg kicker who put every field goal dead-center between the uprights with room to spear. If they win fewer than ten games, it can only be because of an injury to Johnson or Kyle Whittingham getting too conservative with a lead.
4. Michigan's special teams were quite good. The Wolverines blocked a PAT and a punt, they forced a fumble on a punt return, the kickoff returns looked dangerous, and they got a 50-yard field goal.
All in all, I was thinking at halftime that this would be a repeat of Oregon 2007 and ended the game thinking that it was Virginia 1995. Given that my expectations for the season were for seven wins and my expectations at halftime were for total humiliation, 25-23 isn't so bad. If only Michigan were in the ACC...
Monday, November 19, 2007
I’m Not Supposed to Be Like This
But it's OK.
I listened to Green on Saturday morning and that line, wailed by Michael Stipe, was stuck in my head throughout the game on Saturday. Lloyd Carr's last game in Michigan Stadium was not supposed to be a record-setting show of offensive ineptitude, but it was and that's OK. I wasn't overly upset watching the game. For one thing, I've gotten painfully used to Ohio State being the better team, especially on the offensive and defensive lines. (More on that in a moment.) For another, the injuries that Michigan suffered did present a convenient excuse. A healthy Chad Henne would have made the game closer, although it would not have necessarily changed the result. And finally, knowing that this was Lloyd's last home game made the occasion sad, but it blunted my anger because there was no fear that he would respond to failure by retrenching and demanding greater execution in a completely predictable offensive scheme.
So how did Michigan end up being held below 100 yards of offensive on Saturday. The faux-scientific phrase I kept using to friends on the phone, my wife, and my 14-month old son was "multi-systemic breakdown." Typically, the message board discussion after the game was "it's because of this and not that!" No, it was this and that. The offense collapsed because of a variety of factors, mostly related to complete domination of the line of scrimmage. Why did that happen? I'm glad you asked:
1. If you're a college football fan with Internet access, then you have probably heard Michigan fans complain about strength and conditioning coach Mike Gittelson. I don't pretend to understand weight lifting. My approach at the gym is typically to see what weights are available for the muscle group I've randomly chosen for that day and then to do them in no particular order. That said, Michigan is employing a weight training approach using more machine exercises and fewer power cleans and squats. Michigan's approach has been rejected by every major program other than Penn State. Swirl that around in your mouth so the full bouquet of "we do it just like Penn State" flavor can wash over your palate. When John Beilein was hired as the basketball coach, he immediately created his own weight training program for the basketball team and wanted Gittelson to have no involvement.
As a result, Michigan's offensive linemen typically look like sickly beached whales being pushed around by the tide. This might seem like an odd criticism in a year in which Jake Long is going to be the first lineman drafted, but Long has been excellent since his freshman year. How much development did he really require? Michigan's S&C program didn't fail Long or Adam Kraus, but it does fail players who need more help.
One other thought on S&C: Michigan's one good drive on Saturday was accomplished using a no-huddle offense in the first quarter and then UM didn't use it again until the game was over. I'd prefer not to think that Michigan's coaches are that dense, so is it possible that they went away from the no-huddle because the offensive linemen did not have the stamina to perform without 25 seconds off between plays?
2. Michigan's offensive line coach is Andy Moeller. You may recognize that last name as being very similar to that of former Michigan coach Gary Moeller. That's because Gary is Andy's father. What will follow next won't surprise you in the least. Andy Moeller has been Michigan's offensive line coach since 2002 and Michigan has not had a complete offensive line in that period. Michigan has had a weak right side for three years running. How does that happen at a major program? Is it really that hard to find a decent right guard? Michigan linemen just don't seem to get better. Fundamentally, Lloyd Carr went out with a whimper because he's loyal to a fault and he kept his friend (Mike Debord) and another friend's son (Moeller) on staff in critical positions. It's usually good to be loyal, but in Lloyd's case, loyalty became cronyism.
The contrast between Michigan's coaching and Georgia's was quite evident as I flipped between the two games on Saturday. Georgia started the season with a brand new offensive line full of underclassmen that caused one idiot to proclaim them the most overrated team in the country. Michigan started the season with three seniors (including a top five pick) and two sophomores on the line. By November, Georgia is ripping off huge rushing performances and protecting Matt Stafford on a weekly basis while Michigan couldn't run the ball on Wisconsin's dreadful run defense or protect a gimpy Chad Henne from being pillaged. When Georgia had issues on the offensive line, they went out and hired Stacy Searels, the excellent offensive line coach at LSU. When Michigan had issues on the offensive line, they left the former head coach's son in charge. QED.
3. Steve Schilling, a five-star recruit from Washington State, was a good bet to start as a true freshman in 2006, but he contracted mono and had to be redshirted. Not surprisingly, he lost a good deal of weight when he had mono. He was then injured and missed spring practice. When you think of Vernon Gholston throwing him around like a rag doll on Saturday, keep that fact in mind. Michigan has done a poor job of developing offensive linemen over the past several years, which forced them to rely on Schilling so much, but I'd be lying if I did point out a luck factor involved.
4. Michigan's running scheme is totally predictable. The zone stretch play that was so successful in 2006 was useless in 2007, mainly because opponents figured out to slant their linemen on the plays and shoot into gaps to blow plays up. Northwestern completely shut down Michigan's running game in late September by taking this approach. Michigan being Michigan, little changed. Michigan occasionally had good rushing games because Mike Hart is five feet and nine inches of awesome, but when Hart's ankle went out against Purdue in the second quarter on his 21st carry of the game, the running game went kaput.
5. Ohio State's defense is very good. That's not an excuse for Michigan gaining fewer yards against OSU than any other Buckeye opponent all season, but I need to avoid the fan tendency to assume that my team controls its own fate. Ohio State is strong in every defensive position group, but maybe this shouldn't surprise us since the Bucks had a very good defense in 2006 and then returned nine starters. In retrospect, the "Ohio State is rebuilding" meme from this past summer was complete crap because it assumed that skill position players are the only important players on the field. Ohio State returned almost the entire defense, as well as three starters on the offensive line and an excellent running back. Should we have all thought that the Bucks would collapse simply because they had a new quarterback (and I hesitate to call Boeckman "new" since he's about 37 years old) and new receivers?
Overall, Saturday was an illustration as to why Jim Tressel has asserted control in the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry: his teams are simply better on the lines. Michigan dominated prior to Tressel because Michigan almost always had better quarterbacks; Ohio State has dominated since then because Ohio State has better offensive lines. (Florida fans, please stop laughing uncontrollably. Let he who has not put on 40 pounds before a critical bowl game cast the first stone.) Ohio State had absolutely no passing threat whatsoever on Saturday, as Boeckman was spooked by the weather. Nevertheless, they won comfortably because they dominated Michigan on the line of scrimmage. Bo and Woody would have been proud.
(FYI: I feel bad being so negative on the day that Lloyd retires. For the record, I see Lloyd as a solid B+ coach and I'll have some nice things to say about him when I have a little distance from Saturday.)
I listened to Green on Saturday morning and that line, wailed by Michael Stipe, was stuck in my head throughout the game on Saturday. Lloyd Carr's last game in Michigan Stadium was not supposed to be a record-setting show of offensive ineptitude, but it was and that's OK. I wasn't overly upset watching the game. For one thing, I've gotten painfully used to Ohio State being the better team, especially on the offensive and defensive lines. (More on that in a moment.) For another, the injuries that Michigan suffered did present a convenient excuse. A healthy Chad Henne would have made the game closer, although it would not have necessarily changed the result. And finally, knowing that this was Lloyd's last home game made the occasion sad, but it blunted my anger because there was no fear that he would respond to failure by retrenching and demanding greater execution in a completely predictable offensive scheme.
So how did Michigan end up being held below 100 yards of offensive on Saturday. The faux-scientific phrase I kept using to friends on the phone, my wife, and my 14-month old son was "multi-systemic breakdown." Typically, the message board discussion after the game was "it's because of this and not that!" No, it was this and that. The offense collapsed because of a variety of factors, mostly related to complete domination of the line of scrimmage. Why did that happen? I'm glad you asked:
1. If you're a college football fan with Internet access, then you have probably heard Michigan fans complain about strength and conditioning coach Mike Gittelson. I don't pretend to understand weight lifting. My approach at the gym is typically to see what weights are available for the muscle group I've randomly chosen for that day and then to do them in no particular order. That said, Michigan is employing a weight training approach using more machine exercises and fewer power cleans and squats. Michigan's approach has been rejected by every major program other than Penn State. Swirl that around in your mouth so the full bouquet of "we do it just like Penn State" flavor can wash over your palate. When John Beilein was hired as the basketball coach, he immediately created his own weight training program for the basketball team and wanted Gittelson to have no involvement.
As a result, Michigan's offensive linemen typically look like sickly beached whales being pushed around by the tide. This might seem like an odd criticism in a year in which Jake Long is going to be the first lineman drafted, but Long has been excellent since his freshman year. How much development did he really require? Michigan's S&C program didn't fail Long or Adam Kraus, but it does fail players who need more help.
One other thought on S&C: Michigan's one good drive on Saturday was accomplished using a no-huddle offense in the first quarter and then UM didn't use it again until the game was over. I'd prefer not to think that Michigan's coaches are that dense, so is it possible that they went away from the no-huddle because the offensive linemen did not have the stamina to perform without 25 seconds off between plays?
2. Michigan's offensive line coach is Andy Moeller. You may recognize that last name as being very similar to that of former Michigan coach Gary Moeller. That's because Gary is Andy's father. What will follow next won't surprise you in the least. Andy Moeller has been Michigan's offensive line coach since 2002 and Michigan has not had a complete offensive line in that period. Michigan has had a weak right side for three years running. How does that happen at a major program? Is it really that hard to find a decent right guard? Michigan linemen just don't seem to get better. Fundamentally, Lloyd Carr went out with a whimper because he's loyal to a fault and he kept his friend (Mike Debord) and another friend's son (Moeller) on staff in critical positions. It's usually good to be loyal, but in Lloyd's case, loyalty became cronyism.
The contrast between Michigan's coaching and Georgia's was quite evident as I flipped between the two games on Saturday. Georgia started the season with a brand new offensive line full of underclassmen that caused one idiot to proclaim them the most overrated team in the country. Michigan started the season with three seniors (including a top five pick) and two sophomores on the line. By November, Georgia is ripping off huge rushing performances and protecting Matt Stafford on a weekly basis while Michigan couldn't run the ball on Wisconsin's dreadful run defense or protect a gimpy Chad Henne from being pillaged. When Georgia had issues on the offensive line, they went out and hired Stacy Searels, the excellent offensive line coach at LSU. When Michigan had issues on the offensive line, they left the former head coach's son in charge. QED.
3. Steve Schilling, a five-star recruit from Washington State, was a good bet to start as a true freshman in 2006, but he contracted mono and had to be redshirted. Not surprisingly, he lost a good deal of weight when he had mono. He was then injured and missed spring practice. When you think of Vernon Gholston throwing him around like a rag doll on Saturday, keep that fact in mind. Michigan has done a poor job of developing offensive linemen over the past several years, which forced them to rely on Schilling so much, but I'd be lying if I did point out a luck factor involved.
4. Michigan's running scheme is totally predictable. The zone stretch play that was so successful in 2006 was useless in 2007, mainly because opponents figured out to slant their linemen on the plays and shoot into gaps to blow plays up. Northwestern completely shut down Michigan's running game in late September by taking this approach. Michigan being Michigan, little changed. Michigan occasionally had good rushing games because Mike Hart is five feet and nine inches of awesome, but when Hart's ankle went out against Purdue in the second quarter on his 21st carry of the game, the running game went kaput.
5. Ohio State's defense is very good. That's not an excuse for Michigan gaining fewer yards against OSU than any other Buckeye opponent all season, but I need to avoid the fan tendency to assume that my team controls its own fate. Ohio State is strong in every defensive position group, but maybe this shouldn't surprise us since the Bucks had a very good defense in 2006 and then returned nine starters. In retrospect, the "Ohio State is rebuilding" meme from this past summer was complete crap because it assumed that skill position players are the only important players on the field. Ohio State returned almost the entire defense, as well as three starters on the offensive line and an excellent running back. Should we have all thought that the Bucks would collapse simply because they had a new quarterback (and I hesitate to call Boeckman "new" since he's about 37 years old) and new receivers?
Overall, Saturday was an illustration as to why Jim Tressel has asserted control in the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry: his teams are simply better on the lines. Michigan dominated prior to Tressel because Michigan almost always had better quarterbacks; Ohio State has dominated since then because Ohio State has better offensive lines. (Florida fans, please stop laughing uncontrollably. Let he who has not put on 40 pounds before a critical bowl game cast the first stone.) Ohio State had absolutely no passing threat whatsoever on Saturday, as Boeckman was spooked by the weather. Nevertheless, they won comfortably because they dominated Michigan on the line of scrimmage. Bo and Woody would have been proud.
(FYI: I feel bad being so negative on the day that Lloyd retires. For the record, I see Lloyd as a solid B+ coach and I'll have some nice things to say about him when I have a little distance from Saturday.)
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
As they Say in Latin America...
Mea Culpa.
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Ron Powlus will win three Heismans Wrong.
And now, to make myself feel better: Right. Right. Right.
The lessons I take from that review are as follows:
a. I do my worst analysis when Michigan is involved. I was fairly high on Florida for much of the year, save for proclaiming them overrated in August (and even then, I correctly identified the two reasons why I would be wrong - the defensive line and Meyer's record in year twos - so I at least have the insight to know why my predictions are going to end up embarrassing me). I stuck up for their strength of schedule and noted that their offense was pretty good when I did the yards per play analysis. Then, as soon as USC lost and I got visions of Glendale and a dancing Fox Optimus Prime with a block "M" on its chest jangling in my noggin, I lost my mind and did what most lawyers do: marshall every possible argument against the opponent. So feel free to completely disregard me in the future when Michigan is at all implicated by what I'm saying.
b. I can never go wrong ripping on Tommy Tuberville. How's that "no SEC team can make the national title game with our schedules" mantra working these days?
Other thoughts on the game last night:
1. As much as I want to beat myself up for deviating from one of my core beliefs - the SEC is very good and its teams and players don't get the attention they deserve - I'm not going to get too upset because the Florida team we all saw last night was a distant cousin of the Florida team from the second half of the season. Who could have rationally thought that the team that was outgained by Vandy, that barely survived at home with a healthy dose of luck against South Carolina, that limped past a struggling Georgia team, and that was tied with 6-5 Florida State in the fourth quarter would also be the team to hold Ohio State to 80 yards and seven offensive points? Florida played their best game since at least the 1/2/02 Orange Bowl against Maryland. For that, Urban Meyer and the team deserves full credit for raising their game, but let's not pretend that we had any inkling that this was coming.
2. Last night's game was also evidence that we ought not overrate the importance of a blow-out in a championship game. History is replete with teams that completely lost the plot in Super Bowls and national title games. The Bills of the 90s were never as bad as they looked in the Super Bowl. '04 Oklahoma was not 36 points worse than '04 USC. '96 Florida State was not 28 points worse than '96 Florida. '95 Florida was not 38 points worse than '95 Nebraska. '92 Miami was not 21 points worse than '92 Alabama. There is an observable phenomenon that teams: (a) get stale after long lay-offs; and/or (b) freak out when they fall behind on the biggest stage and have total meltdowns. Florida was outstanding last night and they are clearly a better team than Ohio State, but they aren't 27 points better and there's no way that Ohio State's offense is really that bad. This point incidentally doesn't so much have impact for the game last night as it does for historical discussions where a certain team's merit consists mainly of running up a huge score in a championship game.
3. Last night's result has to be the equivalent for Florida fans of what the Braves hypothetically winning a pivotal World Series game against the Yankees in large part because of a game-tying three-run homer off the Yankee closer would have for me: a cleansing of history. A re-writing of the most painful episode. For years, Florida fans no doubt remembered the Fiesta Bowl against Nebraska as the darkest night of their sports lives. Now, whenever they remember it, it will trigger memories of a complete reversal: a dominant performance over a favored foe wearing red in the desert. The fact that Florida won the game in large part because of an unstoppable pass rush and ended the game downing the ball inside the Ohio State ten, just as Nebraska did to them 11 years ago just adds to the Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind effect.
4. I generally think that the "Big Ten = Slow; SEC = Fast" argument is in lieu of actual analysis. It absolves the advocate of actually figuring out what went right or wrong in a given game. For example, I don't think that Ohio State lost the game because they're slow on defense. If they were slow, then they wouldn't have defended Texas so well over the past two years. I do think that they (and Michigan) have excessively conservative defensive approaches and that was evident in both bowl games. Time and time again, SEC defenses showed that the way to limit Chris Leak was to pressure him relentlessly and force him into bad mechanics. There's a reason why Florida's offense produced such meager output in SEC games. (Incidentally, this is why you-know-who will be completely wrong when he inevitably claims that Florida won the national title because of their OMG newfangled scheme that left mouth-breathing SEC coaches in the dust. That and the fact that anyone with a pulse might note that Florida won because their defensive line was completely unblockable and scheme is irrelevant when you get whipped up front.) So how did Ohio State try to defend Florida's offense? With a three-man line and no blitzes. If you let Chris Leak sit in the pocket, he will murder you because he's accurate and his receivers will get open. This is true with most quality quarterbacks. Against Texas and the undercarriage of the Big Ten, Ohio State could sit back because the opposing quarterbacks weren't very good and the Bucks could get pressure with four. Against Florida, Ohio State couldn't get pressure with a three- or four-man rush and they allowed Leak to kill them.
5. The one thing that Jim Tressel got right last night was the decision to go for 4th and one from his own 29. Naturally, Anthony Davis (Unconventional! Does not compute!) didn't like the decision and kept referring to it even after it "led" to three points in a 27-point rout, but Ohio State needed to move the ball and their defense wasn't having much success stopping Florida. Given that context, the 75% chance of success was worth 30 yards of field position. The problem was a totally predictable call - run off-tackle from a two-TE, two-back set - and the fact that Florida was abusing Ohio State up front. With a mobile, senior quarterback and a spread offense, Ohio State should have had multiple receivers on the field to force Florida to delcare its intentions before the play and then let Troy Smith decide whether to run or pass. Hindsight is 20/20, but my thought at the time was that Tressel's risk-reward analysis was right and his playcall was wrong as soon as I saw the formation.
6. Last night got me to thinking that the SEC has a pretty damned good record in national title bowl games. Here's what I came up with, starting with 1980 because that's when I started watching football:
2006 - Florida over Ohio State
2003 - LSU over Oklahoma
1998 - Tennessee over Florida State
1996 - Florida over Florida State
1995 - Nebraska over Florida
1992 - Alabama over Miami
1982 - Penn State over Georgia
1980 - Georgia over Notre Dame
I also did the math for the Pac Ten in my head and they have had similar success:
2005 - Texas over USC
2004 - USC over Oklahoma
2003 - USC over Michigan
2001 - Oregon over Colorado (keep in mind that the winner of that game would probably win the AP vote if Nebraska had beaten Miami in the Rose Bowl)
1991 - Washington over Michigan
1984 - Washington over Oklahoma
Based on an admittedly small sample size, there's an argument to be made that the two conferences that feel most ignored by the media have a point that when their teams survive their relatively balanced conference schedules and make it to national title games, they do very well, as opposed to the teams from the top-heavy conferences like the Big Eight/XII and Big Ten.
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Ron Powlus will win three Heismans Wrong.
And now, to make myself feel better: Right. Right. Right.
The lessons I take from that review are as follows:
a. I do my worst analysis when Michigan is involved. I was fairly high on Florida for much of the year, save for proclaiming them overrated in August (and even then, I correctly identified the two reasons why I would be wrong - the defensive line and Meyer's record in year twos - so I at least have the insight to know why my predictions are going to end up embarrassing me). I stuck up for their strength of schedule and noted that their offense was pretty good when I did the yards per play analysis. Then, as soon as USC lost and I got visions of Glendale and a dancing Fox Optimus Prime with a block "M" on its chest jangling in my noggin, I lost my mind and did what most lawyers do: marshall every possible argument against the opponent. So feel free to completely disregard me in the future when Michigan is at all implicated by what I'm saying.
b. I can never go wrong ripping on Tommy Tuberville. How's that "no SEC team can make the national title game with our schedules" mantra working these days?
Other thoughts on the game last night:
1. As much as I want to beat myself up for deviating from one of my core beliefs - the SEC is very good and its teams and players don't get the attention they deserve - I'm not going to get too upset because the Florida team we all saw last night was a distant cousin of the Florida team from the second half of the season. Who could have rationally thought that the team that was outgained by Vandy, that barely survived at home with a healthy dose of luck against South Carolina, that limped past a struggling Georgia team, and that was tied with 6-5 Florida State in the fourth quarter would also be the team to hold Ohio State to 80 yards and seven offensive points? Florida played their best game since at least the 1/2/02 Orange Bowl against Maryland. For that, Urban Meyer and the team deserves full credit for raising their game, but let's not pretend that we had any inkling that this was coming.
2. Last night's game was also evidence that we ought not overrate the importance of a blow-out in a championship game. History is replete with teams that completely lost the plot in Super Bowls and national title games. The Bills of the 90s were never as bad as they looked in the Super Bowl. '04 Oklahoma was not 36 points worse than '04 USC. '96 Florida State was not 28 points worse than '96 Florida. '95 Florida was not 38 points worse than '95 Nebraska. '92 Miami was not 21 points worse than '92 Alabama. There is an observable phenomenon that teams: (a) get stale after long lay-offs; and/or (b) freak out when they fall behind on the biggest stage and have total meltdowns. Florida was outstanding last night and they are clearly a better team than Ohio State, but they aren't 27 points better and there's no way that Ohio State's offense is really that bad. This point incidentally doesn't so much have impact for the game last night as it does for historical discussions where a certain team's merit consists mainly of running up a huge score in a championship game.
3. Last night's result has to be the equivalent for Florida fans of what the Braves hypothetically winning a pivotal World Series game against the Yankees in large part because of a game-tying three-run homer off the Yankee closer would have for me: a cleansing of history. A re-writing of the most painful episode. For years, Florida fans no doubt remembered the Fiesta Bowl against Nebraska as the darkest night of their sports lives. Now, whenever they remember it, it will trigger memories of a complete reversal: a dominant performance over a favored foe wearing red in the desert. The fact that Florida won the game in large part because of an unstoppable pass rush and ended the game downing the ball inside the Ohio State ten, just as Nebraska did to them 11 years ago just adds to the Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind effect.
4. I generally think that the "Big Ten = Slow; SEC = Fast" argument is in lieu of actual analysis. It absolves the advocate of actually figuring out what went right or wrong in a given game. For example, I don't think that Ohio State lost the game because they're slow on defense. If they were slow, then they wouldn't have defended Texas so well over the past two years. I do think that they (and Michigan) have excessively conservative defensive approaches and that was evident in both bowl games. Time and time again, SEC defenses showed that the way to limit Chris Leak was to pressure him relentlessly and force him into bad mechanics. There's a reason why Florida's offense produced such meager output in SEC games. (Incidentally, this is why you-know-who will be completely wrong when he inevitably claims that Florida won the national title because of their OMG newfangled scheme that left mouth-breathing SEC coaches in the dust. That and the fact that anyone with a pulse might note that Florida won because their defensive line was completely unblockable and scheme is irrelevant when you get whipped up front.) So how did Ohio State try to defend Florida's offense? With a three-man line and no blitzes. If you let Chris Leak sit in the pocket, he will murder you because he's accurate and his receivers will get open. This is true with most quality quarterbacks. Against Texas and the undercarriage of the Big Ten, Ohio State could sit back because the opposing quarterbacks weren't very good and the Bucks could get pressure with four. Against Florida, Ohio State couldn't get pressure with a three- or four-man rush and they allowed Leak to kill them.
5. The one thing that Jim Tressel got right last night was the decision to go for 4th and one from his own 29. Naturally, Anthony Davis (Unconventional! Does not compute!) didn't like the decision and kept referring to it even after it "led" to three points in a 27-point rout, but Ohio State needed to move the ball and their defense wasn't having much success stopping Florida. Given that context, the 75% chance of success was worth 30 yards of field position. The problem was a totally predictable call - run off-tackle from a two-TE, two-back set - and the fact that Florida was abusing Ohio State up front. With a mobile, senior quarterback and a spread offense, Ohio State should have had multiple receivers on the field to force Florida to delcare its intentions before the play and then let Troy Smith decide whether to run or pass. Hindsight is 20/20, but my thought at the time was that Tressel's risk-reward analysis was right and his playcall was wrong as soon as I saw the formation.
6. Last night got me to thinking that the SEC has a pretty damned good record in national title bowl games. Here's what I came up with, starting with 1980 because that's when I started watching football:
2006 - Florida over Ohio State
2003 - LSU over Oklahoma
1998 - Tennessee over Florida State
1996 - Florida over Florida State
1995 - Nebraska over Florida
1992 - Alabama over Miami
1982 - Penn State over Georgia
1980 - Georgia over Notre Dame
I also did the math for the Pac Ten in my head and they have had similar success:
2005 - Texas over USC
2004 - USC over Oklahoma
2003 - USC over Michigan
2001 - Oregon over Colorado (keep in mind that the winner of that game would probably win the AP vote if Nebraska had beaten Miami in the Rose Bowl)
1991 - Washington over Michigan
1984 - Washington over Oklahoma
Based on an admittedly small sample size, there's an argument to be made that the two conferences that feel most ignored by the media have a point that when their teams survive their relatively balanced conference schedules and make it to national title games, they do very well, as opposed to the teams from the top-heavy conferences like the Big Eight/XII and Big Ten.
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