Barca Strikes Back

With apologies to Lawrence Kasdan, here are five thoughts on Clasico Nos. five and six of 2011:

1. There is a great disturbance in the force.  Real Madrid went toe-to-toe with Barca for 180 minutes, outplaying the Blaugrana for long stretches of time, including at the Camp Nou.  The occasions where opponents have truly taken it to Guardiola’s Barca have been few and far between over the past three years: Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in ‘09, Arsenal in late game situations at the Emirates in ‘10 and ‘11, Inter for stretches at the San Siro in ‘10, and Real for the first half of the Copa del Rey Final at Mestalla in ‘11.  No team has been able to trade punches in Catalunya, but Jose Mourinho now has that team.  It’s not that he made any huge changes in terms of the personnel.  The starting XI for the first leg on Sunday was the exact same as the unit that got drilled 5-0 last November and he made only one change for the second leg, inserting Fabio Coentrao for Marcelo.  However, his team seem to have a better understanding of Mourinho’s favored tactics, they are in terrific shape after a productive preseason,* and they now have the confidence to press Barca high up the pitch.  Gone are Mourinho’s tactics of stuffing his players with defensive instructions and hoping to nick a 0-0 or 1-0 against the run of play.  He has a team that is almost equal to Barca.  I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this Real side win either La Liga or the Champions League.  On the evidence of the Copa del Rey matches, these are the two best teams in the world and by some distance.

* – The one counter: Barca did not have a good preseason.  They lost preparation time by touring the hot, humid Southern US, they had several players out because of the Copa America, and their two big signings arrived late.  If Real were ever going to beat Barca, this was the time and they missed the chance.  Also, the ever-gracious Mourinho referred to the Supercup as a “tiny little title,” so who knows if he will retain his new-found balls when the team meet again with more significant silverware on the line.

2. You’ll find I’m full of surprises.  Dani Alves has the reputation as an attacking right back who is a defensive liability.  He may have had a disappointing Copa America, but he was outstanding in both legs of the Supercup, mainly defensively.  He was able to blunt Cristiano Ronaldo’s bursts forward repeatedly and he didn’t let the sprinter-fast Ronaldo beat him for pace.  I’m not sure of Alves has improved defensively or if he has always been this good but was always too far forward to tackle.  Regardless, he showed that he’s not just a defender in name.

3. Control, control, you must learn control!  Too bad about Real, they showed so much promise as an attacking, pressing force that play the right way and then they slowly degenerated into a collection of dirty f***s by the end of the match.  Actually, that’s a little unfair.  Pepe and Marcelo were dirty f***s,  getting away with an assortment of kicks and elbows that clearly had no purpose other than to inflict injury.  How amusing that Mourinho believes that there is a conspiracy in favor of Barca and yet his players repeatedly dare refs to send them off.  And speaking of Jose, he was just a bundle of class in the melee that resulted from Marcelo trying to end Cesc’s Spanish career after 10 minutes:

 

You can see the source for Pepe’s and Marcelo’s ideas.

4. There is another.

So that’s what it’s like to have an impact sub.  Barca’s two signings this summer – Cesc Fabregas and Alexis Sanchez – are both technically surplus to requirements.  The club’s front five did not need improvement.  That said, they do need depth and tonight’s match showed why.  With Xavi looking a little off his game, Barca’s pace picked up immediately when Cesc came on and they closed strongly.  Barca have faded at times over the past two years, most notably twice at the Emirates.  Now, their import from North London (along with the new winger from Friuli) makes that a less likely prospect.  

5. Size matters not. Look at me. Judge me by my size, do you?  Barca won another trophy despite Real’s impressive, high-tempo performance because the Blaugrana have the best player in the world, full stop.  I don’t like simple explanations, but sometimes, there is no need to say anything more.  Barca won 5-4 on aggregate with Messi scoring three and assisting on the other two.  Moreover, the quality of the goals was outstanding.  His goal at the Bernabeu was a ping pong effort where he bounced off of Sami Khedira and Pepe before finishing.  Tonight, his opener was a ludicrous chest-pass off a corner to Gerard Pique, who then back-heeled the ball back to Messi, with the little Argentine then finishing after a dribble.  (Honestly, how many goals have ever come from the following sequence: corner, chest pass, back-heel, dribble, shot?)  Finally, Messi won the trophy with three minutes remaining by receiving a pass from Cesc, picking out Adriano (who is quite a useful little engine down the flanks) and then darting to the net to slam home Adriano’s return cross (a goal that was very similar to Messi’s opener against Real in the Champions League first leg).

Additionally, the opening 15 minutes showed the difference between Messi and Ronaldo.  Within three minutes, Ronaldo had already fired three shots on goal, missing twice.  12 minutes later, Messi got loose and delivered a defense-splitting ball to Iniesta for the opener.  One player shoots from everywhere; the other both scores goals and constantly creates chances for his teammates.  Switch those two players and Real are the team of the moment.

Cesc Bomb

Unless numerous media reports are all wrong (and thankfully, the media reports are not just coming from the Barcelona-based sports dailies that have pages and pages to fill every day), the long-running Cesc-to-Barca odyssey is finally about to reach Ithaca.  The final price: €29M up front, €6M in performance bonuses (the remaining negotiations are supposedly about the terms of those bonuses), and €5M from Cesc himself.  That’s the real kicker in the whole situation.  Arsene Wenger has so mismanaged his Arsenal project over the past several years that his star captain is willing to pay €5M out of his own pocket to make a transfer happen.  Arsenal has sold players before, but usually, they have taken Barcelona to the cleaners for players who were at the tail-end of their useful years (Emmanuel Petit, Marc Overmars, and Thierry Henry) or just weren’t very good to begin with (Alexander Hleb).  This time, Arsenal are selling their captain at the start of his prime years and they are doing so for less than their valuation.*

* – Arsenal fans have pointed to a number of the ludicrous sums paid for various players - usually by Manchester City and Liverpool – and made arguments like “if Andy Carroll is worth £35M, then Cesc is worth a billion!”  The problem with this argument was that City don’t set the market prices because they have to pay over the moon for players as a result of being an ascendant side rather than an established preferred destination for top players.  Liverpool is paying through the nose because of a fetish for British.  The rumors regarding Wesley Sneijder heading to Manchester United for £36m were telling.  Sneijder is older than Cesc, but he was also on the verge of being the FIFA Player of the Year.  He has performed at a higher level than Fabregas.  Moreover, Inter can sell Sneijder to the highest bidder, whereas Cesc wants to go to one club and one club only.  If he’s worth £36m, then Arsenal’s dreams of getting £50m for Cesc were dead.

ArseBlog takes stock of the implications for Arsenal:

It’s not just us, of course, there’s Barcelona, there’s Cesc’s desire to go there, but I look at this sorry mess and it’s hard to think we’ve dealt with it as well as we should have. On every level. From this summer, to the way we’ve failed to invest properly in our team which has resulted in two of best players wanting out, and doubts over others not too far in the distance. Robin van Persie and Theo Walcott will reach next summer and only have one year left on their contracts. I would suggest that right now there’s little chance of them signing new deals.

The players we have – with the exception of one or two – clearly aren’t stupid and they’ll be looking closely at what’s going on. It was Arsene Wenger himself who said that you cannot be considered a big club if you sell your best players. Well, we’re about to sell one of them – and maybe Nasri too (although I think the Frenchman could stay simply because AW won’t let both him and Cesc go) – and from a purely footballing point of view it’s not good for Arsenal.

Wenger has let his pride get in the way of clear thinking.  His best player has wanted to leave since last summer.  Wenger fought and fought to keep him, but in the end, he is having to sell him for less than Arsenal’s valuation.  More importantly, Arsenal are going to make the sale with only three weeks left in the transfer window, which means they are going to have to scramble to bring in the sort of replacements who will convince the next crop of potential free agents that they should stay in North London.  The irony of the whole situation is that Wenger, a trained economist, is almost certainly one of the smartest, most rational thinkers in club football, but he has made mistakes over the past several years that seem to be borne out of stubbornness and commitment to an ideology.

As for Barcelona, the club have managed to sign their two summer targets – Cesc and Alexis Sanchez – while staying within their stated transfer budget of €45M.  They will end up paying €55M up front for Cesc and Sanchez* and with the sales of Bojan, Jeffren, and Oriol Romeu bringing back about €20M, the total summer spend comes in below budget.  This is the advantage of Barca being on top of the world right now while also having much-publicized debt issues: players want to play for the club and other teams know that they can’t take the club to the cleaners.  Barca have added quality depth in the midfield and attack.  They will now be insured against the event that would have derailed their past three seasons: a major injury to Xavi or Messi. 

There are two questions now for the club.  First, how is Pep Guardiola going to dole out playing time?  This has always been a strength of Jose Mourinho – keeping all members of a deep squad happy – and now Pep is going to have to show the same ability.  He now has three established stars – Xavi, Iniesta, and Cesc – and a burgeoning prospect in need of playing time – Thiago - for two spots in the midfield.  Normally, a manager could rely on using a substitution to keep the players happy, but Pep usually uses Seydou Keita as the late sub for the last 15 minutes to kill off games, so this isn’t really an option.**  Iniesta can play at left forward, so it is possible to put three on the pitch at once, but that only creates a logjam in the forward line where Barca now have four established players for three spots.  The interesting question is how this new depth fits in with the Cruyff thesis that teams usually have a four-year cycle.  Will Cesc and Sanchez prolong the cycle by creating competition for spots and thereby ensuring that the incumbents don’t get stale?  Are they replacements in the event that one or more of the incumbents get tired of their current situation?  Are they likely to cause strife that will speed the end of the cycle?  Time will tell. 

* - This does not account for the €17M in performance-based incentives that Barca is likely to pay if the players perform and the team stays close to its current level of success; those funds should be applied against future transfer budgets.

** – This assumes that Barca is leading at the end of a match.  Over the past several seasons, this has been a safe assumption.

The second question is whether Barca has enough cover defensively.  Right now, the club have only two established center backs: Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique.  There are a number of players at other positions who can cover in the spot.  When Puyol was hurt last year, Eric Abidal, Javier Mascherano, and Sergi Busquets all played the position with Mascherano emerging as the preferred option late in the season.  Is Pep comfortable going into the season with his current depth chart?  Is he planning on relying on youth team product Andreu Fontas for depth?  I suspect that the answer to both questions is "yes, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if a top center back (Thiago Silva?) isn’t the major transfer target next summer.

Cesc and Thiago

I was going to write a post examining Barcelona’s pursuit of Cesc Fabregas in light of the emergence of Thiago Alcantara, but this piece on the Spanish Football site does my work for me.  Here is the argument in a nutshell:

Xavi is 31, Iniesta is 27, Fàbregas is 24 and Thiago is 20. Fàbregas would fill the 11 year gap between Xavi and Thiago and the 7 year gap between Iniesta and Thiago.

It would help Thiago to keep improving without the pressure of having to replace the two most important midfielders in Barça’s and Spain’s history. Fàbregas, being the more experienced player of the two, would share that responsibility with him.

Thiago has had a great summer.  He was one of the stars on the Spain side that won the European U-21 tournament, scoring a clever goal in the final against Switzerland.  This week, he added an award as the best player at the Audi Cup after scoring once in the semifinal against Internacional and both goals in the final against Bayern Munich.  His performances could lead to the conclusion that Cesc is unnecessary, but as Miguel points out, throwing Thiago into the mix at age 20 in place of either Xavi or Iniesta would be to pile enormous pressure on a prospect.  If Cesc arrives, then he serves as the buffer so Thiago can be put into the first team gradually.  Given that Barca are likely to play something in the neighborhood of 60 games this year, there are plenty of potential minutes for four central midfielders.

My first impulse after Thiago’s performance yesterday in Munich was to think “great, this will drive down Arsenal’s price for Cesc because it is clear that Barca doesn’t really need him.”  I quickly changed my mind when I remembered that Arsenal have no great need or desire to sell Cesc.  If this were a normal transaction with a buyer and a seller, then the buyer learning that he doesn’t really need to product would tend to drop this price.  This, however, is not a normal transaction because the seller doesn’t want to sell, but will do so reluctantly if its (possibly inflated) valuation of the (dissatisfied, wanting to move) product is met.  If Barca decides that they don’t need Cesc, then Arsenal’s likely response will be “great, we’ll keep our captain” instead of “hey, let me knock £5M off the price.”  

Unintentional Honesty from Arsene Wenger

For those of you who don't check The Guardian or Goal.com on a daily basis, the big story of the transfer market has been the "will he or won't he" saga concerning Cesc Fabregas. Fabregas is a product of the Barcelona youth system. He was buddies with Leo Messi and Gerard Pique when they came up at La Masia. He is a paid member of the club. His family started taking him to games at the Camp Nou when he was tiny. Arsenal signed him at age 16 by taking advantage of the fact that English clubs are not subject to the EU law that forbids people under the age of 17 from signing employment contracts. At Arsenal, Cesc has turned into one of the best midfielders in the world.

Prior to the World Cup, Cesc met with Arsene Wenger and almost certainly told him that he wanted a transfer to Barcelona. Cesc then went off to play for Spain and won the World Cup in a side dominated by Barcelona players. Before and after the World Cup, Barca players popped off in the press (in an increasingly unseemly fashion) about how Arsenal should sell Cesc to Barca. This campaign culminated in Pique and Carles Puyol putting a Barca jersey on Cesc at the team's post-tournament celebration in Madrid.

In the end, the transfer has not gone through and Cesc remains at Arsenal. There are a variety of potential explanations. One is that Arsenal value Cesc more than Barca do (and more than he would be worth on the open market). Barca have a bevy of top players; Arsenal are totally dependent on Cesc. A second is that Barca might have overestimated their ability to get a good price for Cesc based on the fact that the market for Cesc is a closed market. In theory, if Cesc will only go to one club, then Arsenal can't command full market value, but it hasn't played out that way. A third is that Cesc is an exemplary professional, a guy who wants to leave, but didn't make his feelings known by handing in a transfer request or mouthing off in the papers. (Too bad he's not Adebayor.) A fourth is that Barca might not have the money to sign him. The incoming club president, Sandro Rosell, has claimed that the club has a massive debt problem. (The debt issue is overblown by Rosell for political reasons. Rosell hates outgoing president Joan Laporta and he knows that he cannot criticize the results on the field in the Laporta era, so he has to rip apart the club's books.) A fifth is that Wenger and Cesc might have reached a Ferguson-Ronaldo compromise that Cesc will give Arsenal one more year and then they will let him go at a reasonable price.

In any event, I thought about the saga this morning when reading Arsene Wenger's comments on the EPL's new squad rules:

In my opinion – and it's not [the Premier League's] opinion – if you are a great player, you want to play with great players. If you are a great musician, you want to play in an orchestra with the best musicians. If you offer the guy the chance to play in an orchestra with poor musicians, he will not be happy.

I couldn't have said it better myself. Cesc can stay at a club that has sat on its hands and not addressed crying needs at goalkeeper and in central defense or he can play with the teammates with whom he has won the European Championship and the World Cup. (Note: Arsenal do have until the end of the month to right this failing.) He can play with Diaby and Denilson or Xavi and Iniesta. Which orchestra has the best musicians, Arsene?

Incidentally, I totally agree with Wenger's comments about the EPL's new squad rules. The league will be hurt by the imposition of a quota of domestic players. As long as England isn't producing top players, then the problem will lie with the development system. The squad rules will simply force clubs to deploy players who are not the most deserving. Wenger's comments are self-serving (Arsenal have relatively few English players, mainly because Wenger smartly refuses to pay extra for a nationality) and he's trying to excuse his inactivity in the transfer market by saying that the new rules have tightened the market. Nevertheless, he's absolutely right. It's refreshing to read the comments of a trained economist as opposed to the ususal "we were robbed of a clear penalty" tripe that comes from most EPL managers.