Sunday, December 23, 2012
Friday, January 27, 2012
We Expected Midway and Got Antietam
Strategically, the match was a win for Mourinho and Real Madrid because they preserved their dignity. Here is Sid Lowe's description:
They got knocked out but they got up again. For José Mourinho's Real Madrid, the latest clásico was always likely to be less about the result and more about recovery after a week of intrigue and insult. As Pep Guardiola insisted on the eve of the game, Barcelona had a problem: the assumption was that the Catalans were already in the semi-final. A place in the next round was not really at stake; instead the prize was something less tangible. This morning, it is Barcelona who are through but Madrid emerged from a wonderful 2-2 draw as winners too.In this respect, Wednesday night was a missed opportunity for Barca, a chance to end the war gone. If you like military analogies (and you know I do), this was McClellan allowing the Army of Northern Virginia to escape in the aftermath of Antietam. At halftime, Barca had a 2-0 lead in the match and a 4-1 lead on aggregate. Real's players had to have been dispirited at halftime because they had played well in the first half, but had failed to score because of a combination of poor finishing and excellent shot-stopping by Barca's rapping reserve keeper, Jose Pinto. Barca had the chance to stick the knife in by delivering a humiliation that would have caused a serious crisis for Mourinho, a malaise that might have affected Real's form in La Liga and allowed Barca to winnow down the current five-point deficit. Instead, Real came off the deck in the second half, scoring twice in rapid succession and forcing a very nervy final 20 minutes for the Catalans.
Suddenly, unexpected, deservedly, a semi-final slot had been within Madrid's reach. In the end they could not grab it but they did grab a lifeline. Madrid never expected to progress in the cup but the progression was evident. Mourinho's side have now faced Barcelona 10 times and won just once. The run was extended but it felt like it had been ended. Mourinho underlined the comment going round the away dressing room: "it's impossible to win here." Yet the lasting impression was the exact opposite: it no longer looks impossible to win here. Barely 24 hours earlier, it did.
All that said, there are two caveats to the conclusion that Wednesday was an affirming match for Mourinho and Real. First, Real came out of the Spanish Supercup in August with a similar feeling. In that instance, they had gone at Barca hard for 180 minutes, choosing to employ an aggressive, attacking approach instead of parking the bus. Barca won the tie 5-4 on aggregate, but Real had seemingly showed that they were now on par with Barca, such that they would no longer need to employ the tactics of inferior teams. That affirmation didn't last, as Real lost the next two matches against Barca, both at the Bernabeu. Second, Real's players have cause to wonder about Mourinho's tactics. If Real can truly play with Barca, as they showed in the second leg, then why did Mourinho take such a defensive approach - marked by Pepe in midfield - in the first leg? Couldn't Real have come to the Nou Camp without having to win on the road if their style would have been better in the first leg? Also, Real played much better with Karim Benzema up front as opposed to Gonzalo Higuain. Benzema is establishing quite a record for scoring against Barca, so why was he not on the pitch from the start? Again, would Real have been in a better position than down 4-1 if Benzema had been a starter?
The two clubs will now take a break from one another for at least two months (the earliest that they can play would be the Champions League quarterfinals, which kick off two months from today). Real have been the better side this season against everyone else, so we'll see if that continues.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Mourinho's Fleet Arrives at Midway
Mourinho's failure to beat Barca is now starting to become an issue. Real Madrid is a massive institution, even by the standards of European mega-clubs. It has a complicated political structure involving various executives and sometimes players (read: Raul) that often illustrates the saying "too many chefs spoil the broth." For years, the manager was set up as a fall guy. He didn't decide the style, he didn't have control over signings, and if anything went wrong, he would be the scapegoat for the failings of others. The experience of Vicente Del Bosque at the Bernabeu is Exhibit A:
In his four seasons in charge Del Bosque ushered the club through its most successful spell in modern history, having steered the club to two UEFA Champions League titles in 2000 and 2002, two domestic La Liga titles in 2001 and 2003, a Spanish Supercup in 2001, a UEFA Super Cup in 2002, the Intercontinental Cup in 2002 as well as finishing in the last four of the UEFA Champions League every year he was in charge. Not since the great Madrid side of the 1950s and 1960s that had Alfredo Di Stéfano and Ferenc Puskás did the club succeed so consistently. Del Bosque was famed for his humble, patient and unassuming style which saw him manage the club as it underwent a policy during Florentino Pérez's tenure as club President that was known as 'Los Galacticos'- where the world's best and most marketable stars were signed for the club beginning with Luís Figo, and including Zinedine Zidane and Ronaldo. Del Bosque's management was successful in uniting the many different modern player egos in his star studded team: in the Del Bosque era Real managed 104 wins out of a possible 186 in his time as coach of Madrid. Despite the level of success, many players – in particular the so-called 'Galacticos' – were bought without the input of Del Bosque amid often made allegations that the Real Madrid hierarchy (in particular Pérez and general manager Jorge Valdano) had more control over transfer policy, team selection and other aspects of club that minimalised the level of control Del Bosque had during his time as manager.
Shockingly, Real Madrid decided not to renew Del Bosque's contract in 2003, just a day after he won the club its 29th League title and a week after the club signed David Beckham. Del Bosque was offered the post of technical director but turned it down, leading to many suggestions in the Spanish media that there was indeed a much rumoured political split at the club involving Del Bosque and several players, especially captain Fernando Hierro (who was asked to leave the club in the summer of 2003), on one side, while Jorge Valdano and Florentino Pérez wielded the axe of control to in their words, 'shake up the team', on the other. Pérez said in an interview with BBC Sport: "Del Bosque was showing signs of exhaustion. I want to be sincere about this – our belief that he was not the right coach for the future."Del Bosque then added the World Cup to his personal trophy room in 2010. Depending on Barca's trophy haul this year, his list of accomplishments is not that far removed from that of Pep Guardiola's four years in charge in Barcelona. Guardiola is untouchable; Del Bosque got the boot because winning La Liga and losing in the last four of the Champions League (in a close, enthralling tie with Juventus) was just not enough. Moreover, the guy who made the decision to axe Del Bosque - Florentino Perez - also happens to be the current president of the club.
One of the issues that makes Real a snakepit for a manager is the local media. Madrid has two sports dailies - Marca and AS - that provide exhaustive coverage of the club. Marca has especially close ties to Real, such that its campaign against Manuel Pellegrini during the first year of the new Galactico era in 2009-10 was thought to be encouraged (or at least tacitly permitted) by upper management at the Bernabeu. So, when Marca prints an exchange between Mourinho and Sergio Ramos verbatim, this is not a good sign for Mourinho. Here is Sid Lowe's description of the Marca story:
Marca's cover showed Mourinho and Sergio Ramos face to face. Word for word, they reproduced a conversation between the two men, and Iker Casillas, at Real Madrid's Valdebebas training ground on Friday morning – two days after Madrid, playing ultra-defensively, had again been beaten by Barcelona; two days after Ramos had noted: "We follow the coach's tactics. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't." According to Marca, the conversation started with Mourinho turning towards Ramos and saying: "You [plural] killed me in the mixed zone." To which Ramos replied: "No, mister [the Spanish term for a coach], you only read what it says in the papers not everything we said."
Mourinho replied: "Sure, because you Spaniards have been world champions and your friends in the media protect you … and because the goalkeeper …" At that point there is a shout from Casillas, training 30 metres away: "Eh, mister, round here you say things to our faces, eh!"
Another part of the conversation starts with Mourinho saying: "Where were you on the first goal [against Barcelona], Sergio?"
"Marking Piqué"
"Well, you should have been marking Puyol."
"Yes, but they were blocking us off [using basketball style screens] with Piqué and we decided to change the marking."
"What? So now you're playing at being coach?"
"No," replies Ramos, "but depending on the situation in the game, sometimes you have to change the marking. Because you've never been a player, you don't know that that sometimes happens."This story represents all sorts of issues for Mourinho. First, it illustrates a less-than-content locker room, which cuts against one of Mourinho's noted strengths: his ability to get wealthy, egotistical stars to all pull in the same direction, even if they might not like being on the bench or playing in a defensive style. Second, it hints at cliques based on nationality, hence the "you Spaniards" remark. (The current rumor is that there is a division between the Spanish and Portuguese players in the side.) Third, it hits Mourinho where it hurts, which is that unlike Guardiola, he was not a successful player. (Think Tracy Flick here.) Fourth, the fact that Marca has a source within the team and ran a cover story pulling up Mourinho's kimono implies that Mourinho's political situation is not entirely secure. For someone with a well developed sense of paranoia (Simon Kuper attributes this tendency to Mourinho growing up in a dictatorship), Marca's story is ominous.
Jose's teams generally don't play attractive football, with the match against Barca last week generally and Pepe's behavior specifically being a nadir. If his teams win, then everyone is happy. If they don't win, then there is really nothing to commend Jose at all. Real Madrid are winning, but they are not accomplishing what Mourinho was brought to the Bernabeu to do: conquer Guardiola's Barca. (Mourinho's wins over Barca at Chelsea and Inter were a major credential in hiring him.) Thus, today's match is critical because it comes at an important juncture. If Real can overturn the 2-1 deficit and win at the Nou Camp (a feat that Mourinho has never accomplished, despite three chances at Chelsea, two at Inter, and three so far at Real; he has four losses and four draws), then his reputation as a Barca-killer returns. He will re-establish his credibility with his players and accumulate political capital to deal with management and the media in Madrid. If Real lose, then Jose faces a genuine crisis because the impression will be further cemented that he cannot do what he was brought to Madrid to do. It's one thing to lose to a historically great team; it's another to do it while deploying eight defensive players, including your compatriot - a center back playing midfield - stomping on Messi's hand. It's strange for me as a Cule to say this, but today's match is more about the enemy.
Friday, December 09, 2011
We Meet Again
* - Real and Barca are now almost prohibitive favorites to win the Champions League. The two best contenders from England are out, Bayern Munich have slowed down after a fast start, and Barca recently won on the road against the best side from Serie A. The only question seems to be whether Barca and Real will avoid each other until the final.
For those of you who are already familiar with the game and the players, here are my thoughts of what to watch for in the match:
1. How does Pep line up his forward line? I assume that he is not going to play three at the back, given that Real play one striker (three at the back really makes more sense against two) and Puyol and Pique are both available. I further assume that the midfield will be Busquets, Xavi, and Iniesta. (Busquets gets the nod over Mascherano because the latter has become more of a defender than a midfielder.) So who goes with Messi up top? Alexis Sanchez, who is coming back to health and has played really well over the past week? Pedro, who just came back from an injury spell on Tuesday, but who gives the team more width and has a great record of scoring against Real? Isaac Cuenca, the latest product of La Masia and a player who Guardiola already trusts to be in the right place at the right time? David Villa, the big star who has been struggling and whose confidence might be shattered by starting the match on the bench? My guess is that Pep will go with Villa and Sanchez alongside Messi. The other possibility is Cesc, playing an advanced role along with Messi and then one of the aforementioned forwards switching wings to provide width. Cesc and Messi have developed a great understanding with one another and Cesc brings dimensions that the rest of the team lacks, namely the abilities to: (1) crash the box from the midfield to provide a target for Messi's passes; and (2) shoot from outside of the box with accuracy. If Real play defensively, then Cesc is the countermeasure. Also, with his experience as a midfielder, he can be the one to harass Xabi Alonso - Real's fulcrum - when Los Merengues have the ball.
2. Does Mourinho play a third defensive midfielder? Xabi Alonso and Sami Khedira seem like automatics. Does he then add Lass Diarra to the mix in place of Meszut Ozil, who is slumping like Villa? Is he going to play a pure counter-attacking game or is he going to press? If it's the former, then he plays Diarra. If it's the latter, then he plays Ozil. As is always the case when Mourinho teams play Barca, it will be most interesting to see how aggressive Real are and whether they let Barca have the ball in non-dangerous areas. Real were far more offensive in the Supercup matches in August and they have been scoring goals by the bushel in La Liga, so I am not going to assume that Jose parks the bus.
3. Does Mourinho go with Benzema or Higuain up front? Benzema is the more technically gifted player, but Higuain is the superior counter-attacking weapon. Again, Real's orientation will determine the selection.
4. Who plays right back for Real? Is Alvaro Arbeloa healthy enough? If not, does Diarra go there? Does Sergio Ramos go there, knowing that Real are then shakier in the middle? Does Fabio Coentrao play the spot?
5. Which Brazilian fullback is the bigger defensive liability: Marcelo or Dani Alves? Mourinho usually puts Angel Di Maria opposite Alves because Di Maria is better at tracking back than Ronaldo. In the past, this has meant that Real have been weaker offensively against a potential Barca defensive weakness, but Di Maria is in great form, so they don't have to make a sacrifice this time around.* Barca have given up goals this year when opponents have gotten down the wings and then pulled the ball back to late-arriving attackers. Real will almost certainly look to do this: Ronaldo and Di Maria getting into advanced positions, the striker making a run to occupy the central defenders, and then a midfielder - Alonso or Khedira - arriving late to occupy the space vacated by the central defenders. Conversely, Pep's decision on his front line will be interesting. His right-sided attacker is going to get chances against Marcelo. (The biggest goal of the five Barca-Real matches last season was Messi's opener in the Champions League first leg. That came from Affellay skinning Marcelo and getting in a low cross that Messi knocked home.) Who is that attacker going to be and can that attacker help out defensively when Marcelo gets forward.
* - Invalidating everything I just said, Mourinho had Ronaldo on the left in the Supercup matches and Dani Alves did a great job defending him. The title of this paragraph is a little unfair, as Alves can be underrated as a defensive player.
6. How does the ref call the game? The referee will be under enormous pressure. Barca will want the game called tight, with frequent cards for hard fouls. Real will want license to put in physical tackles. Any decision to send a player off will be analyzed a million times over. Does the ref want to be harangued by the Barca players on the pitch or Mourinho off of it? And will Barca's players and Mourinho behave better after they all did themselves and their teams a disservice by their embarrassing conduct in the first leg of the Champions League tie last year?
Overall, I'll take a 2-2.
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Forced Evolution: Pep Guardiola, Mack Brown, and Urban Meyer
* - One common thread occurred to me while reading the piece. Both the Hungary side of '54 and the Dutch side of '74 lost World Cup Finals to West Germany. The Germans have never been credited with a major tactical innovation like the sides that they conquered. Is that a compliment to German teams for overcoming innovators or a criticism that they win without giving anything to the world game, other than stereotypes about efficiency and determination?
Alexander then gets to his point, which is that Barca have been trying a new 3-4-3 formation this year and that their attempts to take another step in evolving might be the reason why Real Madrid are three points ahead with a game in hand:
Though crowned Champions League winners in 2009 and 2011 Barcelona managed Pep Guardiola has sought to vary Barcelona’s approach this season. On one hand it is understandable that he wants to prevent other sides from figuring out a way to stop his side playing (as Inter Milan famously did in the 2010 Champions League), yet on the other hand one has to wonder whether trying to enforce a change on a fluid and evolving game is ever going to be truly successful.The question of whether there is truly natural pressure is an interesting one. As Alexander notes, Barca lost its European title to Mourinho's Inter in 2010, so Guardiola might have been thinking one step ahead: "if Mourinho is spending all summer trying to figure out how to deal with out style, then maybe I need to change the style?" Additionally, trying a new formation is a good way to keep players sharp and interested, which is no small matter when one is trying to motivate a group that has won everything there is to win, both for club and country. Finally, Guardiola was faced with a dilemma this fall in that both of his starting central defenders - Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique - were injured and he was faced with cobbling together a backline using a left back (Eric Abidal), two defensive midfielders (Sergio Busquets and Javier Mascherano), and a collection of Brazilian attacking fullbacks (Dani Alves, Adriano, and Maxwell). Change or die, right? Well, Barca have dropped nine points away from the Camp Nou in La Liga, they have scored only eight goals in their six road matches, and now they head to the Bernabeu in a must-win position, so maybe change wasn't such a good idea.
The move away from the 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 that had served them so well to an, at times, 3-4-3 (often with no recognised centre-backs) has met with decidedly mixed success. Though there have been victories, it’s difficult to ascertain whether Barcelona won those matches thanks to their new system, or thanks to the extraordinary individual talents they possess...
Given time, perhaps Guardiola’s new way will take root, and set in motion the next stage in the evolution of Barcelona and, by extension, modern football. However, by trying to force change where no natural pressure exists, Pep may have found himself on a dead branch of the evolutionary tree.
Alexander's line about forcing change where no natural pressure exists had me thinking about college football. I remember having a conversation with a friend three years ago about how USC, Texas, and Florida were poised to dominate college football in the coming years. They had the coaches, the systems, the fertile recruiting bases, and the rivals in turmoil to ensure a series of meetings with crystal balls on the line. Leaving USC and their NCAA issues aside, as recently as two years ago, Texas and Florida were both coming off of years where they lost only one game: to national champion Alabama. In the summer of 2010, we read numerous writers opine that both the Horns and Gators were moving away from the spread styles (pass-based for Texas and run-based for Florida) that they had favored in favor of more conventional, power-based attacks. (I remember Tony Barnhart being especially pronounced in making this point, but I cannot for the life of me find a link to verify my memory.)
The results of this forced evolution (maybe devolution is a better term) have been disastrous. Here is Florida's national rank in yards per play from 2008 forward: 3, 2, 78, 67. And here is Texas's: 13, 57, 78, 67. Both Florida and Texas had a style that worked for them and then have gone away from that style, whether by recruiting decisions or scheme. They had evolved into approaches that moved the ball and then chose to eschew those approaches for something new. Two years later, they are both picking up the pieces from those decisions to force change.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Barca Strikes Back
With apologies to Lawrence Kasdan, here are five thoughts on Clasico Nos. five and six of 2011:
1. There is a great disturbance in the force. Real Madrid went toe-to-toe with Barca for 180 minutes, outplaying the Blaugrana for long stretches of time, including at the Camp Nou. The occasions where opponents have truly taken it to Guardiola’s Barca have been few and far between over the past three years: Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in ‘09, Arsenal in late game situations at the Emirates in ‘10 and ‘11, Inter for stretches at the San Siro in ‘10, and Real for the first half of the Copa del Rey Final at Mestalla in ‘11. No team has been able to trade punches in Catalunya, but Jose Mourinho now has that team. It’s not that he made any huge changes in terms of the personnel. The starting XI for the first leg on Sunday was the exact same as the unit that got drilled 5-0 last November and he made only one change for the second leg, inserting Fabio Coentrao for Marcelo. However, his team seem to have a better understanding of Mourinho’s favored tactics, they are in terrific shape after a productive preseason,* and they now have the confidence to press Barca high up the pitch. Gone are Mourinho’s tactics of stuffing his players with defensive instructions and hoping to nick a 0-0 or 1-0 against the run of play. He has a team that is almost equal to Barca. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this Real side win either La Liga or the Champions League. On the evidence of the Copa del Rey matches, these are the two best teams in the world and by some distance.
* – The one counter: Barca did not have a good preseason. They lost preparation time by touring the hot, humid Southern US, they had several players out because of the Copa America, and their two big signings arrived late. If Real were ever going to beat Barca, this was the time and they missed the chance. Also, the ever-gracious Mourinho referred to the Supercup as a “tiny little title,” so who knows if he will retain his new-found balls when the team meet again with more significant silverware on the line.
2. You’ll find I’m full of surprises. Dani Alves has the reputation as an attacking right back who is a defensive liability. He may have had a disappointing Copa America, but he was outstanding in both legs of the Supercup, mainly defensively. He was able to blunt Cristiano Ronaldo’s bursts forward repeatedly and he didn’t let the sprinter-fast Ronaldo beat him for pace. I’m not sure of Alves has improved defensively or if he has always been this good but was always too far forward to tackle. Regardless, he showed that he’s not just a defender in name.
3. Control, control, you must learn control! Too bad about Real, they showed so much promise as an attacking, pressing force that play the right way and then they slowly degenerated into a collection of dirty f***s by the end of the match. Actually, that’s a little unfair. Pepe and Marcelo were dirty f***s, getting away with an assortment of kicks and elbows that clearly had no purpose other than to inflict injury. How amusing that Mourinho believes that there is a conspiracy in favor of Barca and yet his players repeatedly dare refs to send them off. And speaking of Jose, he was just a bundle of class in the melee that resulted from Marcelo trying to end Cesc’s Spanish career after 10 minutes:
You can see the source for Pepe’s and Marcelo’s ideas.
4. There is another.
So that’s what it’s like to have an impact sub. Barca’s two signings this summer – Cesc Fabregas and Alexis Sanchez – are both technically surplus to requirements. The club’s front five did not need improvement. That said, they do need depth and tonight’s match showed why. With Xavi looking a little off his game, Barca’s pace picked up immediately when Cesc came on and they closed strongly. Barca have faded at times over the past two years, most notably twice at the Emirates. Now, their import from North London (along with the new winger from Friuli) makes that a less likely prospect.
5. Size matters not. Look at me. Judge me by my size, do you? Barca won another trophy despite Real’s impressive, high-tempo performance because the Blaugrana have the best player in the world, full stop. I don’t like simple explanations, but sometimes, there is no need to say anything more. Barca won 5-4 on aggregate with Messi scoring three and assisting on the other two. Moreover, the quality of the goals was outstanding. His goal at the Bernabeu was a ping pong effort where he bounced off of Sami Khedira and Pepe before finishing. Tonight, his opener was a ludicrous chest-pass off a corner to Gerard Pique, who then back-heeled the ball back to Messi, with the little Argentine then finishing after a dribble. (Honestly, how many goals have ever come from the following sequence: corner, chest pass, back-heel, dribble, shot?) Finally, Messi won the trophy with three minutes remaining by receiving a pass from Cesc, picking out Adriano (who is quite a useful little engine down the flanks) and then darting to the net to slam home Adriano’s return cross (a goal that was very similar to Messi’s opener against Real in the Champions League first leg).
Additionally, the opening 15 minutes showed the difference between Messi and Ronaldo. Within three minutes, Ronaldo had already fired three shots on goal, missing twice. 12 minutes later, Messi got loose and delivered a defense-splitting ball to Iniesta for the opener. One player shoots from everywhere; the other both scores goals and constantly creates chances for his teammates. Switch those two players and Real are the team of the moment.