Friday, January 27, 2006

Piling on the Gang of Six

Everyone needs their pinatas. Dan Shaughnessy has Theo Epstein. Dick Vitale has his imaginary Duke critics. John Kerry has the Democratic Party. (G-d, I wish he would go away.) And I have the "Gang of Six." Anyway, to continue piling dirt on a grave that was dug when Boise State visited Athens, here's a remark from an NFL scout in Chris Mortensen's article arguing that Jay Cutler should be the first quarterback taken in the Draft ($):

"It can't be fun playing quarterback in the SEC," the scout said. "I mean, most of the teams are five and six deep at cornerback -- it's not even close when you compare it to the Pac-10. The speed on defense across the SEC is ridiculous. The defensive coordinators, well, some of them should be coaching in the NFL. Some of them have, in fact. Playing quarterback in the SEC is a task. Playing it well every week is a bigger task."

Now, to play Devil's Advocate for the "Gang of Six" propagandists, they could point out that there are six Pac Ten QBs starting in the NFL, as compared to three SEC QBs and that's certainly a valid point. On the other hand, two of those six quarterbacks - Kyle Boller and Joey Harrington - are the two most vilified quarterbacks in the NFL by their own fan bases. Additionally, Mark Brunell is well past his sell-by date and is keeping his position warm for Jason Campbell, a product of the SEC. NFL depth charts do support the scout's statement that SEC teams have better corners than Pac Ten teams, as there are 15 starting corners in the NFL from SEC schools, as opposed to eight from Pac Ten schools. It's truly remarkable that the SEC produces so many good corners when they're only trained against Pop Warner offenses that make Woody Hayes' Ohio State offense seem complicated by comparison.

In the Cutler/Leinart/Young debate, Cutler probably is a better prospect than Vince Young. Texas runs the modern version of a college option offense. No NFL team has implemented a run-based spread offense based off of the zone read play, probably for the same reasons that the option hasn't been run in the NFL: the defenses are too smart and fast to be bamboozled by that offense, plus a quarterback will not be able to survive a whole season taking hits from NFL defenders in practice and in games. Thus, Young won't be in the best offense for him and it's anyone's guess as to whether he has the throwing skills to master an NFL offense. He didn't have to make that many hard throws at Texas because defenses were so paralyzed by the run threat. Does he have the accuracy and arm strength to make those throws in the NFL? I'm skeptical.

Cutler/Leinart is a closer call. Leinart has been as very productive quarterback throughout his college career. Yes, he has been surrounded by a lot of talent, but it's important to remember that he won the Heisman in a year in which USC had to replace their offensive line and receiver corps. He's very accurate and has enough arm strength to get the ball down the field. He seems like a Chad Pennington with more velocity. He seems very likely to succeed on the next level. Cutler is interesting. His stats weren't overwhelming this year. 6.65 yards per attempt is nothing special. Sure, he doesn't have much talent around him, certainly relative to Vandy's opponents, but Tim Couch put up huge numbers with less talent than his opponents (and look where all that production got him,) albeit in a different offense. I'm going on a gut feel, but I never got the sense that I was watching a great quarterback when I was watching Cutler. He wouldn't be a bad first round pick, but I don't see him as a top five guy, certainly not in a loaded draft.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

You didnt mention Jake Plummer, who was good this year, but is also vilified for being a ticking timebomb for game killing interceptions.

Anonymous said...

I don't even see him as a first round pick. Mort does this every year. Last year it was Matt Jones. Cutler should be a 2nd or 3rd round pick, IMO.

Michael said...

I actually kinda like Jake Plummer. He gets a bad rap for having played on some lousy Cardinals teams. He does make his share of mistakes, but he also got Denver to the AFC Title Game, which is no small feat. He didn't play well in the title game, but Denver had no running game and they also had protection issues. I'd put him in the upper half of NFL starters.

Mort sure can identify with Southern white guys. G-d help me if a short, red-headed Jewish guy ever becomes a prominent college QB. That said, Mort isn't the only one hyping Cutler.

Anonymous said...

I think Cutler is a pretty solid prospect. You mention that he had less impressive stats than Tim Couch. This strikes me as a very gang of six-ish rating of a QB. If stats were everything, wouldn't David Klingler, Tim Crouch, Andre Ware and the past few Texas Tech QBs be very successful pro QBs? Why is it that Cal in general and Ted Tedford in particular is renowned for producing great college QBs who simply do not have success at the NFL level?

My guess is that Cutler has some other quality that is often cited in regards to QBs who don't put up the best stats. Call it leadership or perhaps call it an ability to manage the offense. The QB with the best stats doesn't always end up being the most successful. I haven't seen enough of Cutler's games to offer up my own opinion, but based on the comments of people like Mort I do think he could do pretty well as an NFL player.

-Victors_Dave

Michael said...

I recall Mort being an apologist for the Mannings when they pulled their BS move to get Eli to New York in the '04 Draft and that was before Alex went to Arkansas, wasn't it? I could be wrong on that.

Anonymous said...

Could you please outline the differences between a PAC-10 offense and an SEC offense. Then explain what makes an offense "sophisticated." After defining "sophisticated" apply your logic and identify which teams from each conference run a "sophisticated" offense and support your argument. Also, briefly describe your football experience and knowledge. ("I watch football on television" is not a good reference)

Michael said...

Here are the principles:

http://heismanpundit.com/?postid=360

Basically, the offense needs to be very successful and they need to use their backs and tight ends in the passing game. Clearly, no one in the SEC qualifies, which is why Georgia was going to have so much trouble with Boise State.