Friday, July 29, 2005

Some early lines

Here are the early lines on some of the bigger games early in the college football season. While there is a school of thought that it's foolish to bet on games months in advance without knowing who the starters are and who's injured, there's also a school that says that you can get great lines months in advance before the rest of the public has come to their senses on certain picks. With that statement out of the way, here are the lines that jump out at me:

Ohio State (+1) vs. Texas - The Bucks are overrated and all, but at home at night against a one-dimensional offense? Their linebackers and defensive braintrust are much, much better than Michigan's, so using the Rose Bowl as a measuring stick for what Vince Young can do is a bad idea. The only question is whether Texas' defense, which is talented and should be very good under Gene Chizik, will eat up a Tressel-Bollman offense. Still, I'd feel pretty comfortable taking the Bucks in this one.

Miami (-3) at Florida State - I originally thought that the line was even, in which case I would have recommended betting the farm on the Canes, given that FSU is going to be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback who was prepared all summer by Jeff Bowden. (Incidentally, one nugget from Bruce Feldman's blog from the ACC meeting was that Leon Washington said that Florida State never adjusted to Miami blitzing Antrell Rolle off the edge, so he was repeatedly unblocked. Good work, Jeff.) At -3, though, I would stay clear. These games are usually close.

Florida (-3) vs. Tennessee - My thoughts on this one have already been made clear: Urban Meyer vs. John Chavis. Take the Gators.

Purdue (+2) at Arizona - Is this a sucker bet? Phil Steele's pre-season #3 is a dog at Arizona? Too good to be true? Probably.

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