Thursday, May 12, 2005

Early Thoughts on College Football

The article linked above is gratifying for me because 1) it's by a gambler, someone whose livelihood is based on actually being right (unlike most college football analysts, myself included,) and 2) I agree with what he says, especially:

1. South Carolina will be overrated because Spurrier doesn't have much talent at his disposal, unlike when he was at Florida.

2. Florida, not Tennessee, is going to be the best team in the East this year.

3. Notre Dame doesn't have much talent, so Charlie Weis will have to be a miracle worker to have a good team initially. (I disagree that their academic standards are the reason for their poor performance, but a gambler wouldn't necessarily be an expert on root causes of lack of performance.)

4. Everyone who is conceding the national title to USC are underestimating the impact on the defections on their coaching staff. Pete Carroll is a defensive coach and he just lost his offensive coordinator. That can be a serious problem. (See: O'Leary, George.)

5. The Big Ten should be fairly deep next year and Michigan and Ohio State won't be shoe-ins if the former doesn't solve their defensive issues against the run-based spread and the latter can't find a running game or a consistent quarterback.

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