Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Lottery Thoughts

1. Typical stupid statement on sports radio this morning: "It's so unlucky that the Hawks had a 25% chance of getting the first pick, the Bucks had a 6% chance, and yet the Bucks got the first pick." No wonder casinos make so much money with that ironclad logic. Yes, the Hawks had a greater chance than the Bucks, but the relevant question is rather what the Hawks' chances were against the field. They only had a one in four chance of getting the top pick, so it's not a surprising result at all that they finished with the second pick. In fact, since their chances of getting a top two pick were only marginally better than 50/50, this is a slight victory. More importantly, this isn't a year in which the first pick is worth a lot more than the second pick and in fact, it might cause the Hawks to resist falling in love with size and taking Andrew Bogut. If Chris Paul is the guy, then it's a good thing that the Bucks have the first pick, since they spent a high pick on T.J. Ford two years ago and will therefore shy away from taking Paul.

2. If one assumes that this is a four- or five-player Draft, then Billy Knight's decision to gut the team mid-season was a smart one, even aside from the first round pick that they acquired, because the extra losses ended up being the difference between picking second and picking fourth (New Orleans) or fifth (Charlotte). That said, if the Bobcats are gung-ho on moving up to get Paul or Marvin Williams, do the Hawks entertain the idea of swapping the #2 pick for the #5 and #13? If Deron Williams is still on the board, he certainly answers a major need and if he's as good for this team as Chris Paul, then it's a good deal. The Hawks could then add a Sean May (or some foreigner or high schooler about whom we know nothing) with the #13 pick. Then again, because depth isn't a great asset in the NBA like it is in the NFL, it's probably more important to get one great player than two good ones.

3. How angry did the Utah representative look? They won't get the chance to draft local icon Andrew Bogut and not only that, but the Bucks and Jail Blazers jumped over them, so they're now drafting sixth in a 4-5 player draft.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

But what about the nightmare situation of Mil taking Marvin Williams and then the Hawks have the same chance at Bogut as otherwise.